The NBA - Is the Fix In?

At the beginning of the season the NBA was under a cloud of suspicion of "fixed" games and it looks like the NBA is determined to end the season the same way.

At the beginning of the season NBA referee Tim Donaghy was found to have been in league with gamblers. In 100 NBA games Donaghy told the bookies who he thought was going to win or games he thought he could influence the outcome. He was given $5,000 for each correct pick. He was also investigated and arrested by the FBI for breaking various laws.

In 23 second round NBA playoff games - the home teams are 21-2. Think of that for a moment. That's better than a 91% winning percentage. That's a statistical anomaly. If something akin to this happened inside a casino - the management would be reviewing the tapes looking for signs of cheating.

If this was a crime then the police would fist ask "quo bono" - who benefits? In this case the answer is clear - David Stern and the NBA along with the broadcasters carrying the playoff games. The broadcasters, however, are not in a position to influence the outcome of games. David Stern is.

David Stern was so concerned with appearances early in the year when the Donaghy story broke. Now though - when a statistical anomaly like a 91% winning percentage for home teams in the rounds of the playoffs when viewership really starts to jump and ad revenues can be huge for series extended to the limit - Stern seems rather silent.

Of course this all could be a statistical anomaly and no wrongdoing or influencing of outcomes could be present. I'm a cynic however and if this was a blackjack dealer winning 91% of hands-played when his real house advantage should be in the single digits - then I think I would be justifiably worried about a fixed game.

Tim Donaghy is accused of many crimes but the one most fitting is one he hasn't been charged with - insider trading. David Stern and the NBA profits by referees giving the home team "breaks" in the playoffs whereas Tim Donaghy is going to jail because he was trying to influence the outcomes of games on his own. Donaghy would have been better off just telling his bookie friends to wait for the playoffs to bet the home team money line.

Maybe the new catchphrase for David Stern should be "The NBA - its Fixed-tastic!" That's the way it seems.