Presidential Odds

This is unreal. You want evidence of a Bush Bounce? The betting line now stands at Bush -$200 and Kerry +$150. (This means that you would have to risk $200 to win $100 betting on Bush or risk just $100 to win $150 betting on Kerry).

I cannot recall a betting line ever being this active. Consider:

- just two days ago (September 1st) the line jumped to Bush -$175 and Kerry +135

- just two days before that (August 30th) the line had jumped to Bush -$155 and Kerry +$115

- just two days before that (August 28th) the line had jumped to Bush -$145 and Kerry +$105

After the DNC - the betting line was dead even at -$120 for both Kerry and Bush (bet $120 to win $100 with $20 vig going to the house). About two and a half weeks ago Bush pulled slighly ahead at -$130 to -$110 for Kerry.

The movement in the line has been incredible. Keep in mind that the betting line reflects a point where the "house" thinks it will be attractive to both sides. More money coming in on one side drives up the odds. Given the movement this past week - a ton of money must have been bet on Bush.

For the record I have been following the odds via off-shore casinos like Bodog.com (scroll to bottom of page) but all of the off-shore and British bookmaker lines I have checked have been consistent.