Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

This may sound morbid but I was wondering if former NBA Commissioner David Stern would be included in the Oscars In Memoriam tribute. But I was surprised to find that although Stern has a lengthy IMDB page it was all for documentaries. I was sure Stern would have appeared in a few movies as himself... Speaking of morbid - convinced that if Donald Trump was able to go back in time to kill baby Hitler that Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi would end up charging him with infanticide... Sportswriters please take note - I will NOT be participating in this year's NBA Dunk Contest. I repeat - I will NOT be participating... I would like to put together a Taylor Swift cover band fronted by an Elvis impersonator. I would call the band Generic Ebola... So this week President Trump kills Soleimani and Joe Biden proposed banning all plastic bags. That seems to sum up the political situation in this country pretty well... And speaking of the death of Soleimani - here's a good review of the past 40-years of America dealing with Iran.

Linky Links

Stuff I found interesting or amusing and thought I'd share.

- The Ones Who Walk Away from Omelas a short story by Ursula Le Guin. Russ Roberts highly recommended the story which was enough for me.

- David Stern, one of the greatest sports commissioners in history, passed away Wednesday at age 77. This was a good recap of some of the issues Stern had to deal with during his 30-years of running the NBA.

- A perfect example of how government could screw up a wet dream

- Life's Work: An Interview with Sugar Ray Leonard

- Truth vs Lies

- The Top 5 Episodes of The Knowledge Project podcast 2019

The NBA - Is the Fix In?

At the beginning of the season the NBA was under a cloud of suspicion of "fixed" games and it looks like the NBA is determined to end the season the same way.

At the beginning of the season NBA referee Tim Donaghy was found to have been in league with gamblers. In 100 NBA games Donaghy told the bookies who he thought was going to win or games he thought he could influence the outcome. He was given $5,000 for each correct pick. He was also investigated and arrested by the FBI for breaking various laws.

In 23 second round NBA playoff games - the home teams are 21-2. Think of that for a moment. That's better than a 91% winning percentage. That's a statistical anomaly. If something akin to this happened inside a casino - the management would be reviewing the tapes looking for signs of cheating.

If this was a crime then the police would fist ask "quo bono" - who benefits? In this case the answer is clear - David Stern and the NBA along with the broadcasters carrying the playoff games. The broadcasters, however, are not in a position to influence the outcome of games. David Stern is.

David Stern was so concerned with appearances early in the year when the Donaghy story broke. Now though - when a statistical anomaly like a 91% winning percentage for home teams in the rounds of the playoffs when viewership really starts to jump and ad revenues can be huge for series extended to the limit - Stern seems rather silent.

Of course this all could be a statistical anomaly and no wrongdoing or influencing of outcomes could be present. I'm a cynic however and if this was a blackjack dealer winning 91% of hands-played when his real house advantage should be in the single digits - then I think I would be justifiably worried about a fixed game.

Tim Donaghy is accused of many crimes but the one most fitting is one he hasn't been charged with - insider trading. David Stern and the NBA profits by referees giving the home team "breaks" in the playoffs whereas Tim Donaghy is going to jail because he was trying to influence the outcomes of games on his own. Donaghy would have been better off just telling his bookie friends to wait for the playoffs to bet the home team money line.

Maybe the new catchphrase for David Stern should be "The NBA - its Fixed-tastic!" That's the way it seems.