Roger Clemens

The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry. - Robert Burns

So Roger Clemens has signed with the Yankees. You may be surprised how little this bothers Red Sox fans. I'm not saying that I wouldn't have been happy to have seen Roger sign with the Sox and I don't deny that his signing makes the Yankees a better team. I'm just saying that his actual impact when all is said is done will probably be much less than what some talking heads are suggesting now.

The plan is for Roger to come into the Bronx, help right the pitching staff, stay healthy and allow the Yankees to win another World Championship. That's' the plan according to most of the talking heads and to the principles on the Yankee side as well. A bit ambitious wouldn't you say?

I'd look for Clemens to have about a 4.50 ERA and average about 5-6 innings per start. Not much more than that give or take. To be crass - last year Corey Lidle went 4-3 with a 5.07 ERA in 9 starts for the Yankees. I'd look for Clemens to double those numbers and not much more.

This isn't a jilted Red Sox fan talking - its a realist. Last year Clemens only had 19 starts for the Astros. Clemens and his agent both say they will have the same time table as last year. I take that to be the same number of starts. Clemens is 45-years old and hamstring injuries and back problems are specters that will haunt his every jog and every pitch for the Yankees. At the very least - I'd expect his fastball to lose 1-2 mph (and that's a very dangerous thing in the DH world of the AL).

One good thing that comes of this is the fact that with this slap in the face of the Red Sox brass by Clemens - it is now certain that the Red Sox will never retire Clemens' number 21. They will invoke that "must retire as a member of the Red Sox clause" which has been so helpful in keeping Wade Boggs' number from being retired. Hey Clemens is only tied for the Red Sox record for wins at 192. The man he's tied with - Cy Young - doesn't have his number retired either.

Roger Clemens will be going into the Hall of Fame but his plaque will have a Red Sox hat on it. The Yankees won't retire his number - the only two pitchers numbers retired by the Yankees are Whitey Ford's 16 and Ron Guidry's 49. They won't be retiring Roger's number for his paltry 5 plus seasons. The Astros certainly won't be retiring his number now either.

Now if the Red Sox really wanted to be petty - they would give his 21 to a September call up. And if the Astros wanted to be petty - they could release Clemens' son Koby and thus force the Yankees to use up a slot in their farm system.

If Roger had come to the Red Sox even in the worst case his 45-year old body could have won that one game to break that tie with Cy Young. Now he's signed with the Yankees. Best case scenario Roger stays healthy and wins 13 games to tie Kid Nichols for 7th place on the all-time wins list or maybe even 15 wins to tie Warren Spahn (who was twice the man Clemens could ever dream of being). And maybe all those wins help the Yankees win a Championship. That's the current plan but the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.