Friday, July 02, 2004

Trade Possibility

OK - I know that I recently wrote that Todd Helton may be the most untradeable player in baseball because of his contract but now I want the Red Sox to trade for him,

Todd Helton is 31-years old. He'll be 38 when his contract runs out in 7.5 years but he shown no signs of slowing down (.344 with 15 HR and 51 RBI so far this year) and has been remarkably durable. Helton in fact has only missed (or sat out) 24 games in the last 6 seasons (that's fewer games than Nomar has missed this season alone).

It should also be pointed out that Helton is NOT a creation of Coors Field. His career OPS is a HOF-like 1.043 and away from Coors it has been a very respectable .915 (and he has averaged a HR every 20 AB on the road). Compare that to Nomar who has a career OPS of .925 and has averaged a HR every 22 AB.

Most importantly - Helton is an excellent Gold Glove caliber fielder at 1st base. If you have been paying any attention to the Red Sox then you are aware that poor fielding at 1st has cost them between 3-5 games in June alone.

Why would the Rockies want to trade Helton? Because after this year - he still has 7-years and $114.5 million on his contract. That's why. And that is also why it wouldn't take very much to get Helton.

I would suggest that if the Rockies were able to pick-up $4.5 million per year on Helton's contract - then the Red Sox would be OK with paying the remaining average of $12 million per year for Helton (even though the length of the contract is much longer then they would like to accept). The Red Sox could send Kevin Millar, a prospect and maybe even Ramiro Mendoza (to make swallowing the increase in 2004 payroll more palatable) to the Rockies to get the deal done.

Psychologically the trade would also signal a move away from even conceptually resigning Nomar (because the Red Sox realistically would not be able to afford both contracts). Since this would be the case if the Red Sox traded for Helton - I would also look for the Red Sox to trade Nomar for a top pitching prospect and a shortstop in a parallel move but that is a post for another time.

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