Wednesday, July 07, 2004

Morning Rant

The big news of the day (depending if you read the front section first or the sports section first) is either John Kerry picking John Edwards to be his running mate or the Red Sox coming back to Fenway for some home cooking and winning 11-0 last night.

We'll start with the Kerry / Edwards ticket.

This was first and foremost a safe choice. Edwards is a known commodity and is generally perceived as likeable. This choice guarantees the full support of the trial lawyers in this country and with their support - their money. The Kerry / Edwards ticket won't fail due to lack of funds. Edwards (as any choice would) also brings some negatives:

- He wasn't the first choice. It is well known that Kerry lusted after John McCain.
- He's a lawyer. Cheney may have made a ton of money off Haliburton but he didn't help drive up the costs of healthcare in this country by doing so. Edwards' riches came at a cost to the common man and look for the Republicans to drive this home. (Also start watching for references of Lionel Hutz for VP.)
- The trial lawyers may be happy with the choice but the US Chamber of Commerce definitely is not. Check yesterday's Wall Street Journal for details.
- The middle of the road Democrat may be happy with the choice but the Howard Dean contingent can't be happy with Edwards (and these are the majority of campaign volunteers).
- He doesn't have GRAVITAS

Let's take a closer look at that last one because I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere yet.

Truman was added to FDR's ticket because of the work he did in the Senate controlling cost overruns and waste in military spending in a time of war. Johnson was added to JFK's ticket because he was a mover and shaker in the Senate and he could deliver Texas. Bush 1 was added to Reagan's ticket because he not only was a Senator but also a former Ambassador to China and former head of the CIA (in fact for a long time - Bush was Reagan's acting NSC chief as well as VP). Cheney was added to Bush 2's ticket not because of any state he could deliver but because of the council he could offer.

What does Edwards bring to the ticket besides a petty face and lawyer money? Where's the gravitas?

I envision the announcement of Edwards being picked being watched at the White House and getting this sort of reaction:

Cheney: Edwards that no good motherfucker lawyer.
Bush: Big time.
Rove: This is a very good thing for us.

One thing that has many Democrats happy with the choice of Edwards is how they imagine he'll do in a debate against Cheney. This has to be the most asinine reason for choosing a running mate I have ever heard (besides don't underestimate the power of Cheney to deliver two or three cutting one liners during any debate that will be ALL anyone remembers). Besides - the debate I really want to see is between Laura Bush and Theresa Heinz Kerry.

As of this morning - the Vegas line still has Bush with a comfortable -$145 to +105 advantage over Kerry (risk $145 to win $100 on Bush or risk $100 to win $105 on Kerry). So if things remain the same - so will the Bush ticket. If Kerry / Edwards picks up steam - look for Cheney to drop out for health reasons. Among the usual suspects of VP replacements (Rice, Powell, McCain, Giuliani) - I would add the wild card / dark horse of George Herbert Walker Bush. Think about what a bomb shell that would be. Talk about adding gravitas and think about how that would sew up the vote of the elderly. (Hey if he can jump out of airplanes at 80 - why not the VP job? Just the rumor of Bush the elder is bound to add some points at the polls.)

OK - now the Red Sox.

The Red Sox need to pick up the pace (they're on track to win just 88 games) and last night was a good start. As I have been saying for a long time - the best for this team is yet to come (but that doesn't mean I don't want them to go and get Todd Helton).

Many people have been critical of Terry Francona for being too player friendly but one move he could make that would show he holds a strong hand and is looking out for the best interests of the team is to go to a 4-man rotation until maybe after the first 4 games after the All-Star game. Drop Lowe into the bullpen to do this and send a clear message that this is business and not some support group for head case free agent starters.

That seems like enough ranting for this morning.

PS - no I don't know what's up with SJ.com

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