Sunday, October 24, 2004

Red Sox / Cardinals Game 1

One down - three to go! Ooohh rah! Red Sox 11, Cardinals 9.

The two numbers people will dwell on this morning are probably 11 and 4. The Red Sox offense scored 11 runs and the Red Sox defense committed 4 errors. I prefer to look at some other numbers which I think help explain what happened and may foretell what is in store.

Most of the analysis you will read or hear focuses on the offense but there are a couple pitching statistics that I think may end up telling the story of this series.

First off - home runs. St. Louis allowed 169 HR this year compared to 159 for the Sox. This difference of just 10 may seem slight but it is more pronounced when you consider that St. Louis did not have to face a DH while the Sox staff did. Simply put - the Cardinals tend to give up more home runs than the Red Sox and true to form - last night the Cardinals gave up 2 HR to the Sox allowing 1 and it was the second HR off the bat of Mark Bellhorn that proved to be the difference.

The second stat I would like to take a look at is strikeouts. Cardinal pitching struck out 1,029 batters this season. The Red Sox pitchers stuck out 1,132. Again this difference may seem slight until you consider that the Sox pitchers were striking out DH's while many of the Cardinals' K's included strikeouts by pitchers who have to bat in the NL. Again - last night true to form - Red Sox pitchers struck out 9 while Cardinal pitchers struck out just 3. You can't get a hit if you don't put the ball in play. (Oh- and I agree that the third strike on Jim Edmonds his final at bat was a ball.)

Now that I've mentioned those two indicators to keep an eye on - let's take a look at the game.

The first pitch last night was thrown out by Carl Yastrzemski - who threw a perfect strike from the rubber. Tonight I hope the Red Sox honor Johnny Pesky by letting him throw out the first pitch. I bet the 85 year old Pesky would also throw a perfect strike from the mound and not throw a ball from in front of the mound that bounces 3 feet before the plate like a certain Massachusetts politician who is seeking higher office.

Speaking of John Kerry - you won't see him at Fenway this series. He is too concerned about getting booed to attend. His campaign rightly acknowledges that getting booed at Fenway would not have a positive effect on Kerry's campaign.

I'm thinking that this morning the folks in St. Louis have a better appreciation for how balanced and dangerous the Red Sox line-up is. Only Trot Nixon among the starters failed to get at least one hit. In the early going - it looked like it would be a route as the Sox opened up a 7-2 lead (led by the 3 run bomb off the bat of David Ortiz).

Two things allowed the Cardinals to get back in the game - the extremely hot bat of Larry Walker (who went 4-5 and is slugging .755 this post season) and the inconsistent strike-zone of home plate umpire Ed Montague. It seemed like Montague had a moving strike-zone and this even caused the impeturbable Tim Wakefield to get ticked and it helped contribute to Wakefield's 4 walks in the 4th inning. It is true that the Sox benefited from the floating strike-zone with the Edmonds strike-out but here's one fan that is wishing that we don't see Montague behind the plate for the rest of the series.

Whenever the Cardinals scratched back into the game - it seemed that the Sox answered right back. The final answer being Bellhorn's 2 run blast in the 8th inning. That HR did seem to seal the deal but I admit to getting nervous when Fox showed Ben Affleck on camera in the 9th inning. I saw Affleck (who is a true fan of the Sox) and I immediately thought, "Oh God - Fox just jinxed the Sox." Happily I was wrong.

Game two tonight (I may live blog it or I may be watching the game out).

Just an aside - Boston truly is the Hub of the sports universe this weekend. Yesterday we had both Game 1 of the World Series and the Head of the Charles Regatta (which is the foremost rowing event in the country - a true international happening and good time if you ever get a chance to attend). Today we have the undefeated Patriots playing the undefeated Jets in Foxboro and Game 2 of the Series.

Good times.

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