Budweiser Upside Down Clown



Perhaps my favorite Super Bowl commercial of all-time. It was only aired once during the Super Bowl but then pulled because many people thought it was distasteful. I thought it was funny.

George Bush - the Original Zionist

George Bush - no not that one - the other one - no not that one either - was perhaps the original Zionist. The George Bush I'm talking about was born in 1796 and was the first cousin of George W. Bush's great- great- great- grandfather.

This George Bush was also perhaps the first person to advocate a new state for Jews in Palestine. Bush's 1844 work, The Valley of Vision or The Dry Bones of Israel Revived called for a new state of Israel. I guess you could say that support for the state of Israel runs in the blood of the Bush family.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

On one hand you have to feel for Patriots back-up QB Matt Cassel because he's always a bridesmaid and never a bride. Cassel was a back-up in college (at USC to Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart) and now he's a back-up to Tom Brady. You know the guy wants a shot to show people what he can do. On the other hand - being back-up to Tom Brady has to be a great gig to have... Today would have been Jackie Robinson's 89th birthday... Plaxico Burress's prediction of a 23-17 Giants victory will help the Patriots in a subtle way. I'm thinking that the Patriots will make it a point to bump, push, and shove Burress at every opportunity. This extra contact could wear down the receiver just enough so that he's slow on a route or maybe drops a pass. The refs will probably let the Patriots get away with a little extra because subconsciously they might think that Burress brought it on himself... Today is Nolan Ryan's 61st birthday.. Professional back-up Matt Cassel should take comfort in having a better pro career than Heisman Trophy winners Danny Wuerffel - 1996, Chris Weinke - 2000 (who holds the NFL record for most consecutive losses by a quarterback in a season at 14), Eric Crouch - 2001 and Jason White - 2003 (who never even got a regular season snap in the NFL)... I played cards last night and a guy at my table saw the Georgetown / St. John's halftime score and said "Wow - St. John's is getting beat 41-14." Another guy at the table asked, "Is that a women's game?" The first guy then shouted over to a friend at the next table, "Hey Joe - did you see the St. John's score? They're getting beat 41-14." A guy at the second table asked, "Is that a women's game?" The final score ended up being 74-42. St. John's should have kept Kevin Clark as coach.

The Beatles Last Performance



On this day 29 years ago - the Beatles made their last public performance. The gig was on the roof of Apple records and I imagine aging hippies who've since joined PETA are today conflicted about the "concert".

Johan Santana and the Red Sox

As a Red Sox fan there are three major pluses to Johan Santana being traded to the Mets.

1. The Red Sox get to keep their young players. There was a growing sentiment that people wanted to keep the Jacoby Ellsbury's, the John Lester's, the Justin Masterson's, and the Jed Lowrie's. Watching the young players mature can be quite exciting and it gives the fan a special feeling of ownership watching homegrown talent blossom.

2. The Yankees didn't get him.

3. With Santana in the NL - the chances are the Red Sox won't have to face Santana at all.

There is one downside to the trade as far as Red Sox fans are concerned. With Santana out of the AL Central - that makes it easier for Detroit and Cleveland to rack up more wins against the Twins. That in turn will make it easier for one of those clubs to compete for the Wild Card playoff spot which seems to have been the birthright of the AL East and the Yankees and Red Sox these past many years.

Johan Santana Trade

It looks like Johan Santana is getting traded to the Mets (pending physical and the Mets signing Santana to an extension). The Twins will be receiving outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra in exchange for Santana.

It seems many people think that this deal is less than what the Twins could have gotten if they had made a deal with the Red Sox or Yankees at the Winter Meetings. I agree.

The Transaction Guy has a nice first look at the trade.

My first thought was to wonder how this trade stacks up to some other recent blockbuster trades for Ace starters.

The Twins have traded a Cy Young winning pitcher to the Mets in the past. In 1989 they traded Frank Viola to the Mets in a 5 for 1 trade. Of the 5 the Twins got back in exchange only Rick Aguilera and Kevin Tapani were worth it. David West, Tim Drummond and Jack Savage - not so much. Aguilera made 3 All-Star teams for the Twins while Frankie V won 20 games in his first season in Flushing, was below average in his second season and was in Boston by year 3.

In 1997 the Expos traded Cy Young winner Pedro Martinez to Boston for Carl Pavano and Tony Armas. This was a huge one sided win for the Red Sox. This is the cautionary tale the Twins are afraid of duplicating with the Santana deal.

It is tough to compare the Santana deal to the deal that brought Cy Young winner Randy Johnson to the Yankees because the deal for the Big Unit ended up being so convoluted. In 2005 the Diamondbacks sent Johnson to the Yankees for 3 players and cash. Two years later - they sent 4 players to the Yankees for the Big Unit and more cash. The net for the Diamondbacks was pretty much getting Randy Johnson back plus top prospect Chris Young along with a bunch of George Steinbrenner's cash.

Finally and maybe most significantly - Dan Haren was traded just over a month ago to the Diamondbacks from the A's. Haren and Connor Robertson went from Oakland Athletics in return for Carlos Gonzalez, pitchers Brett Anderson, Greg Smith and Dana Eveland, outfielder Aaron Cunningham and first baseman Chris Carter - a 2 for 6 deal. It can be argued that the A's got a better group of prospects for Haren than the Twins got for Santana. It will be interesting to compare how Carlos Gonzalez does in comparison to Carlos Gomez.

Bob Ryan's Loss

Bob Ryan's son has died.

Our heartfelt condolences go out to Bob Ryan and his family.

Bless those who mourn, eternal God,
with the comfort of your love
that they may face each new day with hope
and the certainty that nothing can destroy
the good that has been given. May their memories become joyful,
their days enriched with friendship,
and their lives encircled by your love.
Amen.

May those who knew Keith remember only the good things.
May those who know Bob and his wife surround them with love and prayers.
May those who know Keith's wife insure she never has to shoulder a burden alone.

Red Sox ZiPS Projections

Nice summary - with emphasis on JD Drew - on how the Red Sox project using ZiPS Projections. I too am on record for thinking that JD Drew will rebound this year and I used almost the same reasoning as Evan Brunell:

I’m here to tell you that J.D. Drew will be better than ever in 2008.

How could he not be? Free of the pressures of adapting to a new home, the medical woes of his son and trying to win a World Series for a historically-challenged team? He’s done it all, and he did it all in the same year.

Not sure I agree with the "historically-challenged" part but everything else - 100% agreement.

Some other thoughts regarding the ZiPS Projections:

- I think the projections for Manny Ramirez will be way off. They say 23 HR but I'm saying 30+ HR based upon my "gut" projections.

- The projections have a total of 63 wins for Red Sox starters. Last year the top 5 starters for the Red Sox had 69 wins. I don't see that number decreasing to 63. I see it in the 70's.

- I think the projections for Curt Schilling are way off. The ZiPS Projections have him at 11-10 with a 4.25 ERA. I'm not getting where that ERA is coming from. Last year Schilling had a bad June (5.79 ERA) but then he shut it down for the whole month of July and when he came back as a "finesse" pitcher he was very effective (a 3.34 ERA in 9 post All-Star starts). Even with the awful June numbers - Schilling still had a 3.87 ERA for the year. I'm not saying Schilling will challenge for the ERA title next year but I do think his ERA will be better than the 4.25 being projected.

State of the Union Address

You don't have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. President Bush's speech tonight started off with economic matters and it wasn't until 9:39 PM EST that Iraq was raised as an individual issue. The way I see it - this bodes well for Mitt Romney and poorly for John McCain.

The economy is Romney's strong suit whereas McCain - not so much.

On the Democrats side - I think Ted Kennedy supporting Barack Obama will be viewed as a tipping point and just watching Hillary Clinton's body language makes me think its over for her. Sure the race will be close but I think Obama will generate the enthusiasm needed to carry the day on Super Tuesday.

As of the time of this writing (9:51 PM EST) - Bodog has Hillary Clinton as a 1 to 6 favorite to win the Democratic nomination (meaning you would have to risk $6 to win just $1). Barack Obama is listed as a 3 to 2 underdog (meaning you would risk $2 to win $3). I wouldn't be surprised to see the race listed as even money within the week.

Right now John McCain is a slight favorite to win the Republican nomination (20 to 21 - just about even money) while Mitt Romney is a slight underdog (5 to 4 meaning risk $4 to win $5). I would be surprised if Romney isn't a big favorite this time next week.

Chuck Klosterman

Another solid interview by The Big Lead. This time Chuck Klosterman (the man Bill Simmons yearns to be) answers some questions.

Roger Clemens - Leper

I find a certain symmetry that Roger Clemens' agents would issue a report on World Leprosy Day.

Here is the report done by the Hendricks Brothers (PDF Document). I went over it briefly and it seems to purport that Roger Clemens performance was pretty much consistent throughout his career - which I guess is evidence in the mind of the Hendricks Brothers that Roger couldn't have used steroids. I did not see anything which would address the idea that steroids could have been used to allow quicker recovery time and allow an older player like Clemens to work out like a 20-something year old. A fried of mine also has the theory that Clemens held out the first few months of the season these past few years to allow the steroids to get out of his system or to avoid the spring training drug testing. I don't see anything in the report that would disprove that idea.

I like the Leprosy symmetry because Roger Clemens has become untouchable. Nobody wants anything to do with him. He might as well go around shouting, "Unclean, Unclean!" everywhere he goes. It's going to take a miracle to cure him. And this report from his agents is no miracle.

Ted Kennedy to Endorse Obama

Ted Kennedy is set to endorse Barack Obama who is probably hoping Ted makes his endorsement via press release so that this doesn't happen again.

Frank Rich Doesn't Get It

Frank Rich can't see the forest through the trees in his analysis of the 2008 Presidential race. I credit him with seeing that Bill and Hillary Clinton are more exposed and ultimately less electable than Obama would be. However - he completely misses the mark when it comes to understanding the Republicans.

Rich seems to think that John McCain would be the Republican who would give Hillary the most trouble in a general election. He's completely off the mark there.

No matter who is nominated for the Republicans - they will hold the upper hand when it comes to National Security. The Clintons will be peppered with questions about old quotes condemning Saddam Hussein and his WMD, questions about Sandy "the document buglar" Berger and why they did not go after Osama bin Laden. Not to mention her cut and run strategy of pulling out of Iraq ASAP which plays nice to the far left but not so well with the general centrist population who will chose the President.

If Mitt Romney is nominated - he can point directly to his accomplishments as Governor and in the private sector as his economic bona fides. Hillary is no match on the subject of the economy. Sure her husband was a good steward of the economy but how does that qualify her? My wife does a great job with our checking - that doesn't make me a banking expert. Romney also has a huge trump card when it comes to health care. Massachusetts actually has a workable plan in place whereas Hillary's healthcare plan was a complete disaster. So much a disaster - as Frank Rich points out - she hasn't released the documents about what was going on behind the scenes and how much a a clusterf*ck her managerial style actually was.

Rudy Guiliani would hold the edge in National Security and also appeal to the people who want fiscal responsibility but with a certain liberality on social issues. McCain would be the least effective of the three.

Rich doesn't even mention what will perhaps be the deciding factor in the 2008 election - the choice of running mate. For the Democrats it's a non-factor because if Hillary is nominated then Bill will be the defacto running mate. The person named as VP wouldn't be worth a warm bucket of spit when it comes to actually doing anything.

If Mitt Romney heads the ticket - he could add John McCain, Rudy or a General Petraeus as VP with the selling point that the VP would focus on military matters and on winning the war on terror. That would be tough to beat.

Frank Rich writes well and is liberal in his views - which is why he flourishes at the New York Times. However, he is hardly ever correct in his analysis. This is another example. I have to think that in reality he's just toeing the company line. The New York Times endorsed McCain and now Rich is trying to make it out that McCain is the most viable Republican. That just isn't the case.

Celtics Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous Boston Celtics thoughts and observations.

Did you realize that the Boston Celtics are 12-0 against teams from the Western Conference? Playing the tough Western Conference teams was supposed to be their Achilles heel... Lies, damn lies and statistics. Al Jefferson of the Timberwolves is actually posting better numbers than the man for whom he was traded - Kevin Garnett. Jefferson is averaging 20.8 points and 12.1 rebounds per game while Garnett is putting up 19.5 and 9.8 numbers. I doubt you would find a single basketball writer willing to say for the record that Jefferson is better than Garnett. It should be obvious to anyone that Garnett is better than Jefferson (not to say that Jefferson won't mature into a great player like Garnett)... The Patriots would go 19-0 if they won the Super Bowl. If I ran a casino I would have a prop bet that would couple the Pats perfect record with the Celtics perfect record again Western Conference foes. The Pats would be the first half of the parlay and the Celtics going 13-0, 14-0 and so on all the way up to 19-0 against the West would be the second half of the parlay. The first games would be even money but if you bet both the Celtics and Patriots going 19-0 then the odds would be 1,000 to 1... I bring up the Al Jefferson and Kevin Garnett comparison because some people seem to think that Dirk Nowitzki is the equal of Larry Bird just because the numbers are similar. It really bugs me when I hear that comparison because not only does Bird have better numbers in points, rebounds and assists - Larry Bird won things - like NBA Championships.

Boston Globe Sports New Low

Will McDonough must be spinning in his grave. Here's what passes as "news" at the Boston Globe these days. They decided to dress someone up in a New York Giants jersey and other Giants stuff to see what reaction he'd get. It's only technically that the Globe isn't a tabloid I guess.

Immediately after the reporter exited the store, expressions from passersby changed. Some people whispered from behind. Others broke out in condescending, knowing smiles.

Hard news indeed. I'm surprised that the word reporter isn't in scare quotes.

This is an embarrassment for the once respected Globe sports section. Not only that but some of the quotes don't really pass the smell test. Is it any wonder that people now get their news - sports and otherwise - from the Internet instead of places like the Boston Globe.

Chuck Knoblauch and the Monte Carlo Hotel Fire

A rumor is making its way through the Internet that Chuck Knoblauch was involved in the fire that was started at the Monte Carlo Hotel in Las Vegas today.

The story goes that Chuck Knoblauch, who is on the run trying to avoid being served with a federal subpoena to discuss steroids in baseball, thought that the best place to hide under an assumed name was in Las Vegas. Knoblauch remembered the story of how Howard Hughes had avoided subpoenas for years hiding out in Las Vegas and was trying to do the same.

Some private detectives were trying to serve Knoblauch with the subpoena but were getting tired of waiting for him to come out of hiding in his room. Supposedly the detectives thought some other people would get to serve Knoblauch first and they would thus be out of the processing fees - so they tried to "smoke him out." It was only supposed to be smoke but it quickly got out of hand.

Knoblauch was first spotted playing craps in the casino of the Monte Carlo. Some Yankee fans thought it was him but when he acted afraid to throw the dice - they were sure.

At least that's the rumor that's on the Internet now.

Red Sox Milestones

Miscellaneous Red Sox milestone thoughts and observations.

Manny Ramirez is in the last year of his contract but the Red Sox also hold the rights to two option years. It is amazing that as good as Manny has been for the Red Sox that even if he played 3 more years with the Red Sox averaging 35 HR and 125 RBI per year - Manny still would not be able to crack either the top 4 in HR or the top 5 in RBI in Red Sox history. Manny currently has 254 HR and an even 800 RBI in a Red Sox uniform. The top spots go to Ted Williams (521 HR and 1839 RBI), Carl Yastrzemski (452 and 1844), Jim Rice (382 and 1451), Dwight Evans (379 and 1346) and Bobby Doerr also has Manny beat in RBI with 1247... Jason Varitek has already passed Carlton Fisk for most RBI by a Red Sox catcher (611 to 568) but with 148 HR - Varitek still needs 14 more HR to catch Pudge on the Red Sox all-time list... If David Ortiz has just 100 RBI this season - that will put him in the top 10 all-time. Currently Ortiz has 642 RBI in Boston and Joe Cronin is in 10th on the list with 737. I can easily see Ortiz also passing Mo Vaughn who is in 9th place with just 10 more RBI than Cronin... Of course overall - Manny Ramirez has 490 HR which means he needs just 31 this season to tie Ted Williams (and Willie McCovey) career mark of 521 HR. In overall RBI - Manny currently has 1604 which means another 100 will move him into the top 20 all-time passing Reggie Jackson's 1702... Currently Jonathan Papelbon is in 6th place on the Red Sox all-time saves list but he needs just 32 to tie Dick "the Monster" Radatz in second place with 104 saves. Bob "Steamer" Stanley is the all-time leader with 132. I'm thinking that Papelbon needs a nickname... Tim Wakefield is 38 wins away from tying Cy Young and Roger Clemens for most wins in Red Sox history at 192. However, Wakefield is only 3 strikeouts away from tying Pedro Martinez's 1683 for second place on the all-time list.

Wow - Just Wow

I'm not usually a fan of Mike Lupica's writing and I can't root for the Giants in the Super Bowl - but this article is something special.

"I told them that of course after all the exteriors had been stripped away, they played the game for themselves. But that they had to play the game for each other. Then I talked about myself, how my old teammates came to my need, and how I was reminded again the power of a team, the emotional commitment teammates have for each other, that when a team finds a way to do things greater than they thought they could do, that they couldn't have done individually, that a bond is formed that can live forever.

"I told them that truly great teams usually form that bond by going through something together, and how whatever they were going through at that point in the season that no success ever came easy. And finally I reminded them that nothing is promised to anybody in this life, starting with tomorrow."

It got a little dusty for me when I read that article.

Heath Ledger

Like most people I was shocked by the news of Heath Ledger's death. It is obviously unwise to speculate as to whether the death was accidental, suicide or maybe natural causes. I will confess that once the immediate shock of the news wore off - my first thoughts were about the upcoming movie The Dark Knight. I wondered if the movie is complete and then I wondered if there may evolve some sort of curse on this film similar to the one supposedly connected to the movie Poltergeist. Ledger is the second person connected to the movie to have died.

No matter what the coroner reports - I think I will find it very had to relate to. Like all those reports of people being more unhappy once the win the lottery - I don't think I can fathom the problems of being young, rich, handsome and famous.

The Greenbrier Ghost

An interesting piece of US history. The only instance of the testimony of a ghost making its way into a murder trial in US history.