Sunday, November 17, 2019

New Vehicle Sales

Saw this chart (left) with this "explanation" for slowing vehicle sales:

"Vehicle sales falling in almost every major market while GDP grows. New territory.

At some point we're going to have to acknowledge that either:

1. New mobility models and generational shifts are having a real impact.
2. There's a global recession coming
3. Both 1 and 2"

I see global vehicle sales falling and I assume it is mainly for three reasons (and none of them are related to a global recession):

1. Vehicles are built to last these days. Growing up if a car hit 200,000 miles it was cause for a newspaper story and maybe even a commercial by the car manufacturer. Today it is pretty common for cars to hit 200,000 miles. People are holding on to their vehicles longer than in the past.
2. It used to be that new college graduates were a big segment of the new car market but with the explosion of college related debt many new graduates are loath to add to their monthly nut.
3. People have come to realize that a new car loses a significant amount of value the minute to leaves the dealer lot. Many have decided to forego the new car market for a used car instead.

That's what I see when I see the above graph.

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