Sports Betting Prediction

As sports betting in States becomes the rule and not the exception - I can foresee something happening probably in the not-too-distant future. That thing is an overzealous State Attorney General bringing a suit because the popular home team lost a controversial elimination game. And his evidence that a crime was committed? The game tape! I wish I could bet on this happening (because it will).

Picture this: NBA referee takes the stand, the State AG hands him the rule book and has the ref read the rule on "travelling". The State AG then shows example after example of a player taking several steps without a dribble and asks the ref why there was no call. The State AG then does the same thing for "three-seconds."

The NBA is already notorious for having certain ref crews getting certain outcomes. If a LeBron James team is 17-2 "straight-up" when a certain ref is the lead official (actual example) - how hard would it be to have a statistics and probability expert testify on the unlikelihood of this not being a case where the ref is purposely influencing the outcome? And why was this official assigned this game by the league office if that wasn't the outcome the NBA was looking for? Fun times subpoenaing all the calls, texts and emails from the NBA offices.

Here's an excellent example - the 2007 Phoenix Suns lose controversial NBA playoff series to the San Antonio Spurs.

The series would later be mired in controversy due to one of the referees involved with that series, Tim Donaghy, being involved with a betting scandal that was announced after the playoffs. He would admit that the series had very poor officiating involved from the beginning of the series to the end of it. He would also state in a book that Donaghy would release in 2009 that his group supervisor during the series, Tommy Nuñez, had a huge dislike over Suns owner Robert Sarver and a growing love for the culture San Antonio had, to the point where he wanted to make sure the Spurs continued their playoff run that year.

You didn't think I wasn't going to bring up Tim Donaghy did you? Now picture the situation if Arizona had a sports betting law and the State AG was up for election that fall. Why not charge Supervisor Tommy Nunez with a crime (like fraud maybe?). [Insert your name here Mr State AG guy running for re-election] vs the NBA on behalf of the People of Arizona who lost money on the Suns (and who are registered voters). Bound to happen.

I wish I could bet on it!

The NBA - Is the Fix In?

At the beginning of the season the NBA was under a cloud of suspicion of "fixed" games and it looks like the NBA is determined to end the season the same way.

At the beginning of the season NBA referee Tim Donaghy was found to have been in league with gamblers. In 100 NBA games Donaghy told the bookies who he thought was going to win or games he thought he could influence the outcome. He was given $5,000 for each correct pick. He was also investigated and arrested by the FBI for breaking various laws.

In 23 second round NBA playoff games - the home teams are 21-2. Think of that for a moment. That's better than a 91% winning percentage. That's a statistical anomaly. If something akin to this happened inside a casino - the management would be reviewing the tapes looking for signs of cheating.

If this was a crime then the police would fist ask "quo bono" - who benefits? In this case the answer is clear - David Stern and the NBA along with the broadcasters carrying the playoff games. The broadcasters, however, are not in a position to influence the outcome of games. David Stern is.

David Stern was so concerned with appearances early in the year when the Donaghy story broke. Now though - when a statistical anomaly like a 91% winning percentage for home teams in the rounds of the playoffs when viewership really starts to jump and ad revenues can be huge for series extended to the limit - Stern seems rather silent.

Of course this all could be a statistical anomaly and no wrongdoing or influencing of outcomes could be present. I'm a cynic however and if this was a blackjack dealer winning 91% of hands-played when his real house advantage should be in the single digits - then I think I would be justifiably worried about a fixed game.

Tim Donaghy is accused of many crimes but the one most fitting is one he hasn't been charged with - insider trading. David Stern and the NBA profits by referees giving the home team "breaks" in the playoffs whereas Tim Donaghy is going to jail because he was trying to influence the outcomes of games on his own. Donaghy would have been better off just telling his bookie friends to wait for the playoffs to bet the home team money line.

Maybe the new catchphrase for David Stern should be "The NBA - its Fixed-tastic!" That's the way it seems.

Solving the NBA Ref Problem

The Tim Donaghy scandal has rocked the NBA and rightly so. Bill Simmons has a very good column on the situation. What Simmons does not discuss, however, is a way to prevent this from happening again. I have a simple solution.

The NBA should have a pool of former coaches, players and referees whose integrity is beyond question (say like a Bob Cousy or Dave Bing). The NBA would have each NBA game reviewed by three people (a former coach, former player and former referee of college or pro experience). Only the NBA front office would know who was assigned to each game. The former players, coaches and referees could view the game from the comfort of their own homes and via a Tivo like set up be able to have VCR type controls so that they could rewind, replay, etc. The trio of reviewers would independently make notes of any calls they thought were in error or excessive. If two of the three reviewers flagged the same play - it would be reviewed back at NBA HQ. If a ref was constantly being flagged - then he would be hitting the bricks.

This would be a simple sort of quality assurance for the NBA. This would not only help catch crooked refs like Tim Donaghy (allegedly) but also weed out the refs who just aren't good at doing their jobs. Say if the pay for the reviewers was $2,000 per game - the home team, the visiting team and the NBA HQ could each pony up $2,000 to cover the expense. It would be a small price to pay for keeping the integrity of the NBA intact.

Things Always Happen in Threes

You must be aware of the old saying that "things always happen in three." Right now we seem to have a potential pro sports / FBI trifecta in play.

First Michael Vick was indicted by the FBI for running a dog fighting ring on his Virginia property.

Now we have the news that NBA referee Tim Donaghy may have bet on NBA games and is involved with some pretty shady characters. It came out today that Donaghy is the subject of an ongoing FBI investigation.

So what will be the third thing? Should I remind folks that Barry Bonds still has a grand jury out on him and it has been said that it may hand down indictments on Bonds for perjury by July 26th? One can only hope that the trifecta comes into play.