Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Not being critical of Jason Varitek but after watching his retirement announcement I am saying that I doubt if a career in broadcasting awaits him... If the average American guy spent as much time taking online lessons at Khan Academy as they do watching porn online - the country would be peopled with the equivalent of millions of Ph D level men... I am disappointed that AJ Burnett's fractured orbital bone was caused by a failed bunt attempt and not someone smushing a pie in his face... Interesting article on George Clooney. Read it if just for a great Harry Hamlin anecdote... Am I the only one who sometimes confused Carl Sagan and Paul Tsongas? They did sort of look alike... I always considered Johnny Damon to be a clean player. I wonder what he thinks about Ryan Braun getting his 50-game suspension rescinded while Damon is unable to find any work?... If I was a Division 1 college AD with a struggling baseball program - I'd think about making Jason Varitek an offer to be new head baseball coach.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

There was a heavyweight title fight last night. Did anyone notice?... The fact that Mike Cameron has more career Wins Above Replacement (WAR) that Kirby Puckett shows how flawed any stat can be. How many people who saw both players in real life would have pegged Cameron as the better player? Zero maybe? Yet you can make that argument using WAR. Lies, damned lies and statistics... I wonder if Harvard is selling Jeremy Lin jerseys in their bookstore. I would think that would be a big seller...  As a Red Sox fan - I would laugh my ass off if AJ Burnett flunked the physical for the Pirates and had to return to the Yankees. Please God make it so... The highest unemployment rate under President George W. Bush was 7.7% and he was crucified for it. The unemployment rate under President Obama has been over 8% basically his whole time in office. When does President Obama get held responsible for that?... FWIW - Casey Blake has a career batting average of .311 and an OPS of .999 in 103 plate appearances at Coors Field. He could be a sleeper at 3rd base if you play fantasy baseball... On this day in 1980 - Bon Scott the lead singer for AC/DC passed away. He was 34. His death remains one of the great "what might have been" moments in rock history.

The Loss

Last night I played poker and we started roughly at the same time as the Red Sox / Yankees game which was on in the background (the poker game in one room with the TV in the other - the losers lounge as it were). It was a $20 buy in with 8 guys and just the top two spots getting paid. The poker game moved rather quickly - the baseball game not so much. We managed to play 4 games before people had to quit. Still the Red Sox and Yankees game was still going - tied 0-0 in the 14th inning. I was home in time to see A-Rod's walk-off home run in the 15th.

I could relate to the Red Sox. Like Boston - I'm a player with loads of potential but I too was shut out last night. I didn't cash even once. Losing last night was not the end of the world. Sure neither me nor Tito and the boys came out on top but it was a memorable night nonetheless. One thing's for sure - the loss didn't put me in desperation mode and I'm sure the same is true for Terry Francona and Theo Epstein.

The loss did put Boston 4.5 games back behind the Yankees in the AL East. It didn't put the Red Sox out of the playoffs. Some people are over-reacting to the defeat. Take Bill Simmons for example who Tweeted:

That game didn't just kill the 2009 Red Sox season, it chopped it up and put it in different suitcases like a serial killer.

Whoa - whoa. The Red Sox still have 54 games to go and they are still a game up over Texas in the Wild Card race. The pessimists who are writing off the Red Sox season after the past 4 games will point out that the Rangers don't have to play a tough AL East schedule. I'd like to point out that the Red Sox have a huge advantage over Texas in the number of home vs road games remaining (Boston plays 6 more home games than Texas the rest of the way).

I am still confident that the Red Sox make the playoffs and come playoff time who do you think is more likely to repeat last night's performance - Josh Beckett or AJ Burnett? Beckett and Jon Lester are still the most formidable 1 - 2 punch in the playoffs. The Red Sox should be adding a healthy Jason Bay back into the mix and then a healthy Tim Wakefield and then (hopefully) a healthy Dice-K. Who will the Yankees be adding? Who will the Rangers be adding?

Sure last night's loss was tough but I'm still bullish on the Red Sox.

Yankees 2009 Starting Rotation

So far this off-season the Yankees have added CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett but they have also lost Mike Mussina to retirement and Andy Pettitte is a free agent who may not be returning. So in essence you have added two starting pitchers and have probably lost 2 starting pitchers. How do the pairs compare? Using 2008 numbers:

Sabathia 17-10 / 35 GS / 253 IP / 76 ER / 2.70 ERA
Burnett 18-10 / 35 GS / 221 IP / 100 ER / 4.07 ERA
Combined 35-20 / 70 GS / 474 IP / 3.34 ERA / 6.77 IP/GS

Mussina 20-9 / 34 GS / 200 IP / 75 ER / 3.37 ERA
Pettitte 14-14 / 33 GS / 204 IP / 103 ER / 4.54 ERA
Combined 34-23 / 67 GS / 404 IP / 3.97 ERA / 6 IP/GS

The incoming tandem had 1 more win and 3 fewer losses (and yes I know how subjective wins and losses are). Even if you added 4 additional wins to the Yankees in 2008 - they still would have finished in 3rd place.

Probably most significant among the above stats is the fact that the new combo pitched about 1 more inning per start than the old combo. The Yankees bullpen was a weak spot for the team last year (and probably next as well) so going deeper into a start is a big plus. The caveat that has to be noted is that both CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett had their career bests in innings pitched last year. Asking them to match those numbers may be asking too much. It is very likely that the extra inning per start will evaporate and the production levels will be along the lines of what Mussina and Pettitte contributed.

An independent measurement of a player's contributions is Bill James' Win Share Method (where 4 win shares = one team win). Here's how the 4 players did in 2008:

Sabathia 25 WS
Mussina 18 WS
Burnett 14 WS
Pettitte 11 WS

Based upon those numbers the incoming duo had 10 more win shares which translates to 2.5 more wins. Which again wouldn't have been enough to have gotten the Yankees out of 3rd place last season.

I guess this is a long way to explain that Yankee fans shouldn't be placing orders for World Series travel plans quite yet.