Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

I'm amazed that some people still debate whether Ichiro Suzuki is a Hall of Fame Player or not. Ichiro has been in the league for 8 years and each year he's been an All-Star and won a Gold Glove. He's also had over 200 hits in each of his seasons and won 2 batting titles. This year Ichiro is batting .342 and shows no sign of slowing down. To top it off - when you see him play in person he's simply mesmerizing. I've seen him play a few times and you can't take your eyes off him... Bobby Abreu's batting average dropped 65 points in May. He hit just .221 for the month (not including today's game). I just don't seem to like Bobby Abreu... Speaking of Bobby Abreu - of the minor leaguers that Philly got back as part of the Cory Lidle/Abreu trade - only Matt Smith made an impact. Too bad for the Phillies that the impact was to have an 11.25 ERA in 9 games back in 2007. That trade between the Phillies and Yankees will go down in history as a textbook salary dump trade... I'm not a fan of collusion but I'd be willing to set aside my scruples for a minute to get the MLB owners to agree to block the Washington Nationals from drafting San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg. Scott Boras is going to have a field day with the mess that is the Nationals front office and the money Strasburg will get will unbalance the pay scale an unprecedented amount. Then again - this could be the perfect storm that leads to a rookie pay scale... In Nick Carfardo's notes column today - he asks, "How about Omar Vizquel as a fill-in shortstop for the Red Sox until Jed Lowrie comes back?" I love that idea but there are two problems - Jed Lowrie is almost back and why would the Rangers give up the versatile Vizquel?

Jon Heyman - Flipflopper

Back on November 18th Jon Heyman reported that the Yankees had decided to offer Bobby Abreu arbitration.

The Yankees have decided to offer star outfielder Bobby Abreu arbitration, people familiar with their thinking tell SI.com. However, it remains more likely that he will sign elsewhere as a free agent.

Here's what he wrote today:

The Yankees will not offer arbitration to free agents Andy Pettitte and Bobby Abreu, SI.com has learned. The Yankees did not want to chance taking either player to arbitration since both players made $16 million in 2008 and stood to make even more than that in arbitration. Both players can still re-sign with the Yankees though only Pettitte appears to have a good chance to do so.

Was Jon Heyman just throwing stuff against the wall back in mid-November? Is he doing so now? If I had a dollar for every time Heyman was wrong about something in print - then I'd be able to buy that ivory backscratcher I've been longing for.

The New York Yankees

The Yankees are poised to have a significant turnover in their roster from this year to next. They have 7 big contracts that could be coming off the books after this October. The players include:

Jason Giambi - $5 million buy-out or $22 million club option. So if they do the buy-out they still save $16 million over 2008 costs. Buh-bye.
Bobby Abreu - $16 million. I don't think he'll be back but I could be wrong.
Andy Pettitte - $16 million. Very well could be back as insurance against the youngsters continuing to stumble. If the Yankees fail to land a top free agent starter - then he'll definitely be back if he wants to pitch.
Mike Mussina - $11 million. Buh-bye.
Carl Pavano - $1.95 million buy-out or $13 million option. So if they do the buy-out they save roughly $9 million over 2008 costs. Buh-bye.
Kyle Farnsworth - $5.5 million. Baseball's answer to the hockey goon.
LaTroy Hawkins - $3.75 million. God awful. Buh-bye.

Combined those 7 players equate to $71.75 million (after buy-outs) that could be coming off the books after this season. If those players were let go then that would open holes in RF, 1st, a couple of starter positions and a couple of bullpen positions. What free agents would be available to fill those slots?

The big target would be Mark Teixeira and I'm guessing Scott Boras will squeeze Hank Steinbrenner for a Jason Giambi type deal. If they fail to land Teixeira then they may have to go with a young player or convert Matsui or Posada to a 1st baseman.

The other big target (pun intended) will be starter CC Sabathia. Look for Steinbrenner to throw Johan Santana money at CC (and if Sabathia's appetite for money is anything like his appetite for food then Cleveland can probably waive bye-bye to CC). Best case scenario for the Yankees is a rotation of Sabathia, Wang, Chamberlain, Hughes and Kennedy.

So the Yankees could possibly spend $44 million or so on Teixeira and Sabathia and still have about $27 million available to fill in the rest of the holes with marginal free agents and young players from the farm system. If the Yankees fail to land at least one of these two targets then they could be in a world of hurt next year.

Two things to note and neither item should be overlooked:

First - with that many aging veterans in their "walk" years the Yankees will probably be faced both with injuries and with an elevated level of selfishness in the clubhouse for the rest of the season. The selfishness is only natural when you think of how pampered and self-centered most millionaire athletes are in the first place. There could be lots of sniping in the clubhouse and the problem could spiral out of control with no Joe Torre father-figure around to keep it in check. Don't discount this factor in what looks to be a 3rd place finish for the Yankees in the AL East this year.

Second - the Yankees biggest rivals - the Red Sox - have no such issues. The Sox will just have to deal with a new contract for Jason Varitek and Varitek has made it clear he wants to stay in Boston.

Bobby Abreu Trade Review

The Hardball Times has a trade review article on the trade that sent Bobby Abreu to the Yankees. I have a hard time calling this a trade since it was really a salary dump.

The one bone I'd have to pick with the analysis is the fact it doesn't mention the opportunity cost to the Yankees. With Abreu on the team (along with the other high priced outfielders like Damon and Matsui) - the Yankees did not go after any big name free agents for the outfield. No Alfonso Soriano, JD Drew or Carlos Lee. Sure Abreu helped them make the playoffs in 2006 but did he cost them in the long run? Abreu's best days are behind him.

Abreu had 19 win shares last year. Lee had 23 win shares last year. Soriano had 22 win shares last year. JD Drew had 12 win shares last season. So both Lee and Soriano probably would have been worth at least one extra win to the team last season. Could it be that the difference between having a Carlos Lee or Soriano in the line-up this year could be the huge difference maker between the Yankees winning the division or possibly missing the playoffs in 2008? Keep in mind that next winter the only real impact free agent outfielder may be Carl Crawford. Too soon to consider the impact of Abreu on the Yankees if you ask me.

Baseball GM Meetings Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous hot stove baseball thoughts and observations.

The Texas Rangers need a centerfielder. The Red Sox have two. If the Rangers lose out on the top centerfield free agents then a Coco Crisp for Jarrod Saltalamacchia trade could be good for both teams (good for the Red Sox at least). The Red Sox big needs are a corner infielder (if Mike Lowell is not re-signed) and a back-up catcher. Saltalamacchia could fill both those needs. Note - I wouldn't be against keeping Coco as a 4th outfielder or as insurance that Jacoby Ellsbury doesn't have a sophomore slump but I think Salty is going to be the real deal... Greg Maddux has reportedly re-signed with the Padres for a 1-year deal worth $10 million. Maddux is a sure-fire first ballot Hall of Famer. Last season he managed 34 starts and almost 200 IP. I REALLY hope that Roger Clemens doesn't come back next season and that Maddux wins at least 8 games to pass Clemens and take over 8th place on the all-time wins list. Maddux would need 14 wins to tie Kid Nichols in 7th place. I think the low key way Maddux went about re-signing with the Padres compared to the mercenary "look at me" way Clemens operates speaks volumes about the two pitchers as people... With the Yankees picking up the option on Bobby Abreu - it seems to me they have a logjam in the outfield. Melky Cabrera should be the starting CF and now with Abreu back in RF - that leaves Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui to fight it out for LF at bats and time at DH. Do they trade Damon (as has been rumored to the White Sox) or do they try to trade Jason Giambi? It seems to me that something has to give... Keep in mind that the Blue Jays collect their revenue in Canadian dollars but pay the players in US dollars. That means that the Canadian dollar going above a 1 for 1 exchange rate creates a windfall for the Blue Jays. Will they use this extra fiscal muscle to sign a big name player this offseason? I wouldn't recommend it but it should be noted that short is their big need and they have the money to take on a Miguel Tejada contract. I know Tejada is diminishing skills incarnate but he's also a big name and the Blue Jays could actually use a gate attraction...

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

Did you hear the recent rumor about a Jermaine Dye for Bobby Abreu swap? That had to be one of the most riduculous rumors I've heard in a long time (since maybe last year when someone was trying to pawn off a Mike Lowell for Jake Peavy rumor). Both Dye and Abreu are free agents at the end of the year (actually Abreu has a 2008 option for $16 million that won't be picked up). Why would the White Sox take on the extra salary (Dye only makes $6 million this year whereas Abreu's contract is for $15 million)? If the White Sox are to trade Dye - it will be for young players or prospects... If the White Sox do wave the white flag - Mark Buehrle will be their most attractive chip. Buehrle is a veteran pitcher who will be a free agent at the end of the year. He makes $9.5 million this year - so it will probably take at least a 3-year $40 million deal to re-sign him. The White Sox' biggest need isn't starting pitching - so they may opt to spend that money elsewhere (especially if they will also be losing Jermaine Dye). A playoff contender will probably pay a steep price for Buerhle near the trade deadline... The Phillies are in the unusual position of averaging the most runs scored per game in the NL at 5.05 R/G while at the same time also having the highest team ERA in the NL at 4.76. The Phillies are the perfect example of a team who could really use a Mark Buehrle as they try to make the playoffs (Phillies are just 5.5 back in the NL Wildcard right now)... If Barry Bonds played in the AL - he'd have the distinction of being the oldest player in the league by almost 4 months... Today is the anniversary of the D-Day invasion of Europe. Its worth noting that Major League Baseball cancelled all games on this day back in 1944 because they didn't think it was appropriate to be playing while men were fighting and dying on the beaches of Normandy.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

The Dodgers brought up 3rd baseman Andy LaRoche, brother of Pirates 1st baseman Adam LaRoche, and Andy has hit in all three games since the call-up. LaRoche could be a good candidate for the NL ROY if he keeps this up (although Josh Hamilton will be a big sentimental favorite this year). Andy and Adam's father is Dave LaRoche who pitched for 14 big-league seasons and is currently the pitching coach for the New Hampshire Fishercats (the AA affiliate for the Blue Jays)... Maybe the person happiest to see Bobby Abreu struggling for the Yankees (.258 BA with just 1 HR) is Andruw Jones. If the Yankees pick up Abreu's option for 2008 - then all three outfield spots for the Yankees are tied up and the Yankees would be out of the bidding for the free agent to be Jones. However, at his current production level - why would the Yankees ever pick up the $16 million option?... Ichiro is now on pace for just 174 hits which would break his string of six straight 200-hit seasons... Only Gary Sheffield (6th pick) and Roberto Hernandez (picked 16th) remain from the class of players drafted in the first round of the 1986 MLB draft. That draft was noteable because all of the top 6 picks actually had productive MLB careers (normally the top picks in the MLB draft are crapshoots). Greg Swindell (123 wins) was picked 2nd by the Indians, Matt Williams (378 HR) was picked 3rd by the Giants, Kevin Brown (211 wins) was picked 4th by the Rangers, and Kent Merker (17-year career) was picked 5th by the Braves. Of the top 6 picks - maybe the least successful was the very first pick - Jeff King - who was picked by the Pirates. But even King had three straight seasons of 20+ HR and 90+ RBI in a career that lasted 11 seasons... Jason Varitek raised his batting average 34 points last night from .250 to .284 with his 4-4 performance against the Blue Jays...