Fantasy Baseball Thoughts

Earlier I did my top 5 undervalued starting pitchers (based on the ranking at Yahoo.com). Now I will share 5 of my most over-rated fantasy baseball starting pitchers. (As I said earlier - I'm not sharing all of my thoughts because I still have my drafts in 10 days and I don't want to give away the farm here.)

Top 5 Sells (Overvalued pitchers)

1. Jason Schmidt - I know it seems like every year people are trying to sell Schmidt short but this just happens to be the year that they are right. Yahoo has Schmidt ranked 3rd among starting pitchers (ahead of both Randy Johnson and Mark Prior - as Brian Fellow would say "That's crazy talk!"). Schmidt had off-season surgery, there is no offensive support in the line-up (Bonds will have a bad year - don't get me started on that) and the bullpen is shot. Nen may be out for the year and Worrell moved on for greener pastures. Blown saves alone will cost Schmidt a couple of wins this year. I would only pick Schmidt up if he falls to a position where he could be my #3.

2. Kevin Brown - moving to the Yankees will cost him at least a run in his ERA. Brown is a sinkerball pitcher and with the exception of A-Rod at third - the Yankees are below average defensively at the remaining infield positions. I also question Brown's health and personally doubt that he'll manage more than 20 starts this year. Yahoo has Brown ranked 26th among starters but at best I would pick him to be a #3.

3. Sidney Ponson - with a new contract Ponson will be fat and happy (and probably on the IR by the 4th of July). Ponson gets shelled by the Red Sox and doesn't do much better against the Yankees - with the Blue Jays also greatly improved - I don't see Ponson having any easy games. Yahoo has him listed as 33rd best but I would only risk a pick on him as a #4 or #5 guy.

4. Jon Lieber - don't buy into the hype and waste a pick. He may not even start the season in the Yankees rotation.

5. Livan Hernandez - fantasy baseball geeks know that Livan came up huge last year with 8 complete games and a 3.20 ERA but count me among those who don't see him duplicating that production this year. Just a personal hunch. Yahoo has him as the 20th best starter but I would drop him down to about 40th.