Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Coco vs Wily Mo

Around Boston there is a brewing argument over who should be starting in the outfield for the Red Sox - Coco Crisp or Wily Mo Pena. I mention this because earlier today while I was driving I heard both Dale and Holley from WEEI continually dismiss the idea with the "its only been six-games" logic - even though caller after caller was bringing it up. Seldom have I heard two radio guys more tone deaf to what the callers were saying.

Now I'm not saying that I agree that Crisp should be dumped for Wily Mo but what I am saying is that the argument has some valid points and should not be dismissed out of hand.

1. Its not just six games - Crisp was with the Red Sox for 105 games last year while Wily Mo played 84 for the Red Sox (both had injury issues). Here's how they compared:

Crisp: .264 BA / .317 OBP / .702 OPS / 22 SB / 8 HR
Pena: .301 BA / .349 OBP / .838 OPS / 0 SB / 11 HR

The raw offensive numbers clearly favor Wily Mo (with the exception of stolen bases). So its not just six games - it was the whole sample size from last season that is in many people's minds.

2. Defensively - yes Crisp can track down more balls in centerfield but his arm is so weak that runners almost always take the extra base on him. Wily Mo has a pretty good arm - so the balls he wouldn't reach would be made up by keeping runners from automatically advancing. Defense is a wash in my mind.

3. The Red Sox gave up Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena and there are many fans who want Wily Mo to get the at bats to see if that trade was worth it. Whereas, there is a bit of an undercurrent of unhappiness regarding Crisp because his arrival was so heralded and Crisp cashed in with a number of commercials right off the bat. Skeptical New England fans are wondering if they were sold a bill of goods with Coco Crisp and there is some resentment building against the guy.

4. The bottom half of the batting order is pretty average. Last year Mike Lowell has a bit above league average as far as hitting (106 OPS+), Jason Varitek was below average (85 OPS+) and Coco Crisp was the worst of the trio (80 OPS+). (Dustin Pedroia is a rookie but he's batting 9th for a reason). Wily Mo had an OPS+ of 112 and his presence instead of Crisp could really kick start the second half of the offense. The second half of the batting order is a problem that is a sleeping giant for Red Sox Nation.

So it may be early in the season to make a change - but the argument for change in the outfield for the Red Sox can definitely be made.

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