Red Sox Magic Number - 109

The Red Sox magic number for this season is now 109. When I hear the number 109 - I think of JFK and his PT 109. However this Red Sox team bears no resemblance of to heroic tales of WWII and certainly no resemblance to JFK who was much more a good Scotch and Cuban cigars guy than a fried chicken and Bud Light fan.

No this Red Sox team is much closer to another 109 - that's the number of career wins Carl Pavano will have with his next victory. This team certainly has a Carl Pavano feel to it. A team with a connection to those great Red Sox teams from a few years ago (Pavano was traded for Pedro Martinez). A team that should have great potential but inexplicably doesn't meet that potential. A team that can't seem to shake a better than .500 record (Pavano's career winning percentage is .502). A team that can't shake injuries. And a team that honestly isn't that likable.

I have to say that for the past few days I've been doing "what could have been" scenarios in my head. I've been thinking that a good general manager should adopt the physicians creed of "first do no harm." I've also been wondering if Ben Cherington and the team would have been better off if he had done nothing at all.

Let's look at some of the moves:

- December 2011 - Sox trade Jed Lowrie to Astros for Mark Melancon. They then also sign utility man Nick Punto. Lowrie has 12 HR and an OPS of .920 this season (only David Ortiz has comparable numbers on the Red Sox) while Mike Aviles has an OPS of just .708 and an OPS+ of just 89 (100 is average for a hitter). Melancon was viewed as a set-up guy but the Red Sox had a great set-up guy in Daniel Bard. So the Red Sox weaken themselves at short and tried to move Bard to starter - how's that worked out? Plus if Lowrie isn't traded then Aviles fills the role Punto has (and does a better job at it).

- December 2011 - Sox trade Josh Reddick to Oakland for Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney. So far Reddick has 14 HR which would be leading the Red Sox while Bailey hasn't pitched an inning for the Red Sox because the often injured pitcher is injured.

- April 2012 - Sox trade for Marlon Byrd who was awful and released in less than 2 months. The Red Sox needed a centerfielder but had the talented Che-Hsuan Lin at Pawtucket. Why not reward the talented youngster with a call-up? It would have been much better for the team and much better for the bottom line.

I won't even get into the Marco Scutaro salary dump trade. The point I guess is that the Red Sox have to move Kevin Youkilis soon and I hope when they do that they improve the team but first I hope that they do no harm.

Because rooting for this team is getting to be like rooting for Carl Pavano.

Linky Links

Stuff I found interesting and thought I'd share.

Some lottery history including interesting quote from Thomas Jefferson

Some very cool tables - if you replaced the picnic table one with the wine bottles with beer bottles then that would be my favorite

This 2006 back page from the New York Post makes you wonder if they were trying to tell you something about Carl Pavano without actually telling you something about Carl Pavano

The 25 Greatest Anchorman GIF's - BTW Anchorman II should be called Tits McGee - The Reckoning 

Speaking of Tits McGee - today was National Cleavage Day

Brad Penny

The only pitchers in baseball who have started 4 games for their teams but yet have a worse ERA than Brad Penny and his 8.66 are the Mets' Oliver Perez (9.31) and the Indians' Carl Pavano (9.50).

The optimist in me says "At least the Red Sox don't have Oliver Perez and his 3-year $36 million contract." The pessimist in me says, "For Penny's production the Sox would have been better off with Pavano's $1.5 million contract." The realist in me says, "All three of these guys suck."

As an aside - Pavano's contract has $5.3 million in incentive bonuses. That's funny.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

Carl Pavano comes back to pitch against the Yankees today in the new Yankee Stadium the day after the Indians pounded they Yankees 22-4. Often a pitcher pitches very well against former team the first time out but just as often a top team who gets shelled the day before comes back the next day to do the shelling. It should be interesting to watch... File this under once a thought gets in your head - its tough to get that thought out. Nelson Figueroa pitches today for the Mets. In my mind I always confuse the 6'1" Figueroa with the 2'4" Nelson de la Rosa. I know this is completely unfair to the only major league player to ever play at Waltham Mass's Brandeis University but at this point I can't help it... Early season craziness. The Florida Marlins have the best record in baseball and the Pittsburgh Pirates have the best team ERA. Who knew?... Going into today's action - there are 20 major league players who have more home runs by themselves than the A's have as a team (3)... Just to simplify things - I think if Chipper Jones plays for the Braves today then the Braves win. If not - the Braves get swept by the Pirates... No team's offense has been better at not giving up free outs by striking out than the Phillies. As a team they have struck out just 50 times so far this season. The reason they don't have a winning record is because no team's pitching staff has been as generous at giving up home runs in baseball than the Phillies. Brad Lidge gave up the team's 25th dinger last night... Today is Rick Miller's 61st birthday. That makes me feel old. I remember a tale told about Miller of how he ended up getting a nice contract as a free agent in 1977 because Angels owner Gene Autrey told his GM to get that outfielder from the Red Sox and that Autrey liked that player. The GM signed Miller only to learn that Autrey was referring to Dwight Evans. Rick Miller is tied to Butch Hobson in his personal history. In 1980 - Miller with Mark Clear and Carney Lansford were traded to the Boston Red Sox for Rick Burleson and Butch Hobson then two years ago Miller replaced Hobson as coach of the CanAm league Nashua (NH) Pride...

Just Saying

Yes the Yankees signed CC Sabathia to a big contract but how will that convert into wins and losses for the Yankees? I have long believed that the first year in the Bronx is taxing on any pitcher and even the biggest names have struggled in their first season. Here's how the last 6 big name pitchers have fared during their first year at the House that Ruth built.

Carl Pavano - 4-6 with a 4.73 ERA
Randy Johnson - 17-8 with a 3.79 ERA
Kevin Brown - 10-6 with a 4.09 ERA
Javier Vazquez - 14-10 with a 4.91 ERA
Roger Clemens - 14-10 with a 4.60 ERA
Mike Mussina - 17-11 with a 3.15

Everyone is optimistic that CC won't be overwhelmed by the experience of playing in the Big Apple. The argument goes that his temperament and his experience of playing in the American League will cancel out any extra pressure of playing for the Yankees in New York. That clearly hasn't been the case historically.

The Yankees will be lucky to get 17 wins out of Sabathia. Lucky! More likely they are looking at 14 (if history is any guide). Keep in mind that Sabathia is taking Mussina's slot and Mussina finally won 20 for the Yankees in the 8th and final year of his contract. Everyone was optimistic that given the run support of the Yankees that the super free agent Mussina could be penciled in for 20 wins a year. How did that work out? How many rings does Mussina have again?

The New York Yankees

The Yankees are poised to have a significant turnover in their roster from this year to next. They have 7 big contracts that could be coming off the books after this October. The players include:

Jason Giambi - $5 million buy-out or $22 million club option. So if they do the buy-out they still save $16 million over 2008 costs. Buh-bye.
Bobby Abreu - $16 million. I don't think he'll be back but I could be wrong.
Andy Pettitte - $16 million. Very well could be back as insurance against the youngsters continuing to stumble. If the Yankees fail to land a top free agent starter - then he'll definitely be back if he wants to pitch.
Mike Mussina - $11 million. Buh-bye.
Carl Pavano - $1.95 million buy-out or $13 million option. So if they do the buy-out they save roughly $9 million over 2008 costs. Buh-bye.
Kyle Farnsworth - $5.5 million. Baseball's answer to the hockey goon.
LaTroy Hawkins - $3.75 million. God awful. Buh-bye.

Combined those 7 players equate to $71.75 million (after buy-outs) that could be coming off the books after this season. If those players were let go then that would open holes in RF, 1st, a couple of starter positions and a couple of bullpen positions. What free agents would be available to fill those slots?

The big target would be Mark Teixeira and I'm guessing Scott Boras will squeeze Hank Steinbrenner for a Jason Giambi type deal. If they fail to land Teixeira then they may have to go with a young player or convert Matsui or Posada to a 1st baseman.

The other big target (pun intended) will be starter CC Sabathia. Look for Steinbrenner to throw Johan Santana money at CC (and if Sabathia's appetite for money is anything like his appetite for food then Cleveland can probably waive bye-bye to CC). Best case scenario for the Yankees is a rotation of Sabathia, Wang, Chamberlain, Hughes and Kennedy.

So the Yankees could possibly spend $44 million or so on Teixeira and Sabathia and still have about $27 million available to fill in the rest of the holes with marginal free agents and young players from the farm system. If the Yankees fail to land at least one of these two targets then they could be in a world of hurt next year.

Two things to note and neither item should be overlooked:

First - with that many aging veterans in their "walk" years the Yankees will probably be faced both with injuries and with an elevated level of selfishness in the clubhouse for the rest of the season. The selfishness is only natural when you think of how pampered and self-centered most millionaire athletes are in the first place. There could be lots of sniping in the clubhouse and the problem could spiral out of control with no Joe Torre father-figure around to keep it in check. Don't discount this factor in what looks to be a 3rd place finish for the Yankees in the AL East this year.

Second - the Yankees biggest rivals - the Red Sox - have no such issues. The Sox will just have to deal with a new contract for Jason Varitek and Varitek has made it clear he wants to stay in Boston.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

Derek Jeter just moved into 5th place on the all-time Yankees hit list. He's still behind Lou Gehrig (2,721), Babe Ruth (2,518), Mickey Mantle (2,415) and Bernie Williams (2,336). Just for the record - Jeter would also be 5th on the all-time Red Sox list behind Carl Yastrzemski (3,419), Ted Williams (2,654), Jim Rice (2,452) and Dwight Evans (2,373)... Speaking of milestones - Manny Ramirez needs 7 more RBI to pass Fred McGriff for 35th place on the all-time list... The Red Sox and Yankees have both scored 244 runs this year. The reason the Red Sox lead the Yankees by 9.5 games is the fact that the Yankees pitching staff has given up almost as many runs as the Yankees have scored (212 runs allowed) while only the A's and Padres have given up fewer runs than the Red Sox pitching staff (173 runs allowed)... It looks like Carl Pavano is done as a member of the Yankees. His final totals as a Yankee should look like this - 5-6, 111 IP, 19 GS, 4.77 ERA. His contract was for $40 million though so I guess he gets the last laugh... A distressing fact for Yankee fans has to be the fact that the team is just 5-14 when opponents score first. Playoff caliber teams usually exhibit the will to fight no matter how many runs down they are. This Yankee team just doesn't seem to have that heart. And the same can be said about the fans. In Tuesday's loss to the Red Sox - Yankee fans were streaming out of Yankee Stadium starting in the 7th inning even though the team was just 4 runs down... Mike Sweeney's contract is up with the Royals at the end of this season and the Royals aren't exactly contending. as a 10-5 guy - Sweeney has the right to approve any trade but it should be noted that he gets a $1.5 million bonus if traded. That could be viewed as a parting gift by Kansas City to a loyal employee...

Pavano to Start Opening Day?

I don't believe in omens but if I did - I'd have to say that for the Yankees having to use Carl Pavano as the Opening Day starter would be the equivalent of a black cat walking under a ladder to break a mirror.

If Pavano performs poorly (and he has had control issues this spring - 5.84 ERA and a 7 walks to 5 K's ratio) - then the booing could be unmerciless at Yankee Stadium. Pavano seems like a fragile type to begin with. I'm not sure why Joe Torre would put the added pressure of being the Opening Day starter on Pavano's shoulders. I guess maybe the idea is either he swims or he sinks and the earlier to find out - the better.

The Yankees always have problems with the Devil Rays and as a Red Sox fan I'm hoping this becomes a complete disaster of a start for Pavano and the Yankees. So let it be written - so let it be done.