Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Alex Rodriguez's actions this season seem like the actions of a man laying the foundation for an insanity plea... Heh heh - the Royal baby introduced to the public... Andy Pettitte just passed Sandy Koufax on the all-time strikeout list but it took Pettitte 912 more innings to do it. Meanwhile Pettitte now has 719 fewer K's than Curt Schilling in basically the same number of innings... George HW Bush shaves his head in support of the son of secret service agent. It should be recalled that George and Barbara lost their first daughter Robin to childhood leukemia. History will be kind to this good man... With NASCAR going to NBC from ESPN - will Brad Daugherty now start doing more college basketball games for the Mothership?... From now on I am going to intriduce myself as a "minor celebrity" - Chris Lynch Minor Celebrity. Who is to argue the point? I may even have cards made up... Peter King did a Reddit AMA (ask me anything). I really hope someone asked him how many NFL coaches have a foot fetish. He'd have to answer at least one...

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

I wanted to watch the John Wayne classic The Quiet Man for Saint Patrick's Day but surprisingly Netflix doesn't have it. So I watched Green Lantern instead... How a particle accelerator works explained with donuts and Kit-Kats... Who knew? According to Mental Floss - "Temple was founded in 1884 as a night school and its students were called 'night owls' - thus the Owl nickname"... Good Las Vegas bet - man bets $120 on Norfolk State money line at 45-1 and wins $5,520... What is the potential upside to the Yankees signing the soon to be 40-year old Andy Pettitte? Well consider that when Jamie Moyer was 40-years old he went 21-7 with a 3.27 ERA for the Mariners... Bad Las Vegas bet - man bets $2,800 on Duke trying to win $280. Say goodbye to the $2,800... I was in three NCAA pools giving me 6 teams. All 6 teams were out by the time it struck midnight on Saint Patrick's Day... Because stretching is important...

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Today the Red Sox released 2006 1st round pick Kris Johnson who was taken with the 40th pick. The Yankees took Joba Chamberlain with the 41st pick immediately after the Red Sox took Johnson. I always wondered how Joba would have done with the Sox. Would he be in the Danial Bard role (who was also taken in the 1st round in that 2006 draft)? Would Joba and Kevin Youkilis be friends?... The things you learn via the Internet (via Mental Floss): The 1900 Summer Olympics in Paris featured a live pigeon-shooting event. It never appeared in the Games again... Did not know this: Carl Yastrzemski won Triple Crown in 1967 but he and Harmon Killebrew actually were tied for the league lead in HR that season with 44... Just for the record - I DID NOT SLEEP WITH @paugasol woman!!! either!!!... The guy in that Stamps.com commercial who says "There's nothing worse than waiting in line at the Post Office" should be made to eat a dead rat. Or maybe visit the Holocaust museum. There's millions of things worse than waiting in line for a few minutes... You have to think that the Yankees handling of Jorge Posada has to kill any chance of Andy Pettitte returning to the team. Enjoy your retirement Andy.

Curt Schilling vs Andy Pettitte

I happened to hear a debate on WEEI regarding Andy Pettitte's chance for the Baseball Hall of Fame vs Curt Schilling's chances. One major thing they overlooked while I was listening was the fact that Curt Schilling has over 3,000 strikeouts for his career.

Now I don't happen to think that Andy Pettitte is a Hall of Fame player but I do think Schilling is just over the threshold. I think it is his 3,116 strikeouts that put Schilling over the top (Pettitte had just 2,251).

There have been just 16 players in baseball history with more than 3,000 strikeouts. Of that number 10 are already in the Hall of Fame. The other players have names like Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz and Curt Schilling. That group pretty much says it all. I know that as the strikeout lost its stigma to batters that it became easier for pitchers to get a K but also consider that this change in attitude also coincided with a move to a five-man rotation.

Think of it this way - there have been 27 players with 3,000 hits in baseball history making 3,000 strikeouts the more rare feat. For another comparison - players like Marquis Grissom and Jose Cruz finished with 2,251 hits (the number of K's Pettitte had). Now Cruz and Grissom were good players but I don't think anyone would argue they were Hall of Fame players.

Is Andy Pettitte a Hall of Fame Pitcher?

Is Andy Pettitte a Hall of Fame Pitcher? The answer to that is - no he is not.

Pettitte has 240 wins, a career ERA of 3.88 (ERA+ of 117) and just 2,251 strikeouts. Those are not Hall of Fame numbers.

His supporters will point out that he has more post season wins than any player in history. His detractors will point out that he also had the most post season starts. They will point out that Jack Morris had a better post season ERA and is better known for his post season exploits but that isn't helping Morris into the Hall.

His Yankee supporters will point out that he was great for the Yankees. His detractors will point out that Mike Mussina had a better career and if Mussina isn't in the Hall five years from now what chance does Andy have?

His supporters will say Andy was one of the nicest and most humble men in baseball. His detractors will point out that he was also a steroids cheat.

Today there is a groundswell among his supporters that Andy is a Hall of Fame player. The bottom line is five years from now the reality that he is not will have set in.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

I wonder if Michael Vick would still vote for himself for MVP after yesterday's performance. I hate to toot my own horn but I did call that Vick would make the Eagles a one and out playoff team... Kind of funny to see Drew Brees and Peyton Manning in commercials now that their teams were eliminated in the first round... I guess "Wealthy Hippies" don't exist... The things you learn from the Internet: The La-Z-Boy got its name in a contest. Other submissions included the Sit-N-Snooze and the Slack-Back (via Mental Floss)... Very interesting theory - is Roger Clemens the real reason Andy Pettitte is retiring?... Every time I see that ad for Lectric Shave with Carmen Electra - I think the ad is going to be for a porn movie... When I was growing up people were worried about Irish bombs. Today it is Irish bonds. Is that progress?... Most comic use for activated carbon ever. If you are anything like me - you actually read that and think about buying some... The things you learn from the Internet Part II: Before renaming the team "Jets" in 1963, the New York Titans franchise considered the names Dodgers, Gothams and Borros (via Mental Floss). Too bad they didn't go with Borros because with a jackass for a coach it would really fit...

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

It has to be noted that the Yankees had a chance to trade for Roy Oswalt last July and they pretty much passed. They were a playoff team who had old teammate Andy Pettitte as a selling point and his remaining contract is chicken feed to them but yet the Yankees did not pursue Oswalt with any enthusiasm. Do you think they are re-thinking that decisions lately?... Am I the only one waiting for the NASCAR headline that reads "Danica Patrick on Pole"? And it meaning what you hope it means?... “Alcohol may be man’s worst enemy, but the bible says love your enemy.” – Frank Sinatra... Speaking of Andy Pettitte - it has to be remembered that last time around the Yankees gave him the high hat with a take it or leave it $5.5 million contract offer. People keep talking about Carl Pavano as the best remaining free agent starter but it is actually Andy Pettitte. How big of an FU would it be if Pettitte decided to play again this year but just not for the Yankees? Can you imagine the ripping Hank Steinbrenner would get if Pettitte signed with say the Rangers?... If I worked in the front office of an independent minor league team - I would have made a 7-year contract offer to Cliff Lee just so I could send out press release saying I was mystery team...

Yankees 2009 Starting Rotation

So far this off-season the Yankees have added CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett but they have also lost Mike Mussina to retirement and Andy Pettitte is a free agent who may not be returning. So in essence you have added two starting pitchers and have probably lost 2 starting pitchers. How do the pairs compare? Using 2008 numbers:

Sabathia 17-10 / 35 GS / 253 IP / 76 ER / 2.70 ERA
Burnett 18-10 / 35 GS / 221 IP / 100 ER / 4.07 ERA
Combined 35-20 / 70 GS / 474 IP / 3.34 ERA / 6.77 IP/GS

Mussina 20-9 / 34 GS / 200 IP / 75 ER / 3.37 ERA
Pettitte 14-14 / 33 GS / 204 IP / 103 ER / 4.54 ERA
Combined 34-23 / 67 GS / 404 IP / 3.97 ERA / 6 IP/GS

The incoming tandem had 1 more win and 3 fewer losses (and yes I know how subjective wins and losses are). Even if you added 4 additional wins to the Yankees in 2008 - they still would have finished in 3rd place.

Probably most significant among the above stats is the fact that the new combo pitched about 1 more inning per start than the old combo. The Yankees bullpen was a weak spot for the team last year (and probably next as well) so going deeper into a start is a big plus. The caveat that has to be noted is that both CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett had their career bests in innings pitched last year. Asking them to match those numbers may be asking too much. It is very likely that the extra inning per start will evaporate and the production levels will be along the lines of what Mussina and Pettitte contributed.

An independent measurement of a player's contributions is Bill James' Win Share Method (where 4 win shares = one team win). Here's how the 4 players did in 2008:

Sabathia 25 WS
Mussina 18 WS
Burnett 14 WS
Pettitte 11 WS

Based upon those numbers the incoming duo had 10 more win shares which translates to 2.5 more wins. Which again wouldn't have been enough to have gotten the Yankees out of 3rd place last season.

I guess this is a long way to explain that Yankee fans shouldn't be placing orders for World Series travel plans quite yet.

The New York Yankees

The Yankees are poised to have a significant turnover in their roster from this year to next. They have 7 big contracts that could be coming off the books after this October. The players include:

Jason Giambi - $5 million buy-out or $22 million club option. So if they do the buy-out they still save $16 million over 2008 costs. Buh-bye.
Bobby Abreu - $16 million. I don't think he'll be back but I could be wrong.
Andy Pettitte - $16 million. Very well could be back as insurance against the youngsters continuing to stumble. If the Yankees fail to land a top free agent starter - then he'll definitely be back if he wants to pitch.
Mike Mussina - $11 million. Buh-bye.
Carl Pavano - $1.95 million buy-out or $13 million option. So if they do the buy-out they save roughly $9 million over 2008 costs. Buh-bye.
Kyle Farnsworth - $5.5 million. Baseball's answer to the hockey goon.
LaTroy Hawkins - $3.75 million. God awful. Buh-bye.

Combined those 7 players equate to $71.75 million (after buy-outs) that could be coming off the books after this season. If those players were let go then that would open holes in RF, 1st, a couple of starter positions and a couple of bullpen positions. What free agents would be available to fill those slots?

The big target would be Mark Teixeira and I'm guessing Scott Boras will squeeze Hank Steinbrenner for a Jason Giambi type deal. If they fail to land Teixeira then they may have to go with a young player or convert Matsui or Posada to a 1st baseman.

The other big target (pun intended) will be starter CC Sabathia. Look for Steinbrenner to throw Johan Santana money at CC (and if Sabathia's appetite for money is anything like his appetite for food then Cleveland can probably waive bye-bye to CC). Best case scenario for the Yankees is a rotation of Sabathia, Wang, Chamberlain, Hughes and Kennedy.

So the Yankees could possibly spend $44 million or so on Teixeira and Sabathia and still have about $27 million available to fill in the rest of the holes with marginal free agents and young players from the farm system. If the Yankees fail to land at least one of these two targets then they could be in a world of hurt next year.

Two things to note and neither item should be overlooked:

First - with that many aging veterans in their "walk" years the Yankees will probably be faced both with injuries and with an elevated level of selfishness in the clubhouse for the rest of the season. The selfishness is only natural when you think of how pampered and self-centered most millionaire athletes are in the first place. There could be lots of sniping in the clubhouse and the problem could spiral out of control with no Joe Torre father-figure around to keep it in check. Don't discount this factor in what looks to be a 3rd place finish for the Yankees in the AL East this year.

Second - the Yankees biggest rivals - the Red Sox - have no such issues. The Sox will just have to deal with a new contract for Jason Varitek and Varitek has made it clear he wants to stay in Boston.

Trainspotting - The US Version

It has long been a tradition to take an English made movie or TV show and Americanize it. The most recent glaring example being the TV show The Office which was a re-make of the English version starring Ricky Gervais. When an import from England is Americanized some changes have to me made to account for the differences in culture. For instance the original book and movie Fever Pitch was about soccer but the American version of the movie was about baseball.

I bring this up because it occurred to me that perhaps the best way to capture the current HGH problem in baseball would be to re-make the 1996 English movie Trainspotting. The original story was how a bunch of friends dealt with heroin addiction but the American version could easily have a change in drug of choice.

Two things made me think the re-make could work. First you could rename the main character Clemens instead of Renton but the scene of the main character being sucked down the toilet by his drug use could pretty much remain intact. In fact can you think of anything that better symbolizes the state that "Clemens" currently finds himself in than being literally sucked down a toilet? Plus in the original the main character goes to London for a fresh start - in the remake we can have the main character move to Houston.

Secondly you have the character Tommy in the original movie who was a clean living athlete who gets introduced to drugs by Renton (nee Clemens) and whose life falls apart because of the drugs. In the remake we could call this character Pettitte.

Just using these two things as a starting point could lead to a successful remake if you ask me.

I'm not sure who could play the Begbie character in the re-make.

Schilling and Pettitte

Some news on the status of two veteran pitchers that reflects the status of the two franchises as well as the status of the pitchers themselves.

First, Rob Bradford - a very reliable source - reports that a one year deal to bring Curt Schilling back to the Sox is in the process of getting done. Schilling had been asking for a 1-year $13 million deal. It seems that he's going to have to accept something less than that if Schilling wants to stay.

Meanwhile, Andy Pettitte has declined his option with the Yankees. Supposedly Pettitte is still trying to decide if he wants to play next year or retire. I may be cynical but I'm guessing whether or not the Yankees are able to re-sign Jorge Posada to catch his games and Mariano Rivera to close his games will have a big impact on whether Pettitte wants to come back to the Bronx for another year.

I just find the juxtaposition of the two situations amusing. Schilling is practically begging to come back to the World Champion Red Sox and is willing to take a a below market contract to do so while Pettitte wants to watch the turmoil in the Bronx unfold a bit more before deciding what to do. It's amusing to see how Boston has become the stable franchise where players want to play in order to have the best chance to win a ring while the Yankees are quickly becoming the Baltimore Orioles.

It should also be noted that Pettitte has said he either will play in pinstripes next year or retire but has still filed his free agency papers. It would be a huge mistake for the Yankees not to offer Pettitte arbitration. Remember a couple of years ago when Clemens said he was retiring (the first time) and then turned around and signed with Houston? Because the Yankees took Roger at his word and did not offer him arbitration - they cost themselves two top draft picks.

Hot Stove Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous offseason baseball thoughts and observations.

Less than a week removed from the Red Sox winning the World Series and the sentimentality is starting to drop by the wayside. Monday if you asked me - I would have said that the Red Sox need to do whatever it takes to sign Mike Lowell. Today I'm not so sure. Yes I think it would be worth it to sign Lowell to something like a 3-year $40 million deal but anything over that in time or in money may not be worth it. Don't get me wrong - I want Lowell back and I think even though he's 34-years old I don't see a great drop off for Lowell either offensively or defensively, however, I do see him being dead money in 2011 if a 4th year is added to the contract... I would bring back Curt Schilling for the one-year deal he's looking for. The Red Sox have Josh Beckett, Dice-K, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholtz in the rotation for next year but Tim Wakefield is a question mark. Having Schilling back as the number 3 starter (he did have a 3.34 ERA post All-Star game this year) would take the pressure off the younger pitchers and would be insurance against injury. There is no pitcher available for free agency that could give the Red Sox such a known quantity at just a one-year deal. If all six starters remain healthy that also gives the Red Sox the flexibility to rest the starters more often which paid big dividends during the playoffs this year. Even though you are over-paying Schilling at $13 million its just for one year and that allows them to wait for the free agent class after next season to add a big arm... If I were Joe Girardi - I would be lighting prayer candles around the clock hoping that Andy Pettitte returned to pitch for the team in 2008. Pettitte is the rock of the Yankees pitching staff. All the other starters have question marks - Wang is so-so away from home, Mussina may be cooked, Hughes is young and has injury issues and Chamberlain may be better suited to the bullpen. The Yankees need Pettitte if they are to contend next year... I'm sure the Red Sox will offer Eric Gagne arbitration. It will be interesting to see down the line what becomes of the draft picks the Red Sox will get when Gagne signs elsewhere... I wasn't aware that Tom Werner was such a disliked person in San Diego. Just knowing that he had anything to do with Rosanne signing that national anthem that time makes my respect for Werner drop several notches...