Red Sox vs. Yankees - The Pitching Staffs

Yesterday we spoke about the Red Sox vs. Yankees in terms of starting line-ups. Today lets take a look at the starting pitching.

Lyford has already posted on the pitching staffs - so lets use his post as a jumping off point.

The Red Sox have not been able to replace Pedro Martinez but Lyford points out that the Sox have successfully replaced the Pedro / Derek Lowe combination. As much Derek Lowe benefited from high run support with the Sox, Matt Clement was punished by poor run support with the Cubs. If Clement gets the run support Lowe got last year - look for him to win 17-20 games.

The addition of Wade Miller also makes the Red Sox starting pitching much deeper than last year.

With the addition of Randy Johnson - the Yankees have greatly improved their starting pitching. However, while Red Sox fans have been cautiously optimistic - the Yankee fans and even most sportswriters seem to be wildly optimistic about Randy Johnson and the Yankee's pitching. I heard one Boston writer say that with the run support that the Big Unit can expect in the Bronx that Johnson could easily win 25 games. Talk about rosy outlooks (and yes I realize that I just got done suggesting 17-20 wins for Clement).

I for one think that Johnson won't have the huge year everyone seems to be predicting for him and I am also pessimistic on the Yankee pitching starters in general. Why? Well since Lyford used ERA+ as his measuring stick - let me also use ERA+ to illustrate my thinking.

Randy Johnson is the biggest name pitcher to come to pitch for the Yankees since Roger Clemens. In 1999 Roger Clemens came to New York after a Cy Young Award winning 20-3 season with a ERA+ of 128. Clemens ended up going 14-10 with an ERA+ of 97 in his first year in New York (which means he was below league average - the only time in his Hall of Fame career that his ERA was below league average). Johnson is coming off a season where he went 16-14 with an ERA+ of 171.

I happen to believe that Johnson is actually a better pitcher than Clemens but I don't think he will be immune to the unique pressures of pitching in New York. Clemens did not have to switch leagues and he was a veteran of the Yankee / Red Sox pressure cooker. Johnson by most accounts is rather thin skinned and has never played under the kind of scrutiny and pressure that he'll experience in New York.

Isn't it naive to believe that this won't have a negative effect on him?

Same is true of the other new pitchers. Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano have never faced this kind of scrutiny or pressure either. Consider that last year it was Javy Vazquez and Kevin Brown who were the big name imports. Vazquez was being compared to a young Pedro Martinez and Brown was the big fireballing veteran. Take a look at what the pressure of New York did to them.

Kevin Brown (who may have a similar temperament to Johnson) had an ERA+ of 169 for the Dodgers in 2003. In 2004, in his first year in New York, his ERA+ dropped down to 110. Vazquez went from an ERA+ of 154 in Montreal to a below league average ERA+ of 94 in his first year in New York.

Last year Wright had an ERA+ of 131 and Pavano had an ERA+ of 137. If history holds true - one of these guys (and maybe both) will finish the year below the league average.

I should note that it is not just the pressure of the fans and the press in New York that wears on the Yankees. It is also the history and the and the aura. Every team gets up for the Yankees when they come to town and the home fans expect best efforts against the Yankees from their home town nine. It must be tough to go through that for a pitcher for the first time.

I think that on paper the Yankees' starters look better but I think reality will be something different altogether.

Later I'll do a run down on the bullpens.