Saturday, July 12, 2008

The Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers GM Jon Daniels has a contract through the 2011 season. The way I see it - Daniels is safe (as long as there is no major collapse) until he gets to field "his" team in 2010.

The Rangers are solid up the middle. They have Gerald Laid at catcher; Ian Kinsler at 2nd (locked up till 2013); Michael Young at short (also locked up till 2013) and Josh Hamilton in centerfield. In addition David Murphy and Jarrod Saltalamacchia look like they will be productive low-cost players in the starting nine.

That leaves 3rd base, a corner outfielder and a 1st / DH. Hopefully Chris Davis who has hit 5 HR in 14 games this year in Arlington will be the answer at 3rd. The Texas farm system is getting better and maybe the holes can be filled by prospects like Chris Davis. However, to become a playoff threat team - some free agents will need to be signed. But where will that money come from?

Consider the situation of the following players:

Kevin Millwood is the highest paid Ranger but his contract is actually very favorable to Texas. Millwood has to pitch 273 inning between this season and next (or 180 innings next season) or the Rangers can opt out of the last year of the deal ($12 million in 2010). Who knows though? $12 million may be the going rate for a 180 IP per year pitcher with a league average ERA.

Vicente Padilla also has a $12 million 2010 option. So basically if neither pitcher is performing up to club expectations then the team can save more than a third of their payroll and start anew for new starters.

Hank Blalock has a team option of $6.2 million for 2009. Unless Blalock catches fire in the second half - I don't see the Rangers picking up that option. You can't catch fire from the DL.

That's over $30 million of payroll that can be shed by the time the 2010 season comes around.

If I were in Jon Daniels shoes' I would target the following 3 free agents to field as competitive team as possible in 2010.

1. Derek Lowe - free agent after this season. His sinkerball could be just the right pitch in the heat of Arlington.

2. Jason Bay - free agent after the 2009 season. He would add another big bat to an already potent line-up.

3. Justin Duchscherer - free agent after 2009 season. This has been Duchscherer's breakout season but I think he's the real deal.

Those three players would cost more than the $30 million that was just trimmed but it would be worth it. Justin Duchscherer and Derek Lowe at the top of the rotation with that potent Ranger line-up would make the Rangers a very competitive team come 2010.

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