Presidential Debates vs. Playoff Baseball

President Bush is likely to get a big assist from Major League Baseball in his efforts to get re-elected.

Conventional wisdom says that Bush can only really harm himself with his performances at the debates and that Kerry really needs to hit home runs in each of the remaining debates to have a chance to win on November 2nd. Kerry needs to reach a wide audience especially the so-called "NASCAR dads" to have a chance but Major League Baseball will be putting a major league crimp in his chances.

Most people have already decided who they are going to vote for but many voters (enough to swing the election) haven't given the matter a whole lot of thought and might be swayed at the last moment by a strong performance in a debate. But to be swayed - the voter will probably have to actually see the debate. That's where baseball comes in.

Today was the end of the regular season and playoffs start October 5th. That also happens to be the date of the Vice Presidential Debate. The debate starts at 9:00 EST but there will be a playoff game between the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins already in progress (8:00 starting time). The baseball game is sure to drag off many of the undecided men.

On October 8th we will have the second Presidential Debate - again starting at 9:00 EST. Again the debate will be head to head with a Yankees / Twins playoff game. The closest some guys will get to politics on this night is seeing Rudy Giuliani root on the Yankees at the Metrodome (and that could have a subconscious effect on the undecideds as well). This game is scheduled to be broadcast by ESPN and I'm willing to bet that ESPN pulls in three-times the ratings of Fox News (and Fox will have the best ratings of all the people carrying the debate).

The final debate is scheduled to start at 9:00 on Wednesday, October 13th. There is the potential that debate could be head to head with a prime-time battle between the Red Sox and Yankees. October 13th is scheduled to be game 2 of the American League Championship Series and game 1 of the National League Championship Series. One of those games will be in prime-time. The debate has no chance of getting "regular guys" to tune in.

It should be recalled that President Bush was President of the Texas Rangers before he was President of the United States - so the possibility exists for the Kerry camp to cry foul on the baseball programming. There is absolutely no chance MLB would reschedule the games though because why should they give up the chance to broadcast the games with little programming competition? If they rescheduled the games then they might line-up against a CSI show and thus harm their advertising revenue.

The first debate only had to contend with an Air Force vs. Navy football game on ESPN in terms of head to head programming (and I'm pretty sure that those who watched those two teams play are pretty much decided on who they want as Commander in Chief). If the service academies didn't have to reschedule - why should baseball?

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Go Red Sox!