Sunday, November 28, 2004

Red Sox Roster

Just thinking out loud.

When I go through the Red Sox roster in my head and try to figure out the total salaries to be paid out in 2005 - I come up with the following:

- With Doug Mirabelli back in the fold - that leaves 9 roster slots and about $42.5 million to spend (assuming that the Sox want to stay at $120 million or less)

- If the Sox re-sign Pedro Martinez for about $13 million per year - that leaves 8 slots with $29.5 million to spend.

- If the Red Sox have to keep BK Kim - that leaves 7 roster slots and $24.5 million to spend (Kim will make $6 million this year but the cap number is only $5 million). As an aside - don't you think Theo Epstein is trying everything he can to trade Kim?

- Those 7 slots are for shortstop, catcher, utility infielder, back-up outfielder, starting pitcher and 2 middle relief guys. Shortstop (Orlando Cabrera), catcher (Jason Varitek) and starter (Derek Lowe's spot) are the three most important spots to fill.

- Varitek is looking for about $10 million per year, Cabrera probably wants about $8 million and a third starter is probably going to cost between $7-9 million per year. That's $26 million for those three players when there's only $24.5 million left to spend and 4 other spots to fill.

- If all three (Cabrera, Varitek and Lowe) were given arbitration and accepted - it would probably cost the Red Sox about $22-23 million.

- The Sox have offered Varitek a contract worth $8.5 million per year. That would leave 6 roster slots and $16 million to spend.

- The Sox need a top 3rd starter - so they will probably have to spend between $7-9 million there. That would leave 5 roster slots and just about $8 million. That means that the Sox can't afford a shortstop in Cabrera's price range (which explains why they have not extended any offers to Cabrera as of yet).

- Of course if Pedro doesn't re-sign - then the entire math is different. The bottom line is that the Sox can't afford everyone and right now it looks like Cabrera is on the outside looking in. Of course if Varitek goes for more money elsewhere - then Cabrera is back in (even though the Sox have Hanley Ramirez about a year away). If Pedro goes elsewhere then both Varitek and Cabrera are back in the tent.

Of course I could be completely wrong.

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