Sunday, August 14, 2011

Four Reasons Jorge Posada Won't Be Elected to HOF

I keep hearing people refer to Jorge Posada as a future member of the Baseball Hall of Fame. I disagree. I just don't see it. Here's four reasons that help explain why I don't think Jorge Posada will be elected to the Hall of Fame.

1. The Start of His Career - Posada wasn't the starter at catcher in his own right until the 2000 season when he was 28-years old. Prior to that he platooned with Joe Girardi. Can you name me another Hall of Fame catcher who started off as a platoon player? First impressions mean a lot and when Posada came up the impression wasn't "hey this guy is a future Hall of Famer" it was "hey this guy would make a good platoon partner."

2. The End of His Career - because of his big contract ($13 million) and his Yankee legacy Posada is basically still playing because the Yankees have to play him. He is standing in the way of the Yankees improving the team by using his roster spot for a more deserving player. This small difference may end up being the difference between New York winning the Division versus getting the Wild Card and having to start the playoffs on the road. If the Yankees lose in the first round of the playoffs then Posada will become a scapegoat of sorts. All in all - Posada is not exactly writing a storybook ending to his career. Voters will remember that and their votes will be biased against him because of it.

3. The Pudge Rodriguez Factor - Pudge Rodriguez is a contemporary to Jorge Posada and I think you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who thought that Posada was the better catcher. Ivan owns 13 Gold Gloves and an MVP Award but Pudge has also been suspected of using PED's. This suspicion may cost Rodriguez election to the Hall of Fame and you can be sure that some supporters of Pudge will withhold support for Posada until their guy gets elected first.

4. The DH Factor - The basis for most cases FOR Posada and the HOF hinge on Posada's offensive output and rely largely on advanced statistical metrics. Let's make a player comparison:

Player A - .312 BA/ 309 HR/ 1261 RBI/ .933 OPS/ 147 OPS+/ 67.2 WAR
Player B - .274 BA/ 271 HR/ 1058 RBI/ .849 OPS/ 121 OPS+/ 44.9 WAR
Player C - .282 BA/ 373 HR/ 1249 RBI/ .921 OPS/ 136 OPS+/ 33.1 WAR

Many people have suggested that Jorge Posada is basically a DH playing catcher. Well then lets compare him to a couple of DH's. Player A is Edgar Martinez, Player B is Jorge Posada and Player C is David Ortiz. I don't think you'd get anyone to argue that defensively Posada wasn't a liability. And compared to guys like Edgar Martinez and David Ortiz his offensive output looks - well - puny. Edgar Martinez will probably come up short in his bid for the HOF and that will leave many of his supporters saying that Edgar deserves enshrinement before Posada and this will probably cost Jorge even more support.

Tell me again why Jorge Posada will be a Hall of Fame player?

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