State of the Red Sox

The Red Sox aren't good (so far) this season. The Globe's Chad Finn argues that there isn't much that GM Ben Cherington could have done this off-season to have really made a difference. His article has me conflicted. On the one hand I prescribe to Bill Simmons' theory that a team that wins a championship should get a 5-year grace/get out of jail free period from its fans - so I'm not complaining. On the other hand there was a move Ben Cherington made last year that I disagreed with and think now we are seeing the issues from that move - so don't tell me that there was nothing Cherington could have done to avoid the current malaise.

Let's look at a Player Comparison.

2014 Player Comparison:
Player A - 21 G/ 91 AB/ 1 HR/ 10 RBI/ .242 BA/ .276 OBP/ .352 SLG/ .627 OPS
Player B - 54 G/ 210 AB/ 9 HR/ 32 RBI/ .267 BA/ .291 OBP/  .448 SLG/ .739 OPS

Player B certainly would have been helpful and an upgrade over what the Red Sox currently have going on in the outfield. But the thing is Player A was so helpful in the Red Sox winning the World Series - could Player B have made a similar or better contribution?

2013 Player Comparison:
Player A - 122 G/ 477 AB/ 15 HR/ 61 RBI/ .292 BA/ .351 OBP/ .451 SLG/ .801 OPS
Player B - 144 G/ 606 AB/ 17 HR/ 84 RBI/ .304 BA/ .334 OBP/ .465 SLG/ .800 OPS

So Player A is Shane Victorino and Player B is Torii Hunter. Hunter is every bit as good - or better than Victorino both at the plate and in the field and it should be mentioned in the clubhouse. The Red Sox could have had Torii Hunter for similar money but fewer years than what they gave Victorino. That was a move Cherington didn't make but should have.

But I'm not complaining because Boston won the World Series last year with Shane Victorino in right field.

Thoughts on Red Sox Moves at Winter Meetings

Here are my thoughts regarding the roster moves the Boston Red Sox have made regarding the Winter meetings:

1. I'm a little ambivalent regarding signing Mike Napoli. Three-years $39 million seems a bit much but I've decided to look at the bright side of this signing - Napoli will give the Red Sox about the same OPS in 2013 that the Yankees will get out of Mark Teixeira but at half the price.
2. I hate the Shane Victorino signing. Hate it. 100% agree with Kirk Minihane that it was a mistake. Let me ask you two questions - how is Victorino better than Torii Hunter who got two-years $26 million from the Tigers? The Red Sox would have been so much better off giving Hunter two-years and $30 million than signing Victorino. Much better off. Secondly - how is Victorino even an upgrade over Ryan Kalish? Hate this move.
3. David Ortiz has to be wondering WTF? The Red Sox squeeze Ortiz trying to avoid giving him a multi-year deal and then turn around and sign Napoli and Victorino to more years and the same per year salaries? The optics are bad by management.
4. The Red Sox should have done more to sign Dan Haren. Maybe a two-year $26 million deal would have worked. The money they spent on Victorino would have been much better used on Haren in my opinion. Opportunity missed here.

If the Red Sox had signed Torii Hunter and Dan Haren - I'd be pretty excited about the Sox right now. Instead they signed Napoli and Victorino and I'm honestly left scratching my head.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

Opening Day at Fenway today and the boys will get their rings and the banner will be raised. Praise them with great praise. Yankees suck... Torii Hunter looks like a good investment for the Angels. Last night he hit 2 HR with the second being a game winning grand slam... Speaking of last night's Angels game - between closer Joe Borowski of the Indians and Frankie Rodriguez of the Angels 7 runs were given up in less than one combined inning (both closers only managed one out). That's some end of game gasoline... The Boston Symphony Orchestra will be doing the National Anthem and providing general class atmosphere. I hope to God that the Cowsills are not part of Opening Day at Fenway. Or any future games at Fenway for that matter... Mark Reynolds of the Diamondbacks is my darkhorse candidate for NL MVP. I've said it before but if he hits 30 HR and drives in 100 then the Diamondbacks will be representing the NL in the World Series... As great as Tom Seaver was - Tom Glavine has a chance to pass him in wins this season (Seaver has 311 wins to Glavine's 303). What's impressive is the fact that Glavine has accumulated those 303 wins in much fewer innings (Seaver ended up pitching 4782 innings to Glavine's 4361 and counting). I guess that's really a result of pitching in two different eras. Seaver had 231 career complete games compared to 56 for Glavine (and Glavine was top 10 in complete games 8 times in his career). Pitchers just don't finish games like they used to. And no - I'm not implying in any way that Glavine was as good as Seaver. I do think that Glavine gets short shrift in terms of recognition though... On this day in 1974 - Hank Aaron hit HR # 715 to break Babe Ruth's record...

Torii Hunter and the Centerfield Market

Torii Hunter was signed to a 5-year $90 million contract yesterday that has sent shock waves through the market for centerfielders.

The Angels had agreed to a $50 million, five-year deal with [Gary] Matthews last November, so Hunter was surprised they were even interested in him.

"They shocked me. I didn't think they needed a center fielder," Hunter said. "They shocked the world."

The Hunter signing has a number of implications and ramifications.

First - this signing will make Aaron Rowand a very rich man. There are a number of GM's out there who have cash on hand and who need to make a splash in the offseason to justify their job to the fans. I would look for Rowand to get some "Hunter-like" offers from the White Sox, Dodgers and Phillies.

Second - the team who misses out on Rowand may be forced into overpaying for Andruw Jones (who is surprisingly 3rd on the centerfielder wish list for most teams). I have to wonder if the Braves are nervous about offering Jones arbitration because it may become a Greg Maddux-like situation from a couple of years ago where they thought Maddux was leaving as a free agent but when he didn't get any big multi-year offers he ended up taking the arbitration from the Braves and breaking their piggy bank (forcing them to trade Kevin Millwod to the Phillies in a salary dump). It should be recalled that Scott Boras was Maddux's agent and is also Andruw Jones' agent. Boras must be praying that the Phillies or Dodgers sign Rowand because I have to think that Kenny Williams and the White Sox are Boras' big chance to get Jones a mega contract.

I don't think the Dodgers or Phillies will be players for Andruw Jones because he has historically done awful at Dodger Stadium (.735 OPS in 36 games) and at Citizen's Bank Park (.638 OPS in 35 games).

Third - once Rowand lands somewhere - teams that still need a centerfielder will be knocking on the Red Sox door to make a deal for Coco Crisp. Besides the teams mentioned above - you will also have the Rangers, Twins and a couple other teams. The Red Sox had to give up a top prospect (Andy Marte) to get Coco - so I'd look for them to get one back in return.

Forth - the Angels have been very active this offseason (acquiring Jon Garland and now signing Hunter) and I don't think they are done. Many people put them as the front-runners for Miguel Cabrera (or Miguel Tejada as a Plan B). The Angels activity already will send some teams into a tizzy - for instance I would not be surprised to see the Dodgers make a very big push on Aaron Rowand to get the back pages back from their metropolitan rivals the Angels. Also - with the "win it now" approach by the Angels many have speculated will put the A's into a rebuilding and trading mode. I don't see that happening. If the A's can keep Rich Harden, Dan Haren and Joe Blanton healthy then they can compete with anyone. The A's have a reasonable payroll and their key players are signed at reasonable terms. I don't see them being sellers.