State of the Red Sox

The Red Sox aren't good (so far) this season. The Globe's Chad Finn argues that there isn't much that GM Ben Cherington could have done this off-season to have really made a difference. His article has me conflicted. On the one hand I prescribe to Bill Simmons' theory that a team that wins a championship should get a 5-year grace/get out of jail free period from its fans - so I'm not complaining. On the other hand there was a move Ben Cherington made last year that I disagreed with and think now we are seeing the issues from that move - so don't tell me that there was nothing Cherington could have done to avoid the current malaise.

Let's look at a Player Comparison.

2014 Player Comparison:
Player A - 21 G/ 91 AB/ 1 HR/ 10 RBI/ .242 BA/ .276 OBP/ .352 SLG/ .627 OPS
Player B - 54 G/ 210 AB/ 9 HR/ 32 RBI/ .267 BA/ .291 OBP/  .448 SLG/ .739 OPS

Player B certainly would have been helpful and an upgrade over what the Red Sox currently have going on in the outfield. But the thing is Player A was so helpful in the Red Sox winning the World Series - could Player B have made a similar or better contribution?

2013 Player Comparison:
Player A - 122 G/ 477 AB/ 15 HR/ 61 RBI/ .292 BA/ .351 OBP/ .451 SLG/ .801 OPS
Player B - 144 G/ 606 AB/ 17 HR/ 84 RBI/ .304 BA/ .334 OBP/ .465 SLG/ .800 OPS

So Player A is Shane Victorino and Player B is Torii Hunter. Hunter is every bit as good - or better than Victorino both at the plate and in the field and it should be mentioned in the clubhouse. The Red Sox could have had Torii Hunter for similar money but fewer years than what they gave Victorino. That was a move Cherington didn't make but should have.

But I'm not complaining because Boston won the World Series last year with Shane Victorino in right field.

Red Sox 2013 Roster

Red Sox have a big off-season facing them. Here's my position by position breakdown of what I'd suggest GM Ben Cherington should do regarding the every day players. In another post I'll make my suggestions regarding the pitching staff.

C - the Red Sox for better or worse are set with Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Ryan Lavarnway. Everyone hopes to get much more offense out of this duo than we saw in 2012. Even though Salty hit 25 HR - his overall batting performance leaves room for much improvement. Many are hoping that Lavarnway gets close to his minor league batting performance so that he can be the catcher of the future (say 2014).

1B - My preference for first base next year would be for the Red Sox to trade for Victor Martinez. I'm guessing that Detroit would be happy to shed the final two years of Victor's contract ($13 million in 2013 and $12 million in 2014) - so he would cost much in terms of prospects. Martinez has shown he can thrive in Boston both on the field (.322 career batting average at Fenway) and off (media favorite). He'd also be both a big clubhouse presence with the stature to stand up to anyone and also would be insurance at the catcher position if either Salty or Lavarnway have issues.

2B - Dustin Pedroia

SS - This is a weak spot for the Red Sox. What I'd suggest to turn this into a strength is to trade fan pariah John Lackey to Texas for Elvis Andrus. Jon Heyman has reported that the Rangers have no plans to trade Andrus this winter which normally would mean Andrus should have his bags packed. Andrus has two years left on his contract for a reasonable $11 million but the problem is in Texas he's blocking super prospect Jurikson Profar. I'd even throw in Jose Iglesias to make this deal happen.

3B - Will Middlebrooks

LF - The first item of business for Ben Cherington should be wrapping up Cody Ross on a multi-year deal (say 3-years $18 million). I say first item of business because with Ross in the fold then that gives them a little more leverage over David Ortiz as Ross could be made DH. Ortiz should be the second item of business. I will admit that Ross's home / road splits this season concerns me (.921 OPS at Fenway but just .684 OPS on road in 2012).

CF - Let Jacoby Ellsbury play the year and go to free agency. Guessing he will have a big year and be overpaid by someone else. All that is important is that he has a big 2013 first.

RF - Another problem spot for the Red Sox. Do the Sox go with existing options Ryan Kalish or maybe Che-Hsuan Lin? Or do they go for an outside option. Supposedly the Indians would be open to trading Shin-Soo Choo. That would be perfect. I'd even more in favor of giving Choo a long term deal than I would be for extending Ellsbury.

DH - David Ortiz. Just give the man a 2-year $22 million deal with some incentives for Ortiz to up the possible value of the contract.

If the Red Sox were to make these suggested moves they would field very formidable team in 2012. So llet it be written - so let it be done!

The Red Sox Mess

People are looking to pin the blame for the Red Sox organization being a mess. Does the blame lie with players like Josh Beckett who is viewed as over-paid, under-productive and out of shape? Is it Bobby Valentine whose managerial moves at times are questionable at best and whose personality really rubs many the wrong way? Is it first year GM Ben Cherington who hasn't made enough moves to right the ship? Is it ownership who seem too distracted by new shiny things like Liverpool soccer (LFC) to see the forest through the trees? For anyone paying attention the answer is clear - all of the above!

I get into details after the break. Be sure to read it all because I really buried the lede.

Red Sox Should be Sellers

In 1990 the Red Sox made  a trade with the Astros sending an infielder for a bullpen guy. The infielder was Jeff Bagwell and the bullpen guy was Larry Andersen who ended up pitching 15 games for the Red Sox. This year the Red Sox made another trade with the Astros where they send an infielder for a bullpen guy. The infielder was Jed Lowrie and the bullpen guy was Mark Melancon who has also pitched in 15 games for the Red Sox. Here's how those 15 games compare:

Andersen - 0-0 / 1.23 ERA / 22 IP / 1 Save / 25 K / 3 BB
Melancon - 0-2 / 7.04 ERA / 15 IP / 0 Save / 13 K / 4 BB

I'm not seriously comparing these two trades because the Bagwell trade was one of the biggest heists in baseball history (although I will point out that Bagwell only had 15 HR in his first full season with Houston while Lowrie already had 14). The real reason I bring this up is because the people who defend the trade from the Red Sox perspective always fire back with "well how could you project Lowrie being healthy for a full season"? These are the same people who will change their rationalization when it comes to the trade for Andrew Bailey who had an injury history just as bad as Lowrie's. Oh and the guy the Sox traded for Bailey - Josh Reddick - now has 20 HR for the A's. Meanwhile Bailey hasn't pitched a game for Boston.

The reason I bring up those trades is because I think the Red Sox should be sellers at the trade deadline but as those trades above show - I'm not sure if I have confidence with Ben Cherington's ability to make a good deal. And the Catch-22 is if the Red Sox become sellers then that gives Bobby Valentine an excuse for a poor record (and I despise Valentine). Part of me wants to keep this team together so that they could be humbled by a bad season. The realistic part of me says that these players won't be humbled though as much as exposed as petulant spoiled children (which would just made them even more unlikable than they already are).

OK - who to trade?

I'd start by trading Josh Beckett to the Rangers for a top prospect. Beckett has 2-years left on his contract and Texas needs to win now. Beckett would most likely waive his 10/5 rights for Texas. If you trade Beckett it also gives you payroll flexibility going forward for 2013 and 2014.


Kelly Shoppach could bring a minor prospect and the Sox could promote Ryan Lavarnway who fans want to see anyway. Promote Jose Iglesias to be the shortstop, trade Nick Punto and make Mike Aviles the utility guy. Ryan Sweeney - trade him.  I wouldn't trade Jacoby Ellsbury at the trade deadline though.


You'll get more for Ellsbury in the offseason.

Red Sox Magic Number - 109

The Red Sox magic number for this season is now 109. When I hear the number 109 - I think of JFK and his PT 109. However this Red Sox team bears no resemblance of to heroic tales of WWII and certainly no resemblance to JFK who was much more a good Scotch and Cuban cigars guy than a fried chicken and Bud Light fan.

No this Red Sox team is much closer to another 109 - that's the number of career wins Carl Pavano will have with his next victory. This team certainly has a Carl Pavano feel to it. A team with a connection to those great Red Sox teams from a few years ago (Pavano was traded for Pedro Martinez). A team that should have great potential but inexplicably doesn't meet that potential. A team that can't seem to shake a better than .500 record (Pavano's career winning percentage is .502). A team that can't shake injuries. And a team that honestly isn't that likable.

I have to say that for the past few days I've been doing "what could have been" scenarios in my head. I've been thinking that a good general manager should adopt the physicians creed of "first do no harm." I've also been wondering if Ben Cherington and the team would have been better off if he had done nothing at all.

Let's look at some of the moves:

- December 2011 - Sox trade Jed Lowrie to Astros for Mark Melancon. They then also sign utility man Nick Punto. Lowrie has 12 HR and an OPS of .920 this season (only David Ortiz has comparable numbers on the Red Sox) while Mike Aviles has an OPS of just .708 and an OPS+ of just 89 (100 is average for a hitter). Melancon was viewed as a set-up guy but the Red Sox had a great set-up guy in Daniel Bard. So the Red Sox weaken themselves at short and tried to move Bard to starter - how's that worked out? Plus if Lowrie isn't traded then Aviles fills the role Punto has (and does a better job at it).

- December 2011 - Sox trade Josh Reddick to Oakland for Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney. So far Reddick has 14 HR which would be leading the Red Sox while Bailey hasn't pitched an inning for the Red Sox because the often injured pitcher is injured.

- April 2012 - Sox trade for Marlon Byrd who was awful and released in less than 2 months. The Red Sox needed a centerfielder but had the talented Che-Hsuan Lin at Pawtucket. Why not reward the talented youngster with a call-up? It would have been much better for the team and much better for the bottom line.

I won't even get into the Marco Scutaro salary dump trade. The point I guess is that the Red Sox have to move Kevin Youkilis soon and I hope when they do that they improve the team but first I hope that they do no harm.

Because rooting for this team is getting to be like rooting for Carl Pavano.

Linky Links

Stuff I found interesting and thought I'd share.

Oh my God! Kuwait mistakenly plays Borat spoof anthem of Kazakhstan at Gold Medal ceremony

Is there a power struggle emerging between Boston GM and Bobby Valentine? Bobby V really isn't giving me the warm and fuzzy.

Obamacare for Grandma. Going to be a very interesting election.  

Speaking of Obama - you have to watch the video at the end of this article. If Bush had been doing this we would never hear the end of it.

 Stephen Fry and Sir Ian McKellen pay to save The Hobbit pub from trademark trolls