Monday, July 28, 2008

The Manny Drama

If you've read this space for any length of time - you probably realize that I'm a fan of Manny Ramirez (and often an apologist as well). Like many Manny defenders - I'm done.

The situation as I see it is as follows:

- Manny Ramirez is a future Hall of Fame player who at 36-years old is past his prime but still very productive and still one of the top right-handed bats in the game.

- Manny's antics have gone from puzzling to cute to just plain annoying distractions.

- Manny has two team options each at $20 million per year on a contract he signed in 2001 negotiated by then agent Jeff Moorad. Now Manny's agent is Scott Boras who will not see a penny if those team options are exercised but who will get paid if Manny gets to sign a new multi-year deal elsewhere.

- Manny has said he is open to being traded if the trade helps the Red Sox.

The first question to ask is can Manny be traded? I'd assume that only a playoff contending team would be interested. It's unlikely that the Red Sox would trade him to an AL team. The Yankees are obviously out of the running. I doubt the Twins would make such a deal. The White Sox are set in the outfield and at DH. Ditto to a lesser degree the Tigers. The Angels could use a DH but I doubt the Red Sox would make a trade to a team they will probably play in the postseason.

That leaves the NL. The Mets have long coveted Manny but do they have the prospects to make it worth while? Ditto the Phillies. The Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals are pretty well set in the outfield. The two most logical places for Manny to land are the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. Both teams need offense and both teams have fairly well stocked farm systems. The problem with prospects is that they don't help you win right now and the Red Sox want to win this year.

That means that logically what will probably happen is that Manny plays out the rest of the year with the Red Sox and then the team declines the 2009 option making him a free agent. That's the popular belief right now. However, I can see another scenario that in my mind is even more likely. Manny plays out the season and the Red Sox pick up his 2009 option with the intention of trading him. That would be a big "screw you" to both Manny and Scott Boras for bringing these distractions down upon the Red Sox in a pennant race. That's my best guess to what will happen.

The Red Sox pick up the 2009 option and then allow Scott Boras to broker a deal so that Manny gets a new contract (at I'm guessing less than $20 million per year) and the Red Sox get prospects in return. If Manny's agent brokers the deal how can he say no? This also puts the Red Sox in the drivers seat as they would have final say on yea or nay to any deal.

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