Barry Bonds

Barry Bonds is a [fill in the blank].

I wonder how many people finished that sentence with "Barry Bonds is a prick, a cheater, an asshole, or the poster child for steroids use."

How many people do you think finished the sentence with "Barry Bonds is a great hitter."

That's Barry Bonds legacy in a nutshell.

PED's and the HOF

"Anyone found or admitted, I think you traded your money and numbers... for your [Hall of Fame] vote." Mike Lowell

I agree 100% with Mike Lowell. Barry Bonds made over $188 million, Roger Clemens made over $150 million and Mark McGwire made over $74 million in MLB contracts. These players were able to get these mega-buck contracts because PED's allowed them to put up bigger numbers and play more years than if they tried to do things the right way - the legal way. They traded their Hall of Fame vote for the money and the numbers - it's that simple. Will I feel bad when these players come up short in getting elected to the HoF? Not in the least.

The players I feel sympathy for are the guys like Fred McGriff who everyone thinks played the game the right way. McGriff finished his career with 493 HR which will be just under what is needed for election to the Hall. McGriff suffers because his power numbers pale in comparison to a guy like McGwire and his 583 HR.

Baseball Hall of Fame - Thought One

Here's a thought I had immediately after seeing that Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz and Craig Biggio had been elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame - combined the four players made a little over $539 million during their careers.

The most controversial quartet of players on the Hall of Fame ballot associated with PED's - Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa combined salaries came close to almost the exact same amount ($537.5 million). The question that keeps popping up is if this group didn't do PED's would they be in the Hall of Fame today? I think the more accurate question is - if this group didn't do PED's would they have been paid like Hall of Famers? More than two-thirds of Roger Clemens money came after he left Boston in the "twilight of his career". The majority of Barry Bonds money was made after he left Pittsburgh. In Bonds last six years he made more in a single season than he made his whole time with the Pirates.

These guys cheated (allegedly) to get paid. Good.

They don't get Hall of Fame induction too. They made their choice and got their big money. They don't also get to enjoy something that Dale Murphy or Don Mattingly will never get close to. That's not right and that's something many sportswriters don't seem to understand.

Barry Bonds

Ken Rosenthal asks if in the end whether it was worth it to Barry Bonds.

I agree that if you asked pretty much anyone who ever got their hand caught in the cookie jar - they most likely would say it wasn't worth it. However, I can't help but remember that Barry Bonds made $135 million AFTER he started juicing. Was that $135 million worth it?

Consider that Barry Bonds was picked with the 6th pick of the first round of the 1985 MLB Draft. The following players went before him BJ Surhoff ($20 million in earnings after 1998), Will Clark ($10.9 million but out of baseball after 2000), Canton Mass's Bobby Witt ($2.1 million and out of baseball after 2001), Barry Larkin ($38.5 million) and Kurt Brown a catcher drafted by the White Sox who never played a game in the big leagues. That means that if you accept that Barry Bonds started juicing after 1998 then he made almost double the money of all the guys drafted ahead of him combined from that point forward. Combined.

Was that worth it becomes a different question altogether. The question then becomes more akin to "Would you spend a year in jail for millions of dollars?" How would you answer that question?

The Barry Bonds Trial

Joe Posnanski has a good piece on his feelings regarding the Barry Bonds trial.

Like Joe, I am also numb to it by now but unlike Joe I want this to be a circus and while Joe doesn't want either side to win - I want both sides to lose. I also disagree with Joe about this:

I often compared him [Barry Bonds] in his younger days to Ted Williams, who was also a genius of a hitter and also widely despised.

Ted Williams was despised by who? Not his teammates. His friendships with teammates was so strong it was immortalized by David Halberstam. The average fan? Kids with cancer who were being helped by the Jimmy Fund? Men who wore the uniform of the US Marine Corps like Williams? Or is Posnanski talking about those paragons of virtue the sportwiters?

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

You can tell the Count on Seasame Street is not a real vampire since he's out during the day all the time. So the Count is basically a poser. A Twighlight wannabe... Gesundheit... Tweet of the Day from @ShitMyDadSays "I lost 20 pounds...How? I drank bear piss and took up fencing. How the fuck you think, son? I exercised"... The other night somebody texted my wife that they just "laughed out load." That sounds dirty. Should I be jealous?... Stat of the Day: Number of humans killed by Killer Whales in the wild - 0. Number of humans killed by Killer Whales at marine parks - 24... I woke this morning to a dream of my wife bugging me to get the trash out. It was so real that I put the trash together and was about to bring it to the curb when I realized today is Sunday and trash day is on Monday... Tweet of the Day 2 from @SportsMinute "Barry Bonds and his wife are divorcing. Maybe he’s not taking as many performance enhancing drugs as we thought"...

Steroids

Here's a player comparison I find interesting:

Player A: 3584 AB / 176 HR / 3 Gold Gloves / 2 MVP's
Player B: 3180 AB / 164 HR / 2 Gold Gloves / 2 MVP's

These players played the same position and seem pretty even - don't they? Player A had more HR but Player B was hitting HR at a better rate (1 HR / 19.39 AB vs 1 HR / 20.36 AB). Player A is Barry Bonds through his age 27 season (1992) and Player B is Dale Murphy through his age 27 season (1983). The next year - each player would win his league's HR title but Murphy would accomplish it by hitting exactly the same number of HR (36) as he hit the year before. Bonds on the other hand had a huge statistical jump from a career best of 34 to a league leading 46 HR (a better than 33% increase) to win his first HR title.

Nobody but Bonds really knows when he started using steroids but with the big jump in HR from 1992 to 1993 - is it really that big a leap to think that could have been when it happened? The reason I bring this up is because I'm sick of Bonds apologists saying that Bonds was a Hall of Fame player before he started using steroids. Bullshit! Most likely Barry Bonds was no better than Dale Murphy and Dale Murphy is not in the Hall of Fame (thanks in large part to having his career skewered by comparisons to cheating players like Barry Bonds).

What if Dale Murphy took steroids after 1983 and his next season's HR total jumped to 46? Most likely he would have won his 3rd straight MVP and his Hall of Fame selection would have been ensured.

One final point of note - it was mentioned to me recently that the only two players to win back-to-back MVP's and not be in the Hall of Fame are Dale Murphy and Roger Maris. A fact I find very relevant when discussing the forgotten victims of the steroids era.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Had dinner with a New York Giants season ticket holder last night and he's convinced that free agent receiver Anquan Boldin will be a Giant next season when all is said and done. He also made an excellent point that the defense will probably be the best in the NFC next season as a number of injured players return healthy for 2009. I did not mention it to him last night but one complicating issue that may sidetrack his Boldin to the Giants scenario is the fact that Drew Rosenhaus is not just Boldin's agent but also Plaxico Burress' agent. Still - the Giants at 10-1 odds may be a good 2009 Super Bowl bet if you happen to be in Vegas anytime soon... Did you know that Tris Speaker actually had more triples in his career (222) than strikeouts (220)? That's amazing... Maurice Clarett should have just finished his third full season in the NFL if he was able to stay in school, stay in shape and only get his Goose on during off-season occasions. I'm torn between seeing his as a tragic waste of talent or seeing him as a thug who is getting just what he deserved.... I could give a rat's ass about Michael Phelps taking a bong hit. Who really cares about swimmers except for a 2-week stretch every 4-years. Even then my interest in swimming and swimmers is mild at best.... I'm looking forward to the National Geographic show Morphed on how certain dinosaurs evolved into some of today's modern creatures like turkeys and whales. It would be cool if they could do a show on Barry Bonds while they are at it...

The MVP Award and Steroids

This is an observation and not a scientific study in any way but I think one of the elephants in the room that isn't being talked about is how steroids testing has effected baseball and the MVP Award in particular. Consider that the top 5 vote getters in the American League averaged just 22.8 home runs. Only one player in the top 5 had over 30 HR. The 22.8 HR is a 41% decrease in HR from the top 5 vote getters from 5 just years ago.

That's an amazing change in numbers. Yet nobody seems to be mentioning it.

This is not a fluke - it's clearly a trend in both leagues. Here's how the top 5 vote getters have averaged in HR for the past 5 years (doubly significant in that Barry Bonds last won an MVP 5-years ago):

2008 - AL 22.8 / NL 33.6
2007 - AL 33 / NL 38.6
2006 - AL 37 / NL 43.8
2005 - AL 41 / NL 41.4
2004 - AL 38.6 / NL 43

I fully expect the AL average to go up next year but even if it goes up to an average of 30 HR from the top 5 vote getters - that will still be a decrease of 20% from the 2004 numbers.

Eventually the numbers will flatten out and you'll pretty much know what to expect from year to year. I just find it interesting that nobody seems to be commenting on this very obvious drop in the numbers and maybe what it says about the top players of the steroids era.

What are the Odds on the Mitchell Report Naming Names?

Angels owner Artie Moreno says its 100% that names will be included in the upcoming Mitchell Report dealing with steroids in baseball. What I want to know are what are the odds on different players being named. Some enterprising sports book should have prop bets on this. Jose Guillen would be off the board because he supposedly has already been identified as a player who will be named. Can I put some money on say Miguel Tejada at 2-1 odds that he'll be named? It's a safe bet that if there was a list with such a prop bet that Barry Bonds' name would be off the board as well. I'd be willing to put some money down on Roger Clemens at 2-1 too.

Barry Bonds

Barry Bonds has been indicted for perjury. I hate to say it but I told you so. This is what I wrote back in 2004:

We all know that our legal system is dodgy - especially when the defendants have the money for high powered attorneys. The BALCO stuff may get thrown out but one thing that is not dodgy is the truth. If Barry Bonds lied to the Feds under oath and they can prove it - he'll end up going to jail just like Martha Stewart.

Remember - Martha Stewart did not go to jail for insider trading (which is what the original investigation was about), she went to jail for lying to the Feds. Barry won't go to jail for taking steroids, he'll go to jail for lying about taking steroids.

Somebody has to be the fall guy here and Barry was a main target all along. Plus how sympathetic do you think a jury will be to Barry? About as sympathetic as a jury was to Martha maybe?

Barry is going to jail.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

This year will be remembered in baseball as the year Barry Bonds broke the all-time home run record. Only one thing could eclipse this and obscure it from memory and that is a Red Sox / Cubs World Series. That's why I believe it is due to happen. It seems written in the stars... The YES Network is up for sale. How funny would it be if the current Red Sox owners bought it?.... Everyone remembers that Cal Ripken holds the all-time consecutive game streak and that the record belonged to Lou Gehrig before Ripken came along. Many people also know that Miguel Tejada was the current leader in games played (and 5th all-time) until he hurt his wrist. What many people forget is th Steve Garvey holds the NL record for consecutive games played with 1,207 and especially that Everett Scott held the record before Gehrig came almong. Scott is currently third all-time with 1,307 consecutive games played but when he finished his streak in May of 1925 he was the all-time leader. Within a month of Scott finishing his streak - Lou Gehrig started his epic streak (June 1, 1925)... Kevin Cullen had an excellent article on Bobby Doerr who was honored at Fenway Park today... Of course my thoughts and prayers go out to the victims of the bridge collapse in Minnesota...

The Home Run Record

Everyone who follows baseball knows that Barry Bonds is on the cusp of passing Hank Aaron as the all-time home run king. Likewise everyone knows that Hank Aaron surpassed Babe Ruth's then record 714 home runs to grab the crown. However - you would have to be a real baseball geek to know who Babe Ruth passed to become the home run king in his own right.

The answer to that is Roger Connor who held the home run record before Babe Ruth came along. And how many home runs did Connor have? Just 136. That should give you a good idea of how much Babe Ruth changed the game of baseball.

Things Always Happen in Threes

You must be aware of the old saying that "things always happen in three." Right now we seem to have a potential pro sports / FBI trifecta in play.

First Michael Vick was indicted by the FBI for running a dog fighting ring on his Virginia property.

Now we have the news that NBA referee Tim Donaghy may have bet on NBA games and is involved with some pretty shady characters. It came out today that Donaghy is the subject of an ongoing FBI investigation.

So what will be the third thing? Should I remind folks that Barry Bonds still has a grand jury out on him and it has been said that it may hand down indictments on Bonds for perjury by July 26th? One can only hope that the trifecta comes into play.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

I stand behind this morning's observation that there is something fishy to the way Barry Bonds was voted into the starting line-up for the National League. I know that the Giants and Fox Sports wanted Bonds in the game but the league has rules about ballot stuffing. Unfortunately I think those rules say that you can vote up to 25,000 times per person. So that means just 10 people could have accounted for those 250,000 votes that was the difference. Remember that when some writes about or talks about Bonds being voted in by "the fans" or that the "people have spoken"... Scott Miller had a phrase I wish I had not read at the end of his latest offering. Speaking about the Padres' Brian Giles he writes that Giles has a "penchant for nude clubhouse hugs." Whoa - file that under way too much information... I guess Crash Davis is not managing in Tampa Bay. In Bull Durham Crash had the under-rated and under-remembered quote, "Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic." Well the Devil Ray pitchers lead the AL in strikeouts with 575 so far this season (but they also have the highest ERA with 5.57).... Just sayin' - Roger Clemens 5.32 ERA - Julian Tavarez 4.39 ERA...

Barry Bonds Voted to Start All-Star Game - Or Was He?

So we are supposed to just accept the fact that Barry Bonds went from being 119,000 votes down to winning the final outfield position in the All-Star game for the National League by a margin of 123,000 votes. I'm sorry but I'm going to have to call shenanigans on this one.

Barry Bonds is perhaps the most disliked player in baseball. No player gets booed as badly as Barry when he plays on the road. I'm thinking that there's no way Barry got voting support from around the country. I guess we are supposed to accept that those close to a quarter-million last-minute votes came in from San Francisco.

Bonds beat out Alfonso Soriano for the final spot. Soriano plays for the Chicago Cubs - a team with a pretty rabid national fan base. Soriano was red hot in June - batting .336 for the month while hitting 11 HR. With Soriano getting this hot you would think the momentum in voting for him would increase at the end and not cool off enough to let Bonds catch and pass him so easily. Yet this is precisely what we are supposed to believe - that support for Soriano cooled off just at the time that Soriano was playing his best.

The All-Star game is in San Francisco this year and the biggest story in baseball is Barry Bonds pursuit of Hank Aaron's all-time home run record while at the same time having a huge cloud of steroids suspicion hanging over him. My guess is that the powers that be did not want to "honor" Barry Bonds by adding him to the All-Star game roster. It seems just so much more convenient to have him "voted" in by the fans - that way baseball bigwigs can say it was the fans who wanted him at the game not them. Would anyone put it past Bud Selig to manipulate the voting totals? I mean used car salesmen are known for their integrity - right?

It wouldn't be the first time that a pro league played with the All-Star game vote totals (see this year's NHL All-Star game). When you add everything together - Barry Bonds being voted in just doesn't make sense to me.

The whole situation just smells fishy.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

Manny Ramirez needs just one more RBI to tie Mo Vaughn for 8th place on the all-time Red Sox RBI list with 752. By the end of the season Manny should pass Rico Petrocelli (773 RBI) and Jimmy Foxx (788 RBI) to move into 6th place on the all-time list. That's about as high as he'll get though because I think Bobby Doerr's mark of 1247 in 5th place may be too far out of reach... Win shares are normally a pretty good predictor for the MVP races but I find it interesting that despite his huge numbers - Alex Rodriguez is only tied for 4th in win shares in the AL (as of 6/15/07). Vlade Guerrero is first with 17 WS, Magglio Ordonez is tied for second with Orlando Cabrera with 16 and Ichiro, Victor Martinez and A-Rod are tied for fourth with 15 each... I have to laugh about all of the recent Barry Bonds trade talk on ESPN. Its especially funny because they normally don't even bother to mention that Barry has the right to veto any trade (because he's a 10-year veteran with the last 5 with the same team). You would think this was a salient fact to mention... The Red Sox released JC Romero. I'm surprised at this because you would think that a reliever with a 3.15 ERA would have some trade value - even if it was just for a player to be named later... For those who think that Curt Schilling has lost a step it is interesting to note that his career ERA is 3.45 while his ERA this season is 3.80 - just a shade below his career average. Schilling is again on pace to pitch over 200 innings this season. If Schilling wins in his start tonight against the Braves he will tie Rick Rueschel for 83rd place on the all-time wins list with 214...

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

Did you hear the recent rumor about a Jermaine Dye for Bobby Abreu swap? That had to be one of the most riduculous rumors I've heard in a long time (since maybe last year when someone was trying to pawn off a Mike Lowell for Jake Peavy rumor). Both Dye and Abreu are free agents at the end of the year (actually Abreu has a 2008 option for $16 million that won't be picked up). Why would the White Sox take on the extra salary (Dye only makes $6 million this year whereas Abreu's contract is for $15 million)? If the White Sox are to trade Dye - it will be for young players or prospects... If the White Sox do wave the white flag - Mark Buehrle will be their most attractive chip. Buehrle is a veteran pitcher who will be a free agent at the end of the year. He makes $9.5 million this year - so it will probably take at least a 3-year $40 million deal to re-sign him. The White Sox' biggest need isn't starting pitching - so they may opt to spend that money elsewhere (especially if they will also be losing Jermaine Dye). A playoff contender will probably pay a steep price for Buerhle near the trade deadline... The Phillies are in the unusual position of averaging the most runs scored per game in the NL at 5.05 R/G while at the same time also having the highest team ERA in the NL at 4.76. The Phillies are the perfect example of a team who could really use a Mark Buehrle as they try to make the playoffs (Phillies are just 5.5 back in the NL Wildcard right now)... If Barry Bonds played in the AL - he'd have the distinction of being the oldest player in the league by almost 4 months... Today is the anniversary of the D-Day invasion of Europe. Its worth noting that Major League Baseball cancelled all games on this day back in 1944 because they didn't think it was appropriate to be playing while men were fighting and dying on the beaches of Normandy.