Indiana Jones and the Stone Cold Fail

Some people are expecting the new Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull to break all sorts of records. Some even suggest it may become the highest grossing movie of all time. I completely disagree. I see the new Indiana Jones movie being possibly only the 5th highest grossing movie - this year!

Consider the history of the franchise. The first movie Raiders of the Lost Ark came out in 1981 and was a huge success (by far the highest grossing movie that year). The second installment - Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom was a box office success but the critics were no fans of the movie. This movie made much less than the original ($230 million vs $175 million) and was only the 3rd highest grossing movie for 1984. The third installment introduced Sean Connery as Indy's dad in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade. This movie was better received than Temple of Doom - both critically and at the box office (it was the second highest grossing movie of 1989 behind Batman). Of the three movies only the original was able to claim the top spot for the year.

The "hooks" for this new movie are; A - it's been 19-years since the last installment and the studio is counting on pent up demand to see an Indiana Jones movie and B - Shia LaBeouf as his sidekick. The problem is A- that the folks who grew up on Raiders of the Lost Ark are old now and they don't go to movies anymore. They wait for things to come out on DVD or on-demand. And B - Shia LeBeouf is no Sean Connery - people aren't going to buy a ticket to the movie just because he's in it. Of all the teenagers I've spoken to - none are excited to see this movie. They are excited about Prince Caspian and The Dark Knight.

I can easily see the top 5 grossing movies for 2008 being the following:

1. The Dark Knight
2. Prince Caspian
3. Iron Man
4. TBD
5. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

In 4th place I can easily see a sleeper movie like You Don't Mess with the Zohan or something else capturing this spot. I really do see Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull falling way below both the commercial and critical expectations that have been set for it.