Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Super Bowl Betting

I have no clue on who will win the Super Bowl or if the game will go over or under. My guess is that the Colts win the game but can they cover the 7 points? This game could be a shoot-out but even a 27-21 game won't go over the current 48.5 point over/under line. What to do?

Well because I'm unsure - I'm looking to get creative. My current plan is to make the four following bets:

Colts (-7) teased with the Over (48.5)
Bears (+7) teased with the Over (48.5)
Colts (-7) teased with the Under (48.5)
Bears (+7) teased with the Under (48.5)

These four bets would create a "middle" where if the Colts won by between 2 and 12 points and the point total was from 43 points and 54 points (a 12 point window) then I would win all four bets.

Put it this way - if all bets were for a mythical $100 then the most I could lose would be $200 but the most I could win would be $400 (the most you could lose is $200 because one of the bets HAS to come in and that winning bet would cancel out a second bet and leave just two bets to pay off). Plus there is a very good chance that two of the bets come in - say the Bears win and the combined score is from 43 to 54 points - in which case you come out even.

Of the last 10 Super Bowls - 60% were won between 2 and 12 points but only 20% had final point totals between 32 and 54 points. The risk is obviously real with the above strategy but is it worth the reward?

Help me decide whether the four bet strategy mentioned above is a good idea or a bad idea.

Of course the above discussion is for entertainment purposes only.

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