Top 5 - NL ROY Candidates

Here are who I see as the top 5 candidates for the National League Rookie of the Year Award:

1. Ryan Braun Brewers
2. Troy Tulowitzki Rockies
3. Hunter Pence Astros
4. Tim Lincecum Giants
5. Josh Hamilton Reds

I have to think that Braun's number will be too sexy for voters to ignore (25 HR and a .331 batting average) but keep in mind that Tulowitzki actually leads Braun in Win Shares (17 to 16) for those sabermetrically inclined.

Top 5 - Baseball Players Born in Louisiana

Here are who I consider to be the top 5 baseball players born in Louisiana.

1. Mel Ott - Hall of Famer who 6-times led the league in HR and was named to 12 All-Star teams
2. Bill Dickey - Hall of Fame catcher
3. Ron Guidry - just having the name "Louisiana Lightning" is good enough to be on the list
4. Lee Smith - his 478 saves are second all-time but that's still not enough to get him into the Hall of Fame
5. Albert Belle - 9 straight seasons of 100 or more RBI. Three times led the league in RBI. Injury ended his career at 33-years old. Major league jerk.

Just missing the cut:
Will Clark - 6-time All-Star who had over 1100 runs and 1200 RBI
Rusty Staub - 6-time All-Star and 50th all-time in RBI

I hope someday that Jonathan Papelbon will be in the top 5 in this list. Special mention goes to JR Richard whose brilliant career was cut short by a stroke,

Reuters - WTF?

I was reading this article from Reuters (with no by-line by the way) about "100 insurgents killed in Afghan battle" when a paragraph in the article stopped me in my tracks:

No official from the Taliban, who lead the insurgency against Western troops and the Afghan government, could be immediately reached for comment.

WTF? Talk about being in bed with the enemy. Do Reuters reporters have Taliban officials on their speed dial?

Jim Caple - Who's Not Now

It has been a couple of years since I've read anything by Jim Caple on ESPN.com's Page 2. I'm sure Jim Caple is a nice guy but he's a baseball writer who's not informative and he's a wannabe humor writer who's not funny. Sorry - that's the truth.

I only bring this up because I was reminded of why I don't read Caple after sampling his latest piece titled Shut Up, Red Sox Nation.

Caple complains that Red Sox fans have become obnoxious since winning the World Series and explains that he used to be a Red Sox fan. My question immediately after hearing Caple list his bona fides as a Red Sox fan was to ask, "What team are you a fan of now?" My guess is that once Caple became a sportswriter that he stopped being a fan and started being a critic. It seems like he stopped rooting for things and started rooting against things. He's become the anti-Peter Gammons whose love of the game and knowledge of the game are enhanced by the fact that Gammons never stopped being a fan.

Seriously - read Caple's column and ask yourself if he comes off as humorous and informative or if he just sounds mean-spirited and negative. Can you point out anything positive in Caple's article? People who are negative all the time tend to get tuned out and I guess that I've tuned Caple out.

Oh and the second part of your column where talk about Wes Littleton getting a save in the Rangers' 30-3 victory - didn't Tim Kurkjian cover that the night it happened over a week ago? Jim Caple - your baseball insight is - to use an ESPN phrase - so NOW.

Caple also commits my pet peeve of being a sportswriter who brings politics into their columns. Comments like, "If only we had that sort of foresight before invading Iraq" tick me off. Hey Jim - does this mean I should mark you down as a person who thinks Saddam Hussein should have been kept in power. What were your stances on the Oil for Food programs and enforcing the No-Fly zones? Should I mark you down as a person who supports state torture (including rape rooms) and mass graves?

I'd suggest that Caple write about sports when he's supposed to be writing about sports and leave politics to people who write about politics but what's the difference - I doubt I'll be reading anything else that Jim Caple writes.

A Question

It just occurred to me that John Edwards and Larry Craig served in the US Senate at the same time. While they were in the Senate together - I wonder if John Edwards was ever nervous that Larry Craig was going to try and "snake" him?

Someone should ask Edwards this question out on the campaign trail.

Top 5 - 2007 AL ROY

Here's how I see the 2007 AL Rookie of the Year:

1. Dustin Pedroia Red Sox
2. Reggie Willits Angels
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka Red Sox
4. Brian Bannister Royals
5. (tie) Jeremy Guthrie Orioles (tie) Hideki Okajima Red Sox

Here is my thinking on how I ranked the players:

Just like how position players normally get many more votes in MVP voting - there is also a weighted bias toward position players in the ROY voting as well. Pedroia gets the top nod because he's played since Opening Day and he has an 86 point advantage in OPS over Willits among other reasons. Pedroia may be hurt by the fact that he has two teammates in the running for the award as well as the fact that there are 4 legitimate East Coast candidates whereas Willits just has Bannister of the Royals west of the Mississippi.

I have Dice-K ranked above Bannister and Guthrie because he is far ahead in starts, IP and K's. Those 5 extra starts Dice-K has over Bannister and Guthrie have lots of value to me. Ask yourself if Bannister and Guthrie had those 5 extra starts - what are the odds that they would have been bombed in one of those starts and raised their ERA's above 4.00? I tend to value IP as one of best indicators of a pitcher's value to a team.

Senator Larry Craig

I wasn't going to comment on this situation because I'm of two minds.

First off - I travel a lot and like the idea of being free to go into a restroom or a rest area without being approached by creepy guys looking to give or get a BJ. I also understand the schadenfreude that the Left is getting out of Sen. Craig's predicament and I don't begrudge them at all.

However, if you want to go into Clinton-parse-mode you have to ask where the lewd behavior or solicitation for sex is in this situation. I mean - if there is one thing that Bill Clinton taught the country is that oral sex doesn't count as sex. Right? If there is no sex - how can there be any lewd behavior on the part of Senator Craig?

Farm Subsidies

I was surprised by this and made a little angry by it.

Maybe its because I'm Irish and have an inbred loathing of absentee agricultural landlords. Maybe I just loathe the wasting my hard-earned tax dollars. Whatever it was - that little map got my blood up.

I'm a fan of the family farmer but in no way do those people in Manhattan qualify as yeoman farmers in the Jeffersonian sense. How hard would it be to simply re-craft the laws to make only farmers with an income under $500,000 and who live within 2 miles of their farm property eligible for subsidies? I hate to be bringing common sense to a governmental program but come on!

Some may ask "why have the farm subsidiaries at all?" Why not let the market forces work their magic? I can understand that point of view but I do see value in helping the small family farmer. They do need assistance in competing with the big corporate farming and dairy combines. If just for the peace of mind of knowing that not every glass of milk I drink or steak I eat comes from a cow penned into an awful factory existence is worth it for me.

M-U-S-S-I-N-A

Heh heh - this is pretty clever.

HT Sports Frog

Aaron Rowand

Happy 30th birthday to Phillies centerfielder Aaron Rowand.

Roward is a scrappy (I think its a rule that you have to call him that) player who gives it his all when he's on the field. Because of his effort - Rowand is a fan favorite in Chicago and in Philadelphia. However, because Rowand goes all-out he is prone to injury (tossing your body around with abandon tends to do that). Rowand is also a free-agent at the end of the season.

This offseason's Hot Stove "action" will be dominated with talk about centerfielders. You have Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter and Aaron Rowand topping the bill. Since today is Rowand's birthday - I wanted to take a moment to talk about him.

Baseball-Reference.com has Mike Lamb, Milton Bradley and Eric Byrnes as the three most similar batters to Rowand. That's not exactly Hall of Fame company. Me - I like to think of Rowand as a poor man's Johnny Damon and I mean that with no disrespect to either player.

The players are similar in that they both are excellent fielders who play with abandon but are tough enough to play through the dings that come with throwing your body around trying to win games for the team. They both have some pop in their bats (both players have hit 20 or more HR twice) and they both get on base at a similar clip (.343 career OBP for Rowand vs a .353 career OBP for Damon). I would give the base stealing edge to Damon and the outfield arm edge to Rowand (there are very few outfielders with a worse arm than Damon).

Damon signed a 4-year $52 million deal with the Yankees in 2006. Johnny Damon was 32-years old at the time. Rowand will be 30-years old when he signs his big free-agent contract but unlike Damon - Rowand won't have either the Yankees or Red Sox bidding for his services. I can see Rowand getting a contract in the 4-year $40 million range and I would not be surprised to see him re-sign with either the Phillies or White Sox. The age difference means that the team that signs Rowand will probably get full value for their contract whereas the Yankees will be looking to eat parts of or most of the final two years of Damon's contract. In fact - between the Phillies and White Sox - I would not be surprised if the Yankees propose a trade to the team that loses out on Rowand to take Damon at a discount for the 2008 and 2009 seasons.

Remember - if the Yankees trade Damon (and to do that - they will have to eat about 50% of the contract) - they are freed up to sign Andruw Jones to replace A-Rod's HR in the line-up if A-Rod takes a walk as expected.

Its going to be an interesting offseason.

Top 5 - Baseball Players Born in Mississippi

Here are who I consider the top 5 baseball players born in Mississippi.

1. Dave Parker - the 1978 MVP - his admitted use of cocaine may have kept him out of the Hall of Fame
2. Ellis Burks - over 1200 runs and RBI
3. Frank White - 5-time All-Star and 8-time Gold Glove Winner
4. George Scott - the "Boomer" was a big hitter but don't forget that he also had 8 Gold Gloves
5. Roy Oswalt - one of the top pitchers in the NL

Dustin Pedroia

Excellent interview with Dustin Pedroia's college coach - Pat Murphy:

He’s really willed his way to the big leagues…he really has. Let’s break it down: He’s 5-foot-6, he’s can’t run, he’s not strong, his bat speed and his hands are tremendous because his arms are only about 11 inches long and so close to his body that he’s not getting to anything hit 5 or 6 inches to the right or left of him and he doesn’t have a lick of athletic ability…yet he’s a rookie of the year candidate.

HT Boston Sports Media Watch

Red Sox Magic Number - 24

With the Yankees getting absolutely pasted by the Tigers last night - the Red Sox magic number is now 24.

The number 24 will present a quandary for the Red Sox front office in the coming years. It happens to be the uniform number of certain first ballot Hall of Famer Manny Ramirez who should easily be in the top 20 in HR and RBI when he retires. Manny is under contract for 2008 and the team holds options for the 2009 and 2010 seasons but those options will come at a cost of $20 million per year. I have the suspicion that this is Manny's last contract and that his last year in a Red Sox uniform will also be his last year in baseball.

The quandary for the Red Sox will be threefold. First - do the Red Sox exercise the option years? Manny's numbers are down this year. Is this a trend? The Red Sox should have a clear idea by the end of next season. Second - unless Manny stays with the team through the 2010 season - he will have fewer than 10 seasons with the Red Sox. One of the official team guidelines for retiring a player's number is having played at least 10 seasons with the Red Sox (the other two are being elected to the Hall of Fame and having retired in a Red Sox uniform). Do they waive the 10-year rule for Manny? Manny has been an All-Star every year he's been in Boston and he was the MVP of the Red Sox first World Series victory in 86 years.

The final quandary will be if they do retire Manny's number - what do they say to Dwight Evans and Jim Rice? Dwight Evans also wore the number 24 and he's currently over 120 HR and over 500 RBI ahead of Manny on the Red Sox all-time lists for HR and RBI. If they honor Manny by retiring the number 24 - what do they say to the man who played 19 seasons for the Red Sox and who will probably have as many Gold Gloves for the Red Sox as Manny has All-Star game appearances? Do they retire the number 24 and say it is for both Manny and Dewey?

If they do that - what do they say to Jim Rice? No player has worn Jim Rice's 14 since Rice retired. If Jim Rice gets elected to the Hall of Fame - then it is almost a given that the Red Sox will retire his number. That's a big "if" though and realistically it looks like Rice will fall just short of election to the Hall. Retring Rice's number is a pretty easy call in my mind.

Maybe the biggest question to answer is the first one.

The number 24 also happens to be the number of beers in a case. I think I'll go out this afternoon and buy myself a case of beer to watch the Red Sox dash the Yankees Wildcard hopes. My quandary will also be threefold - do I buy Sam Adams, Bud Light or Wachusett?

Astros Fire Tim Purpura and Phil Garner

Today the Houston Astros fired Tim Purpura and Phil Garner. Two years ago the Astros went to the World Series and under Garner and Purpura was a long-time employee. Now both are unemployed. In medical terms - a "Purpura is the appearance of red or purple discolorations on the skin, caused by bleeding underneath the skin". I get the feeling that these firings may have been because something that got under owner Drayton McLane's skin.

Besides the obvious fact that the Astros are a hair's breath from having the worst record in the entire National League - many of the Astros players are under-preforming. My guess is that McLane is tired of the inmates running the asylum and with Jeff Bagwell retired, Craig Biggio done at the end of the season - I'd look for a mini-house cleaning which would include the popular in the clubhouse but pop-gun at the plate Brad Ausmus. I think its fair to say that the house-cleaning started today with Garner and Purpura.

This season the Astros had a $87 million payroll. Much of that number comes from three core players Carlos Lee (signed till 2012 with a 6-year $100 million deal), Lance Berkman (signed through 2010 with a 2011 option) and Roy Oswalt (signed through 2011). Those three players will use up about $40 million in payroll in 2008. Houston also has starter Woody Williams on the books in 2008 for $6.25 million. That will leave about $40 million for about 21 more players. A limited budget (assuming that McLane will insist in a budget similar or less than this year's) and high expectations for winning seem like a perfect fit for a Moneyball guy. Lucky for the Astros that Paul DePodesta is available.

The Rangers have wonderboy Josh Daniels and DePodesta has a much better resume. With Tal Smith around DePodesta could be freed up to just manage the roster and develop the farm system. Hiring a fan and press friendly manager would also work to provide cover to a guy like DePodesta. I wonder if Bobby Valentine would be interested in coming back to America? What about the always-smiling Tony Pena?

I would look for the following players and their 2007 salaries to be castoff this offseason:

Jason Jennings $5.5 million
Craig Biggio $5 million
Brad Ausmus - $3.5 million
Adam Everett - $2.8 million
Mike Lamb $2.5 million
Mark Loretta $2.5 million

Including the money from the now-departed Morgan Ensberg - that's over $26 million of wiggle room for the new GM. The primary needs will be a catcher, shortstop and second base. They will also need a veteran starter to shore up the back of the rotation. I wouldn't be surprised if the Astros worked an incentive laden contract with Kerry Wood, Kris Benson or Matt Clement.

Wow - Just Wow!

This is a must read story from Iraq.

When tales of bravery are told it is not uncommon to hear the remark - "Where do we find such brave men?" In this case the the question would be "Where do we find such brave women?"

HT Instpundit

Red Sox Magic Number - 25

The Red Sox magic number is currently 25.

The number 25 is currently worn by Red Sox 3rd baseman Mike Lowell. I have long been of the opinion that the Red Sox should re-sign Mike Lowell for another year or two. In spring training they probably could have extended him for just another year but now it will probably take a minimum of a two-year contract to get him to come back.

Mike Lowell has said that he really wants to stay in Boston and the value of a player who not only can handle the pressure of playing in Boston but thrives in that environment should not be underestimated. Lowell is a leader both on the field and in the clubhouse and even if his offense declines over the next two years - he still brings Gold Glove caliber defense to the table. Red Sox fans want Mike Lowell to come back - they don't want A-Rod.

To older Red Sox fans - the number 25 means Tony C - Tony Conigliaro. I'm too young to remember Tony C. but I realize that to many Tony C was really something special.

In terms of wedding anniversaries - 25 is the Silver Anniversary. Looking at the Red Sox - even though they have the best record in baseball - I think the team will earn only one Silver Slugger award this year. At 2nd base - Dustin Pedroia has an uphill battle trying to wrest the award from the likes of Placido Polanco, Brian Roberts and Robinson Cano. Manny Ramirez has won 8 consecutive Silver Slugger Awards (in 2002 as a DH) but that streak is in jeopardy. The awards this year probably goes to Magglio Ordonez, Ichiro Suzuki and Vlade Guererro. David Ortiz has to be the leader to win the Silver Slugger at DH but you never know.

There was about an hour and a half period yesterday when the Red Sox magic number was 26. I was going to use that opportunity to mention that the Red Sox will not be retiring the number 26 to honor Wade Boggs. Since Boggs left the Red Sox - 11 players have worn the number 26. It is a token of the esteem not felt toward Boggs that players like Lou Merloni and Freddy Sanchez have been given that number after the selfish bastard Boggs took his act on the road. Boggs was inducted into the Hall of Fame two years ago. If the Red Sox owners felt inclined to honor Boggs - they would have announced it by now.

Top 5 - Baseball Players from Alabama

Here are who I consider the top 5 baseball players born in Alabama.

1. Hank Aaron - the undisputed RBI king and in my mind still the true Home Run King
2. Willie Mays - in almost any other state - Willie Mays would be #1
3. Satchel Paige - one of the greatest pitchers of all-time
4. Willie McCovey - Hall of Fame 1st baseman
5. Ozzie Smith - Hall of Fame shortstop - one of the greatest defensive players in history - 13 consecutive Gold Gloves

I wasn't prepared for the number of great players from the State of Alabama. The above top 5 players would give any state a run for its money and consider that the following Hall of Famers did not even make the list.

Heinie Manush - Hall of Fame outfielder and one of the all-time great names in sports
Joe Sewell - Hall of Fame infielder
Billy Williams - Hall of Fame outfielder for the Cubbies
Don Sutton - Hall of Fame Pitcher - 324 career victories
Early Winn - Hall of Fame pitcher - exactly 300 career wins

I couldn't help but think that you could put together a great all-time team from Alabama. The two weak positions would be at catcher and closer but you could have Bo Jackson coming off the bench and George Foster at DH.

Michael Vick's House

Yesterday, for some reason, I got thinking about Michael Vick's house in Virginia where the dog-fighting and dog murders took place. Specifically, I had two things I wondered about:

1. A twist on the old question - "Would you buy a murder house?" If you had a chance to buy Michael Vick's house at 1915 Moonlight Road at a discount - would you? For me a house with an assessed value of over $700,000 has to have a pool and this house does not. That takes me out of the running for buying a house like that and living there. The only way I would consider buying that house is if the discount was so big that I had the opportunity to immediately put it back on the market and realize a profit of over $50,000. Call me mercenary or merciless but I'm not a believer in lingering spirits (especially dog spirits).

2. That house was purchased by Vick for just $30,000 in 2001 and the assessed value today is $747,000? Vick basically got that house for free. What is the story behind that? Some enterprising journalist should follow up on this because there is definitely a story behind the original purchase of the house.

Red Sox Magic Number - 27

The Red Sox magic number is now 27.

The number 27 is no longer available for Red Sox players because Boston retired the number to honor Carlton Fisk. Interestingly enough - Jason Varitek is only 20 HR behind Fisk on the all-time Red Sox list and already ahead of Fisk by 31 in RBI.

AFC East Preview

Here's what I predict for the AFC East

New England Patriots 13-3
New York Jets 8-8
Miami Dolphins 6-10
Buffalo Bills 4-12

New England Patriots - If Tom Brady and to a lesser extent Laurence Maroney remain healthy - then the Patriots finish the season with the best record in the AFC. If Tom Brady or to a lesser extent Laurence Maroney get hurt - then the Patriots turn into the Bengals with a better defense. Tom Brady staying healthy for the season is not a given. The offensive line for the Patriots is the real question mark and Pats fans can only hope that the coaching staff employs max protection schemes much more this year than in the past to help keep Brady from getting creamed on a regular basis.

The Patriots have perhaps the best defensive line in football. Many critics have pointed out the advanced age of the linebackers as a potential trouble spot but these critics ignore the fact that the defensive live will do a good job of keeping blockers off the linebackers and that linebackers in a Belichick defense rely as much on their smarts as physical ability. The Patriots have the most savvy group of linebackers in football.

Many fantasy football fans are high on Laurence Maroney but before you draft him too high consider that many of the goal-line carries may actually go to fullback Sammy Morris who could turn into a poor man's Mike Alstott.

New York Jets - It's hard to imagine that Chad Pennington is going into his 8th pro season. Where did the time go? By now, however, what type of player Pennington happens to be has been made clear. He's a QB who does not make many mistakes but who does not possess the strongest of arms. I get the feeling that Pennington won't last the season without getting hurt though. The Jets don't have much of a running game and I think the defenses they face will be blitzing Pennington on most of the plays.

Bodog has the over / under for the Jets pegged at 8 wins. I think that number is spot on.

Miami Dolphins - The Dolphins let Wes Welker walk and sign with the Patriots and they then turned around and drafted Ted Ginn Jr. The universal reaction was "WTF?" I half -hope Brady Quinn turns into the next Dan Marino just to screw with the Dolphins.

Trent Green is one of the most likable players in the NFL and if any QB in the NFL knows how to run an offense that has a good running game but replacement level receivers - its Green who had that same situation in Kansas City. Even if Green has a good season - I still don't see the Dolphins doing better than 6-10.

Buffalo Bills - I covered the Bills earlier. I see them going 4-12.