Curt Schilling and the Hall of Fame

This past week four new members were voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame; Mariano Rivera, Edgar Martinez, Roy Halliday and Mike Mussina.

Not making the cut was Curt Schilling who garnered 60.9% of the vote (75% is needed for induction). What bothers me is I truly believe Schilling was kept out of the Hall because of his politics and his personality.

Now don't get me wrong - I think Schilling can be a real horse's ass but this isn't supposed to be a personality test. This is supposed to be an honor earned for on the field performance and I believe Schilling earned that honor for his deeds in both in the regular and in the post seasons.

Schilling is one of only 16 players in MLB history to have over 3,000 strikeouts. Of the pitchers in the 3,000 K Club - all of them are in the Hall of Fame. Except Curt Schilling and Roger Clemens who is being black balled for another reason *cough*steroids*cough*. Membership in the 3,000 K Club normally equals induction but not for Schilling. Why? Because some writers don't like his politics.

In terms of playoff performance - he was one of the best when it came to the biggest games. Schilling went 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA in 12 post season series. In winning 3 World Series titles - Schilling was named co-MVP in one and had the legendary "bloody sock" postseason heroics in another. (For comparison sake - Mike Mussina went 7-8 with a 3.42 ERA in his postseason pitching opportunities.)

Schilling had three 20-win seasons. He went 22-6 in 2001 and 23-7 in 2002 for Arizona. Both of those seasons he finished 2nd in Cy Young voting to teammate and future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson who went a combined 45-11 with 706 strikeouts in those two seasons. In 2004 Schilling went 21-6 for the Red Sox but again finished 2nd in Cy Young voting. That year Johan Santana also went 21-6 for the Twins but had a better ERA and more K's than Schilling. You have to wonder if Schilling had won just one Cy Young award if it would have been too hard for voters to justify excluding him.

I've made the argument that Schilling's three 2nd place seasons were better than the three seasons that won Jim Palmer his Cy Young awards.

People have argued that Schilling is "trending" towards induction next year. But that doesn't give the people who voted against him simply because they don't like his politics or personality a pass. Besides what if politics gets even more divisive in 2019? Seems like that's going to be the case. More reason for these self-righteous voters to double-down on not voting for Schilling.

It isn't fair. It isn't right. It it casts shame not on Schilling but on the baseball writers who vote and on the the Baseball Hall of Fame itself.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot

Picking 10 names from that list is difficult. I'd break my choices into two categories; "No Doubt" and "Had to Think About It but Yes."

Here's my picks:

No Doubts:

Mariano Rivera, Fred McGriff (long been a supporter of the Crime Dog), Curt Schilling, and Larry Walker (people forget how crazy good he was)

Had to Think About It But Yes:

Roy Halladay (sentiment will make his selection easier but is his case actually better than Curt Schilling's?), Mike Mussina (but only after Schilling gets in - Schilling was the better pitcher who is now being punished for being a crazy uncle), Omar Vizquel (guy had 11 Gold Gloves and was every bit the fielder as Ozzie Smith).

That's only 7 choices but that's all I'd feel comfortable with.

As far as steroids guys like Bonds and Clemens - my view is these guys did steroids to get paid which they did handsomely. They knowingly sacrificed their chances to make the Hall for the opportunity to make millions with big contracts. That's the choice they made and they got paid. And now that's all they should get.

Derek Lowe

Derek Lowe was designated for assignment by the Texas Rangers and his big league career may be over. And what a unique career it has been. Lowe once led the league in saves - something Jonathan Papelbon never managed to do. Lowe had as many 20-win seasons as Mike Mussina - but whereas Mussina was nicknamed Moose - it was Lowe who really shouldered the load and who led his league in games started 4 times (Mussina managed the trick just twice).

The Red Sox do not win the 2004 World Series without Lowe's pitching heroics. But it is Curt Schilling and David Ortiz who still get all the kudos. For his part in the 2004 Championship - Lowe was shown the door and allowed to sign with the Dodgers as a free agent.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying Lowe and his career 4.03 ERA is a Hall of Famer. It is also hard to feel bad for a man who spent all or part of 17 seasons in "the show" while raking in more than $110 million in salary. It's just that Lowe seems a decent guy and has been so enigmatic that the passing of his big league career seemed worthy of note.

Thanks for 2004.

Is Andy Pettitte a Hall of Fame Pitcher?

Is Andy Pettitte a Hall of Fame Pitcher? The answer to that is - no he is not.

Pettitte has 240 wins, a career ERA of 3.88 (ERA+ of 117) and just 2,251 strikeouts. Those are not Hall of Fame numbers.

His supporters will point out that he has more post season wins than any player in history. His detractors will point out that he also had the most post season starts. They will point out that Jack Morris had a better post season ERA and is better known for his post season exploits but that isn't helping Morris into the Hall.

His Yankee supporters will point out that he was great for the Yankees. His detractors will point out that Mike Mussina had a better career and if Mussina isn't in the Hall five years from now what chance does Andy have?

His supporters will say Andy was one of the nicest and most humble men in baseball. His detractors will point out that he was also a steroids cheat.

Today there is a groundswell among his supporters that Andy is a Hall of Fame player. The bottom line is five years from now the reality that he is not will have set in.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Supposedly CNN's Anderson Cooper was punched 10 times in head by a mob in Egypt. This could have nothing to do with the protests in Egypt it could be an issue of Cooper being an openly gay man in a Muslim country. Cooper is in much more danger going to a Middle Eastern Muslim country than he ever was braving a hurricane. Wouldn't be surprised if CNN had Cooper do a tour of those countries hoping something happened just so that they could get some good ratings... Very interesting story. Sort of the anti-Ari Gold (or I guess Ari Emanuel)... February is Black History Month and Dunkin Donuts makes it Chocolate Lovers Month? Is that some sort of code?... With the Yankees signing all these has-been starters to minor league deals - you know they have placed several calls to Mike Mussina just to see if he's been working out... The things you learn via the Internet (via Mental Floss): "Although it's featured on California's state flag, the grizzly bear has been extinct in the state since the 1920s"... Holy crap - this guy is badass. Good for him. Is it bad that now I'll think of him each time I fire up a Gurkha cigar?... Julio Lugo was the Meister Brau of Red Sox shortstops. Just thinking of him leaves a bad taste in my mouth and gives me a headache... The new NFL overtime rules could play havoc with Super Bowl pools. The final score payouts and score change payouts could be chaos... I was praying that Ben Roethlisberger would be quoted saying "Giggity giggity" during yesterday's Super Bowl media day. No such luck...

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

I am saddened by the death of Steve Landesberg. His character, Lieutenant Dietrich on Barney Miller was one of my favorites of all-time... Wow - last night's lunar eclipse brought renewed interest for Bobbie Tyler's Total Eclipse of the Heart. I was not aware that E-Street Band stalwarts Max Weinberg (drums) and Roy Bittan (piano) along with Rick Derringer (guitar) played on that song... Business term I hate most is "best effort". If not specified does that mean you're getting whatever effort the vendor feels like?... It is not fair but I can almost guarantee that Jeff Bagwell will get more Hall of Fame votes than Fred McGriff. Both players finished top 10 in MVP voting 6 times and both won 3 Silver Slugger awards at first base but McGriff has more career HR, RBI and total bases... You’re a Mean One, Mr. Grinch was sung by Thurl Ravenscroft who was also the voice of Tony the Tiger for Frosted Flakes... Like a good neighbor State Farm is there (with me minus 20 pounds). (Shit does not work in real life.)... Do you think the Yankees have called Mike Mussina just to see if he's been keeping in shape?... I imagine the $2 mil the Royals sent to the Brewers in the Zach Greinke trade was for Yuniesky Betancourt's 2012 buyout... When did Terry Bowden turn into Tim Allen from the Santa Clause movie?... The Brewers have now assembled a pretty good starting staff with the Greinke trade but they still need closer. Is Rafael Soriano next move?

Yankees 2009 Starting Rotation

So far this off-season the Yankees have added CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett but they have also lost Mike Mussina to retirement and Andy Pettitte is a free agent who may not be returning. So in essence you have added two starting pitchers and have probably lost 2 starting pitchers. How do the pairs compare? Using 2008 numbers:

Sabathia 17-10 / 35 GS / 253 IP / 76 ER / 2.70 ERA
Burnett 18-10 / 35 GS / 221 IP / 100 ER / 4.07 ERA
Combined 35-20 / 70 GS / 474 IP / 3.34 ERA / 6.77 IP/GS

Mussina 20-9 / 34 GS / 200 IP / 75 ER / 3.37 ERA
Pettitte 14-14 / 33 GS / 204 IP / 103 ER / 4.54 ERA
Combined 34-23 / 67 GS / 404 IP / 3.97 ERA / 6 IP/GS

The incoming tandem had 1 more win and 3 fewer losses (and yes I know how subjective wins and losses are). Even if you added 4 additional wins to the Yankees in 2008 - they still would have finished in 3rd place.

Probably most significant among the above stats is the fact that the new combo pitched about 1 more inning per start than the old combo. The Yankees bullpen was a weak spot for the team last year (and probably next as well) so going deeper into a start is a big plus. The caveat that has to be noted is that both CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett had their career bests in innings pitched last year. Asking them to match those numbers may be asking too much. It is very likely that the extra inning per start will evaporate and the production levels will be along the lines of what Mussina and Pettitte contributed.

An independent measurement of a player's contributions is Bill James' Win Share Method (where 4 win shares = one team win). Here's how the 4 players did in 2008:

Sabathia 25 WS
Mussina 18 WS
Burnett 14 WS
Pettitte 11 WS

Based upon those numbers the incoming duo had 10 more win shares which translates to 2.5 more wins. Which again wouldn't have been enough to have gotten the Yankees out of 3rd place last season.

I guess this is a long way to explain that Yankee fans shouldn't be placing orders for World Series travel plans quite yet.

Just Saying

Yes the Yankees signed CC Sabathia to a big contract but how will that convert into wins and losses for the Yankees? I have long believed that the first year in the Bronx is taxing on any pitcher and even the biggest names have struggled in their first season. Here's how the last 6 big name pitchers have fared during their first year at the House that Ruth built.

Carl Pavano - 4-6 with a 4.73 ERA
Randy Johnson - 17-8 with a 3.79 ERA
Kevin Brown - 10-6 with a 4.09 ERA
Javier Vazquez - 14-10 with a 4.91 ERA
Roger Clemens - 14-10 with a 4.60 ERA
Mike Mussina - 17-11 with a 3.15

Everyone is optimistic that CC won't be overwhelmed by the experience of playing in the Big Apple. The argument goes that his temperament and his experience of playing in the American League will cancel out any extra pressure of playing for the Yankees in New York. That clearly hasn't been the case historically.

The Yankees will be lucky to get 17 wins out of Sabathia. Lucky! More likely they are looking at 14 (if history is any guide). Keep in mind that Sabathia is taking Mussina's slot and Mussina finally won 20 for the Yankees in the 8th and final year of his contract. Everyone was optimistic that given the run support of the Yankees that the super free agent Mussina could be penciled in for 20 wins a year. How did that work out? How many rings does Mussina have again?

Omar Vizquel

I feel bad for Omar Vizquel. With the Giants signing Edgar Renteria it could be all over for Omar Vizquel. Here's something I wrote about the possible Hall of Fame Class of 2014:

Finally you have the case of Omar Vizquel who deserves induction as one of the greatest defensive shortstops in history (11 Gold Gloves). It can be argued that Vizquel was the better all-around player than Ozzie Smith but my guess is if he tries to go in with all these other greats then unfortunately he gets greatly overshadowed.

I think that still holds. Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and maybe Jeff Kent and Pedro Martinez will overshadow Vizquel and he won't get his due. It's sad but true.

Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine are also the reason Mike Mussina won't get voted in. The true reason Mussina should get passed over is because he doesn't belong but it will be the overshadowing of Maddux and Glavine (and maybe Pedro Martinez if Pedro doesn't play another season) that will cause Mussina to be overlooked in reality.

Mike Mussina - Hall of Famer?

My immediate reaction is "No - Mike Mussina is not a Hall of Famer". King Kaufman has a very good article on Mike Mussina and the Hall of Fame which I'd like to use as my jumping off point to show why Mike Mussina is not a Hall of Famer. Two things to point out about the Kaufman piece - first he correctly writes that the Hall of Fame is "meant to honor the great, not the very good." Secondly he mentions by name ten pitchers (other than Mike Mussina) in his column. I'd like to take the comparison against these ten people Kaufman deemed worthy to mention by name to make my point:

Don Sutton - Hall of Famer with 324 wins, a .559 winning percentage and an ERA+ of 108. Like Mussina - Sutton never won a Cy Young Award and was never the dominant pitcher of his league. Like Mussina - Sutton also never won a World Series but acquitted himself so-so in the post season (Sutton was 6-4 with a 3.68 ERA in 14 post season starts while Mussina was 7-8 with a 3.42 ERA in 21 post season starts). Unlike Mussina - Sutton did hang around long enough to win 300 games. Sutton wins the Hall of Fame attendance award. He wasn't great but he was there. Mussina's not there. He's walking away from the game. He's healthy and he's made his money. Now's he's done. He won't be like a Koufax or Pedro Martinez (two players Kaufman did not mention by name) who didn't/won't make it to 300 wins because their arms gave way. Mussina wasn't close to being in Pedro's or Sandy's class. And by not sticking around - he's not even in Sutton's class either. Winning 300 is not a magic ticket but the reason you leave the game should be a determining factor in Hall of Fame voting.

Gaylord Perry - Hall of Famer with 314 wins and ERA+ of 117 and 2 Cy Young Awards. Perry won 20 games or more on 5 occasions and led his league in wins 3 separate seasons. Mussina had one 20-win season and as will be repeatedly pointed out - never won a Cy Young Award.

Early Wynn - Hall of Famer and the poster boy for hanging around to get 300 wins. Wynn also won a Cy Young Award. It should be noted that Wynn left baseball in 1963 but was not voted into the Hall of Fame until 1972. Wynn had 300 wins and a Cy Young and yet he was made to wait to gain entry into the Hall. Some people are acting like Mike Mussina should not just be a Hall of Famer but a first ballot Hall of Famer. Has the disease of entitlement extended so far that now the very good players like Mussina feel entitled to join the greats of the game? I say no to Mike Mussina in the Hall of Fame. And I say no again.

Tom Glavine - Kaufman says that Glavine is "a pitcher very much in Mussina's class" but that's pure BS. Glavine won 2 Cy Young Awards and was top 3 in voting for the award 6 times. In 5 spearate seasons Glavine led his league in wins and in 1995 he won the World Series MVP award. Mussina isn't close to being in Glavine's class.

Bert Blyleven - This guy has been made to wait to get into the Hall of Fame since he became eligible in 1997. On top of everything else - Blyleven is 5th on the all-time strikeout list and he acquitted himself very well in the playoffs. Blyleven has two World Series rings to Mussina's ZERO. Blyleven was 5-1 in 5 post season series with a 2.47 ERA. That's a run lower than Mussina's post season ERA. And have I mentioned that Blyleven hasn't been voted into the Hall of Fame? Yet Mike Mussina is supposed to waltz in? By all that's holy - don't let it be so.

Tom Seaver - He's one of the all-time greats. Mussina shouldn't even be mentioned in the same breath. Shame on you King Kaufman for bringing up Tom Seaver.

Eddie Plank - Hall of Famer with 326 wins. Mentioning Plank is a complete misdirection by Kaufman. Plank was the first lefty in history with 300 wins but according to Kaufman's logic - if Mussina's aunt was his uncle then Mussina could have had as many wins as Plank.

Cy Young and Walter Johnson - you're kidding right?

Jamie Moyer - finally Kaufman names a player you could feel comfortable saying was not as good as Mike Mussina. So the whole argument for Mike Mussina getting into the Hall of fame comes down to the fact that he was better than Jamie Moyer? Yeesh.

As far as I'm concerned - Mike Mussina made over $144 million playing baseball. Now he gets to walk away from baseball, spend that money and spend time with his family. What he does not get is to walk into the Hall of Fame. He is not entitled to that. It is not the Hall of Very Good. As time passes - I guessing more and more people will come to their senses regarding Mike Mussina and the Hall of Fame.

What Mussina Hath Wrought

It’s taken 8 years but Mike Mussina has finally done it.

Back in 2000 Mussina was the staff ace and upcoming free agent to be on a team of overpaid players, most of whom were on the down-slopes of their careers. You had the image conscious superstar 3rd baseman who was really a natural shortstop. Heck you even have Sidney Ponson starting for both teams. The names may have changed from Cal Ripken to Alex Rodriguez or from Albert Belle, Will Clark and Brady Anderson to Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu and Johnny Damon. It may be me but both teams seem eerily reflective of Mike Mussina’s personality. The results may also end up pretty much the same. That 2000 team of Mussina’s ended up in 4th place in the AL East. And 4th place is where the Yankees are currently heading.

Ladies and gentlemen – I give you the New York Orioles. Courtesy of Mike Mussina.

Of course I'm just kidding but the similarity between the 2000 Orioles and the 2008 New York Yankees has to give Yankee fans reason to pause and think.

The New York Yankees

The Yankees are poised to have a significant turnover in their roster from this year to next. They have 7 big contracts that could be coming off the books after this October. The players include:

Jason Giambi - $5 million buy-out or $22 million club option. So if they do the buy-out they still save $16 million over 2008 costs. Buh-bye.
Bobby Abreu - $16 million. I don't think he'll be back but I could be wrong.
Andy Pettitte - $16 million. Very well could be back as insurance against the youngsters continuing to stumble. If the Yankees fail to land a top free agent starter - then he'll definitely be back if he wants to pitch.
Mike Mussina - $11 million. Buh-bye.
Carl Pavano - $1.95 million buy-out or $13 million option. So if they do the buy-out they save roughly $9 million over 2008 costs. Buh-bye.
Kyle Farnsworth - $5.5 million. Baseball's answer to the hockey goon.
LaTroy Hawkins - $3.75 million. God awful. Buh-bye.

Combined those 7 players equate to $71.75 million (after buy-outs) that could be coming off the books after this season. If those players were let go then that would open holes in RF, 1st, a couple of starter positions and a couple of bullpen positions. What free agents would be available to fill those slots?

The big target would be Mark Teixeira and I'm guessing Scott Boras will squeeze Hank Steinbrenner for a Jason Giambi type deal. If they fail to land Teixeira then they may have to go with a young player or convert Matsui or Posada to a 1st baseman.

The other big target (pun intended) will be starter CC Sabathia. Look for Steinbrenner to throw Johan Santana money at CC (and if Sabathia's appetite for money is anything like his appetite for food then Cleveland can probably waive bye-bye to CC). Best case scenario for the Yankees is a rotation of Sabathia, Wang, Chamberlain, Hughes and Kennedy.

So the Yankees could possibly spend $44 million or so on Teixeira and Sabathia and still have about $27 million available to fill in the rest of the holes with marginal free agents and young players from the farm system. If the Yankees fail to land at least one of these two targets then they could be in a world of hurt next year.

Two things to note and neither item should be overlooked:

First - with that many aging veterans in their "walk" years the Yankees will probably be faced both with injuries and with an elevated level of selfishness in the clubhouse for the rest of the season. The selfishness is only natural when you think of how pampered and self-centered most millionaire athletes are in the first place. There could be lots of sniping in the clubhouse and the problem could spiral out of control with no Joe Torre father-figure around to keep it in check. Don't discount this factor in what looks to be a 3rd place finish for the Yankees in the AL East this year.

Second - the Yankees biggest rivals - the Red Sox - have no such issues. The Sox will just have to deal with a new contract for Jason Varitek and Varitek has made it clear he wants to stay in Boston.

M-U-S-S-I-N-A

Heh heh - this is pretty clever.

HT Sports Frog

Red Sox Magic Number - 31

With the Red Sox beating the Devil Rays and the Yankees being eviscerated by the Angels last night - the Red Sox magic number is now 31.

Jon Lester who was the winning pitcher in last night's game coincidently wears #31 for the Red Sox. Lester is an impressive 9-2 so far in his career with Boston. What is not impressive is the fact that his career ERA is over 5.00 (5.02 to be exact) and opponents are hitting .287 against him.

I know that Lester is an inspiration having beat cancer but as a major league pitcher - I'm just not sold on him. If Lester makes a start in the playoffs - I'm going to bet the over. Not to be harsh but Jon Lester is the leading reason to re-sign Curt Schilling for another season.

Meanwhile, the Yankees got destroyed last night in Anaheim which is near Los Angeles. Mike Mussina couldn't even get out of the second inning. Since I dumped on a Red Sox pitcher - I figure I should take this opportunity to be equal opportunity and dump on Mike Mussina as well.

This season Mike Mussina has been pretty bad. He's 8-9 with a 5.22 ERA. Batters are hitting over .300 against him (.305 to be exact). Where Jon Lester also has an ERA over 5.00 - there is hope that Lester will improve but with Mussina you get the feeling his career is now on a slippery slope and improvement is not on the horizon. If the Yankees did make the playoffs (which they won't) - Mussina would probably be slotted as their number 4 pitcher by Joe Torre (behind Wang, Pettitte and Clemens). He should also be behind Phillip Hughes but Torre likes his veterans.

Mike Mussina - number 5 starter for a second place team. That's what its come down to. At least Jon Lester won't cost the Red Sox $11 million next year.

Tim Wakefield and Stats

Tim Wakefield pitched six innings giving up just one run to help lead the Red Sox to a 7-1 victory over the Devil Rays last night. The stat that Tim Wakefield is now 8-0 against Tampa Bay in Tampa Bay and has beaten them 17 times overall kept being brought up during last night's broadcast.

As impressive as those numbers against Tampa Bay are - it is other numbers and stats about Tim Wakefield that I think are even more impressive.

Last night Tim Wakefield went into the game tied with fellow knuckleballer Joe Niekro in 89th place on the all-time strikeout list. Wakefield's 7 strikeouts last night not only broke the tie with Niekro but was also good enough to move him past Jason Schmidt and put Wakefield into 87th place all by himself with 1754 career strikeouts. The name that caught my eye on the list of all-time strikeouts was Ron Guidry at 84th place with 1778 strikeouts. Tim Wakefield could pass Louisiana Lightning in strikeouts? That gives some perspective into how good Wakefield's career truly has been so far.

Also the win last night gives Wakefield 163 wins for his career. That puts Wakefield just one win away from breaking into the top 200 for wins in baseball history. Maybe just as interesting it puts him just one win away from tying knuckleballer Wilbur Wood (and 4 other pitchers) in 196th place. Another name that caught my eye on the all-time wins list was Ron Guidry tied at 177th place with 170 wins. That's within striking distance for Wakefield.

Wakefield may not be close to being as good as knuckleball greats and Hall of Famers Phil Niekro or Hoyt Wilhelm in the pantheon of knuckleball pitchers but it can be argued that he's the in the company of Wilbur Wood and Joe Niekro. The strikeout list and wins list certainly support this.

I have mentioned Ron Guidry in relation to Wakefield on both the strikeout list and wins list. It is true that Guidry played in parts of 14 MLB seasons while Wakefield is now in his 15th season. That puts them about on an even playing field even if you say that Guidry's first two seasons shouldn't count because he spent most of those seasons in the minor leagues with just under 33 innings pitched with the Yankees. Those first two seasons for Guidry are offset by the time Wakefield had to spend in the bullpen and by the 1994 season where Wakefield got zero innings pitched at the MLB level (because of pitching in the minors and the MLB strike).

Now I am not trying to argue that Wakefield is close to being as good a pitcher as Ron Guidry but I am using this opportunity to show how just going by the stats can be misleading. Wakefield will most likely pass Guidry in both strikeouts and wins in comparable time spent at the MLB level but is not close to being the pitcher Guidry was at his peak. Mike Mussina, meanwhile, has pitched in 17 MLB seasons and has amassed 244 career wins. Mussina is a borderline Hall of Fame pitcher but in my book Mussina isn't close to being the pitcher Ron Guidry was and yet because he has stuck around to amass stats Mussina will probably get ten-times the Hall of Fame votes than what Guidry received.

Going full-circle back to Tim Wakefield in Tampa Bay, I'm surprised that back in 2000 when Wakefield was a free-agent that a dome team like Tampa Bay or Minnesota didn't try and scoop him up. Consider that in addition to the success Wakefield has had in Tampa Bay he's also 7-3 at the Metrodome with an excellent .216 batting average against some pretty good hitting Twins teams.