Roger Clemens

The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry. - Robert Burns

So Roger Clemens has signed with the Yankees. You may be surprised how little this bothers Red Sox fans. I'm not saying that I wouldn't have been happy to have seen Roger sign with the Sox and I don't deny that his signing makes the Yankees a better team. I'm just saying that his actual impact when all is said is done will probably be much less than what some talking heads are suggesting now.

The plan is for Roger to come into the Bronx, help right the pitching staff, stay healthy and allow the Yankees to win another World Championship. That's' the plan according to most of the talking heads and to the principles on the Yankee side as well. A bit ambitious wouldn't you say?

I'd look for Clemens to have about a 4.50 ERA and average about 5-6 innings per start. Not much more than that give or take. To be crass - last year Corey Lidle went 4-3 with a 5.07 ERA in 9 starts for the Yankees. I'd look for Clemens to double those numbers and not much more.

This isn't a jilted Red Sox fan talking - its a realist. Last year Clemens only had 19 starts for the Astros. Clemens and his agent both say they will have the same time table as last year. I take that to be the same number of starts. Clemens is 45-years old and hamstring injuries and back problems are specters that will haunt his every jog and every pitch for the Yankees. At the very least - I'd expect his fastball to lose 1-2 mph (and that's a very dangerous thing in the DH world of the AL).

One good thing that comes of this is the fact that with this slap in the face of the Red Sox brass by Clemens - it is now certain that the Red Sox will never retire Clemens' number 21. They will invoke that "must retire as a member of the Red Sox clause" which has been so helpful in keeping Wade Boggs' number from being retired. Hey Clemens is only tied for the Red Sox record for wins at 192. The man he's tied with - Cy Young - doesn't have his number retired either.

Roger Clemens will be going into the Hall of Fame but his plaque will have a Red Sox hat on it. The Yankees won't retire his number - the only two pitchers numbers retired by the Yankees are Whitey Ford's 16 and Ron Guidry's 49. They won't be retiring Roger's number for his paltry 5 plus seasons. The Astros certainly won't be retiring his number now either.

Now if the Red Sox really wanted to be petty - they would give his 21 to a September call up. And if the Astros wanted to be petty - they could release Clemens' son Koby and thus force the Yankees to use up a slot in their farm system.

If Roger had come to the Red Sox even in the worst case his 45-year old body could have won that one game to break that tie with Cy Young. Now he's signed with the Yankees. Best case scenario Roger stays healthy and wins 13 games to tie Kid Nichols for 7th place on the all-time wins list or maybe even 15 wins to tie Warren Spahn (who was twice the man Clemens could ever dream of being). And maybe all those wins help the Yankees win a Championship. That's the current plan but the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

There are only 4 teams in the AL who haven't scored 100 runs as a team yet and there are only 4 teams that haven't allowed 100 runs yet. Somehow both Oakland and the White Sox have managed to be on both lists... The New York press is into protecting Joe Torre mode and shifting the blame for the Yankees bad start onto GM Brian Cashman. Before blaming Cashman for the poor state of the Yankees pitching - let's look at who the Yankees signed this offseason and who they could have signed. They signed Kei Igawa (who came up big for them yesterday), brought back Andy Pettitte (a very good move) and re-signed Mike Mussina (they pretty much had to do that - 2-years $23 million). When you look at the free agents who could have made a significant impact - only three stand out (Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt and Randy Wolf) and all three of those signed deals with West Coast teams because they wanted to be in California. Realistically there wasn't much else Cashman could have done except for out-bidding the Red Sox for Daisuke Matsuzaka. If Cashman has an off-season sin - not getting Dice-K is it but I don't think that sin will cost him his job... It will be interesting to watch the Kirk Radomski situation unfold. Radomski admits dealing steroids from 1995 to 2005 but that's not something you just fall into. You don't just leave college and immediately start dealing cocaine (for example) without first being exposed to cocaine. It seems a rational assumption that Radomski was exposed to steroids use while working in the Mets clubhouse. Look for additional scrutiny to start falling on players like Jeff Kent, Bobby Bonilla and Howard Johnson who were three of the big sluggers during Radomski's time with the Mets... Julian Tavarez starts for the Red Sox today against the Yankees. I wish there was some place I could bet that Tavarez hits either Derek Jeter or Alex Rodriguez. If there was a place that took such bets - I'd probably parlay that he hits them both... I think Nick Cafardo is right on in his analysis of the A-Rod out clause in his contract:

Understanding the way Scott Boras operates and the inclusion of an out-clause in Alex Rodriguez's contract, I'm one of the few who believe A-Rod will stay with the Yankees. He'll stay with some enhancement to his contract, despite the current insistence of Yankee management not to tinker with the deal -- of which Texas is footing $21 million (of $81 million) over the final three years from 2008-10. Boras has perfect leverage in this case. Never mind the Angels, the leverage comes in the possibility that the Red Sox would be interested. The Yankees didn't want Gary Sheffield going to Boston, so they picked up his option and dealt him safely to the Tigers.

Only a couple of teams could afford A-Rod (the Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers and Angels). You can probably take the Mets off the list because they have David Wright at 3rd and Reyes at SS. You can also probably take the Dodgers off the list because they have Furcal at short and prospects like Andy LaRoche and Brandon Wood for 3rd. Couple that with the fact that the Yankees won't want A-Rod going to the Red Sox plus the fact that there really aren't any big name free agents next year (assuming the Cubs get a contract done with Carlos Zambano) - Carfardo is correct in that the Yankees will re-tool A-Rod's contract and he'll be in pinstripes next year.

Red Sox / Yankees - Live Blog

Friday night and I'm home with the kids. So I thought I'd take the time to jot down some thoughts as the game progressed (assuming its not rained out). Dice-K is going for the Red Sox tonight and many people may know that the Yankees are trying to stop a current 6-game losing streak but did you know that they have also lost 5-straight to the Red Sox (dating back to the last 2-games of last season)? If the Red Sox win tonight it will match the longest winning streak they ever had against the Yankees.

(7:03) I swear to God - when I heard Gary Thorne try to weasel out of his huge mistake about the bloody sock without ever saying that he apologized - I immediately thought of Captain Quint from Jaws, "Well it proves one thing, Mr. Thorne. It proves that you wealthy college boys don't have the education enough to admit when you're wrong."

(7:26) End of one and both Andy Pettitte and Dice-K look sharp. This could be a pretty quick game. Mike Lowell made a very nice play on A-Rod's grounder to end the inning.

(7:46) End of second inning. Jerry Remy and Don Orsillo spoke about Dice-K's personal masseuse during the inning. I'm just glad that the words "happy ending" were not muttered. If I had the opportunity - I would have bet that Dice-K was going to strikeout Hideki Matsui in their first encounter. Just as well as Matsui flies out to center. (I still say that Dice-K strikes out Godzilla at least once tonight.) The Yankees were a slight favorite tonight with the over / under at 9.5 runs. I think the under would have been a good bet.

(8:07) End of the third inning. Kevin Youkilis puts the Red Sox on top 2-0 with a 2-run HR. The Red Sox drafted Youkilis in 2001 in the 8th round. That year the Red Sox did not have a first round pick (they traded it to Cleveland who used it to draft pitcher Dan Denham who last year had a 8.21 ERA in Buffalo). The Red Sox first pick in the second round was Kelly Stopach who last year was traded to the Indians. So in a way - the Red Sox two top picks from 2001 are with the Indians. Youkilis is actually the only Red Sox pick in the first 8 rounds to come close to amounting to anything (besides Kelly Shoppach). Way to go there Dan Duquette!

(8:42) The Red Sox were not patient against Andy Pettitte and they quickly went down 1-2-3 whereas the Yankees were taking all sorts of pitches from Dice-K who walked the first three batters of the inning. They played Black Betty when Matsui came to bat. Do they always do that? I didn't know that Ram Jam was popular in Japan. Jorge Posada bloops in a single to make it 2-1. Damon's "excuse me" swing bloops in and scores 2 more to make it 3-2. Jeter squeaks a grounder through the right side and its 4-2. Those walks to lead off the inning are killing the Red Sox.

(9:09) Three walks, two singles and a wild pitch allow the Red Sox to score 3 to take a 5-4 lead. It looks like the under won't come in (good thing I didn't take it). It also looks like with Pettitte's pitch count up there - the Red Sox will be up against the vaunted (ha ha) Yankee bullpen.

(9:52) Sox lead 6-4 after Julio Lugo hit a HR. It's now the seventh inning stretch and I've been re-reading Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix. No reason why - I was looking for my copy of The Best and the Brightest and when I didn't find it - I picked this back up. I think I've read this book about 5 times now. Mike Timlin come in to relieve Dice-K.

(10:31) I started with a Captain Quint quote and I may as well finish up with one - this time Quint is talking about Jon Papelbon, "This closer, swallow you whole. No shakin', no tenderizin', down you go." The best laid quotes of mice and Jaws characters often go awry. The Red Sox score 4 runs in the top of the 9th to go ahead 11-4 and ruin the chances of Papelbon coming in. Joel Pineiro comes in instead.

(11:05) 4-hour game but the Red Sox win. Thaaaaaaaaaaa Red Sox win.

Red Sox / Yankees - Live Blog

At the last minute I decided to live blog tonight's game. What prompted the decision was me listening to Chris Berman doing Baseball Tonight on ESPN. They had just got done with the A's / Rangers highlights and Berman threw out the gem that Mike Piazza continues to impress with his switch to DH. Mike Piazza is hitting .242 with 1 HR and 4 RBI as the DH for the A's. Yeah Boomer - that's really impressive!

(7:44) Just as an aside - the Boys & Girls Clubs are an official charity of MLB. The NFL also supports the Boys & Girls Clubs but they do it through the United Way (unless things have changed). I think the way MLB does it is much better. Why lose money to the middle man when dealing with a charity? It makes no sense to me.

(8:00) The Red Sox have to start hitting home runs. Period. As a team the Red Sox only have 2 more HR than Alex Rodriguez and the only person other than David Ortiz to have more than one HR is Doug Mirabelli who only plays every 5th game.

(8:15) I hope the plate umpire squeezes the Yankee starter as bad as he's squeezing Dice-K who had Bobby Abreu struck out twice but didn't get the call. Even though A-Rod came in to score - I'm glad Dice-K pitched him inside and hit him. Yankees lead 2-0 on Giambi's double (had to love the "steroids" chant in the crowd). The Dice-K / Pedro similarities continue including a problem getting out of the first inning unscathed.

(8:37) OK - it looks like the ump will have a tight strike zone for both teams which is OK by me since I think Dice-K is better prepared to handle that than Chase Wright who was very lucky to get out of the first inning (Manny and Ortiz kill those pitches if they see them again).

(8:42) Joe Morgan said that Willy Mo Pena is playing because Coco Crisp is injured. That's news to me and coming from Morgan - I doubt if its true. Dice-K settles down in the second inning (just like Pedro used to do).

(9:05) I have to wonder if Pedroia wasn't playing so deep if JD Drew would have been able to charge in and catch that flair by Giambi? The Yankees lead 3-0 but they aren't hitting Dice-K, however, if this was a chess match I would compare it to a better player sacrificing some pawns in order to probe the defense of the opponent. Look for the Yankees to go scoreless in the next three innings. Meanwhile - I doubt if Wright makes it out of the 5th inning with the number of pitches he's thrown and the way he's been walking the razor's edge.

(9:17) I leave the room to grab a beer and Manny hits a bomb. Then JD Drew hits one. Then Mike Lowell hits one. Then Jason Varitek hits one out. Holy crap! I started out this post tonight by noting that the Red Sox needed to start hitting some home runs but I never imagined they would all come back-to-back in the same inning!

(9:52) I was correct about Wright not making it to the 5th but I was wrong about the Yankees not scoring on Dice-K - Jeter's HR ties the score at 4 each.

(10:21) End of six and Yankees lead 5-4. I'm going to have a bowl of ice cream. Chocolate marshmallow.

(10:40) Mike Lowell hits a 3-run HR off Scott Proctor. I swear I can't see Scott Proctor pitch without thinking about the Seinfeld quote, "According to the state of New York - you are the assman." Swear to God. Red Sox lead 7-5.

(11:00) Dice-K leaves the game after A-Rod starts off the 8th with a single. Hideki Okajima comes in and Joe Morgan says that Okajima isn't a "trickster". Umm sorry Joe - that's exactly what he is. Okajima relies on deception because he's not a fireballer. Oh and remember how you said Willy Mo Pena was playing because Coco Crisp was injured? Isn't that Coco Crisp out in center now? Joe Morgan is just awful. Does anyone out there like Joe Morgan as an announcer?

(11:15) Dustin Pedroia makes a nice stab to keep the score at 7-6. I think Francona pulled Dice-K when A-Rod got on base because he wanted to make sure that Dice-K could only win the game. Now I wonder if we'll see Jon Papelbon (I'm hoping we don't because that would mean that the Sox scored a couple in the bottom of the inning).

(11:33) Papelbon giving that cop a high-five on his way out of the bullpen is one of my favorite things in baseball. That cop must be a god to his friends and family for being Papelbon's good-luck charm. Johnny Damon flies to left - one out. Jeter fans - two outs. Nice pitch calling by Varitek on that strikeout. I think Abreu puts the bat on his shoulder (one swing you big phony). Abreu walks. I guess it was destined to come down to this - A-Rod vs Papelbon. Ground out - the Red Sox win. Thaaaaaaaa Red Sox win.

Red Sox / Yankees - Game 2 Preview

Really nice save by Hideki Okajima last night. It's amazing that he gave up a HR to his first batter this season and hasn't surrendered an earned run since. With Papelbon closing and Okajima, Donnelly and Timlin doing the 7th and 8th - the Sox bullpen should be OK this season.

A-Rod is certainly on fire but Red Sox starter Josh Beckett has been equally hot to start the season (3-0 with a 1.50 ERA) and A-Rod hasn't had much success in the past against Josh Beckett going 1-9 (12 plate appearences) with his one hit being a double. Hopefully Beckett wins this battle today and cools A-Rod down a bit.

It is nice to see that Terry Francona has Alex Cora in the game today - starting at 2nd in place of Dustin Pedroia. Cora's been the hot hand these past couple of games and you know Francona love the veteran Cora. Pedroia I'm sure isn't concerned - he'll get his 400+ at bats this season.

The Yankees start rookies Jeff Karstens today and Chase Wright tomorrow. You have to wonder if the Yankees rotation keeps getting depleted if they will be forced into a panic move like giving Jose Lima a shot. And speaking of Jose Lima.

Red Sox / Yankees - Live Blog

Well I really haven't posted much this week but since I was in Vegas - I'm sure you'll understand.

To make up for the lack of blogging - I'll be live blogging tonight's Red Sox / Yankees game while I do some paperwork and basically putz around my home office. Tonight has Curt Schilling going up against Andy Pettitte and I think if the Yankees are going to win a game in this series that tonight is their best shot since Pettitte is a career 5-2 with a 2.98 ERA in his starts at Fenway.

(6:44) I enjoy Jack Welsh's books but good God is he annoying on NESN. Does he have naked pictures of John Henry or something? I don't know anyone who doesn't think he's plain awful doing those appearances on NESN. Before the series starts here are my two predictions; 1) if the Yankees lose tonight then they get swept and 2) look for Manny Ramirez to have a monster series (and conversely for A-Rod to come up small and the talk about him being Mr. April to start back up in earnest). Somebody please get Jack Welsh off my TV set.

(6:57) Interesting version of the national anthem using Taiko drums. I love the sound of those drums but they always make me think of the Michael Crichton movie Rising Sun where the Japanese were going to take over America. I also think the wearing of the Virginia Tech logo on the shirts and hats of the Red Sox is a very nice tribute. No surprise that Jason Varitek was behind the idea.

(7:14) Imaginary conversation in my head:

Joe Torre: Last week we made the comment that A-Rod comes into the season like a lion but usually goes out like a lamb. Now here to reply is our captain of intangibles, Derek Jeter, with a report update.

Derek Jeter: Thank you Joe. Well, another April is almost over and A-Rod true to form has come in like a lion, but hopefully will not go out like a lamb. However, that’s how A-Rod usually works here in the Big Apple.

But did you know that A-Rod behaves differently in other countries? In Norway, for example, A-Rod comes into the season like a polar bear and goes out like a walrus. Or, take the case of Honduras where A-Rod comes in like a lamb and goes out like a salt marsh harvest mouse.

(7:44) Yankees take a 1-0 lead on a couple of lead-off singles, a bunt and a ground out. The home plate umpire is Randy Marsh. I wonder if he has a son Stan and is from Colorado? Neither the Red Sox or Yankees seem happy with Randy Marsh.

(7:58) NESN has Bob Cousy in to talk during the bottom of the third inning. I love listening to Cousy talk and I'm glad the Red Sox are honoring Red Auerbach by wearing the green uniforms tonight. Remy should have asked Cousy if he grew up as a Yankees fan though since Cousy is from New York City originally.

(8:07) A-Rod starts off the 4th with his 11th HR which is hit into the Monster Seats over the left field wall. So much for wishful thinking that A-Rod would go into the tank this series or go out of April like a salt marsh harvest mouse. Speaking of Monster Seats - I'll be adding the Red Sox blog MonsterSeats.com to my blogroll. The over/under for tonight's game was 9 runs. I thought that was a good bet but I never touch the Red Sox / Yankees games because you never know what's going to happen.

(8:28) Jason Varitek ties the game with a 2-run HR. Varitek has been killing lefties this season hitting .571 so-far and career he was at .361 against Andy Pettitte in particular going into the game. Varitek only has a .241 batting average against the Yankees in his career but it sure does seem he comes up with hits in big situations.

(8:44) A-Rod is on fire! The fastest to 12 HR in MLB history (according to NESN). The Yankees go up 5-2. I give Coco Crisp props for going all-out trying to catch that HR from A-Rod. Conversely - I have to wonder why JD Drew is playing so deep in right. Schilling looks to be tiring and I'd like to change my mind on the chances of this game going under 9 runs. Damn - I only have one beer left in the fridge!

(8:58) Running out to the package store - let me know how many books NESN pimps while I'm gone. (I know that's harsh and that I respect the hell out of Bob Woodruff but what was with the Big Papi autobiography infomercial?)

(9:10) I was feeling bad for being so curt in that last post but then I come back and the first thing I see is the gorgeous Hazel Maye talking about Big Papi's book. Now I think pimp was exactly the right word. Meanwhile - Jason Varitek gets a single and my God-honest first thought was "Now he's just a double and triple away from the cycle." (Hey - it could happen.)

(9:40) Yankees are up 6-2 and I'm about to check the channel guide to see what else is on. Don't get me wrong - even though the Red Sox are losing - I'm very content. I have my cold beer and salted peanuts and what the heck - gunga-lagunga - you can't win them all. I am hoping that whoever is pitching for the Red Sox plunks A-Rod the next time he comes up (I'd even settle for plunking Jeter).

(10:00) I think I'd find it easier to like the smell of Sex Panther cologne than liking the Yankees. The Red Sox climb to within 3 runs on Mike Lowell's single. Fans who have Mariano River on their fantasy teams are happy with what is now a save opportunity while those who took the over in tonight's game are happy with at worst a push. People who took the under are rooting for Rivera to close out the game (even some Red Sox fans). That last bit is why I don't bet on the the teams I root for very often. Conflicts of interest arise and its no longer fun action.

(10:08) Wow! Coco Crisp triples in two runs to tie the score at 6-6! Alex Cora comes up big once again for the second time in two days - singling in Crisp from third! Red Sox lead 7-6.

(10:16) Hideki Okajima comes in to close the 9th inning. Too bad those Taiko drummers aren't still around. It would be great to have them beating those drums between pitches. How cool would that be? Okajima was born on Christmas Day in 1975. Here's hoping he delivers an early Christmas present for Red Sox fans tonight.

(10:29) Okajima saves the game! The Red Sox win. Thaaaaaaaaaaaaaa Red Sox win!

Pavano to Start Opening Day?

I don't believe in omens but if I did - I'd have to say that for the Yankees having to use Carl Pavano as the Opening Day starter would be the equivalent of a black cat walking under a ladder to break a mirror.

If Pavano performs poorly (and he has had control issues this spring - 5.84 ERA and a 7 walks to 5 K's ratio) - then the booing could be unmerciless at Yankee Stadium. Pavano seems like a fragile type to begin with. I'm not sure why Joe Torre would put the added pressure of being the Opening Day starter on Pavano's shoulders. I guess maybe the idea is either he swims or he sinks and the earlier to find out - the better.

The Yankees always have problems with the Devil Rays and as a Red Sox fan I'm hoping this becomes a complete disaster of a start for Pavano and the Yankees. So let it be written - so let it be done.

AL East Comparison

Today I'll be taking a look at the three contenders for the AL East title (Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays) and see how they match up position-wise. On another day - I'll do a comparison of their pitching.

I'm going to give teams a 3 if they have best player at a position, a 2 if they have the second best player and a 1 if they have the third best player. At the end - I'll add up the totals and see which team comes out on top. Note: there will probably be some ties which I'll handle as I see fit.

Catcher: Jorge Posada is coming off a great year (23 HR 93 RBI) and is in his contract year but is going to be 36-years old this season. Jason Varitek is a year younger than Posada but is coming off an awful year and many Red Sox fans are afraid that he's over the hill. Greg Zaun is actually the oldest of the bunch and he's known as a back-up not as a starter. Overall I think Varitek will have a bounceback year but his intangibles behind the plate aren't enough to overtake Posada for the top spot.

Yankees - 3; Red Sox - 2; Blue Jays - 1

1st Base: Toronto has Lyle Overbay who is a solid hitter (.312 BA / 22 HR / 93 RBI). The Red Sox have K-Y - Kevin Youkilis who is also a solid hitter but to a lesser degree than Overbay (Youkilis hit .279 with a .381 OBP in 2006). The Yankees have a three-headed monster going at first with Doug Mientkiewicz, Andy Phillips and Josh Phelps battling for the starting job. The ranking here is pretty clear.

Blue Jays - 3; Red Sox - 2; Yankees - 1

2nd Base: The Red Sox are starting rookie Dustin Pedroia. The Yankees are starting 25-year old future batting champion Robinson Cano at 2nd. The Blue Jays are also starting a 25-year old 2nd baseman in Aaron Hill. The rankings at 2nd are also pretty clear-cut.

Yankees - 3; Blue Jays - 2; Red Sox - 1

Shortstop: Many people thought that Derek Jeter should have been the MVP last year (not me though). Julio Lugo should be a huge addition to the Red Sox but he's not in Jeter's class. Meanwhile it looks like Toronto is serious about starting Royce Clayton. Maybe the easiest rankings yet.

Yankees - 3; Red Sox -2; Blue Jays - 1

3rd Base: Third base is tougher to guage than you may think. Sure Alex Rodriguez is a great player and a future Hall of Famer but Troy Glaus may have more power at 3rd and Mike Lowell may be the better glove at 3rd. I think A-Rod gets the nod as the best 3rd baseman of the bunch but I'm going to call it a tie between Glaus (who is also a very good glove) and Lowell based mostly on Glaus's injury history. If it was guaranteed that Glaus would reach 500 AB this year - then I would gve him the nod for second place.

Yankees - 3; Blue Jays - 1.5; Red Sox - 1.5

Left Field: Manny Ramirez is a Hall of Famer and people don't appreciate how well he defends the Green Monster when at home in Fenway. Hideki Matsui may be a better defender but he's not close to Manny's power with the bat. Reed Johnson will be 31-years old this year and it looks like he'll never hit 20 HR in a season.

Red Sox - 3; Yankees - 2; Blue Jays - 1

Center Field: Vernon Wells is among the elite center fielders in baseball. Yankee Stadium was made for Johnny Damon's lefty swing. Coco Crisp has a lot of questions facing him this season after an injury plagued 2006.

Blue Jays - 3; Yankees - 2; Red Sox - 1

Right Field: For all the hype of Bobby Abreu as a hitter - he still only hit 15 HR last year even though he played his home games in two very lefty friendly hitters parks. Alex Rios also didn't manage 20 HR last year (just 17) for Toronto. JD Drew did hit 20 HR last year even though he played half his games in the cavernous Chavez Ravine. My gut tells me to give the edge to Drew in this category because he may be the best all-around player but instead I'm going to call it a draw and award 2 points to each player.

Red Sox - 2; Yankees - 2; Blue Jays - 2

DH: David Ortiz is the clear leader here but I think Jason Giambi and Frank Thomas are a draw.

Red Sox - 3; Yankees - 1.5; Blue Jays - 1.5

So the totals for the position starters are:

Yankees - 20.5 points
Red Sox - 17.5 points
Blue Jays - 16 points

You can see how closely the talent matches up for these three teams. The position players are so close that it will probably come down to pitching which we will look at shortly.