Linky Links

Stuff I found interesting or amusing and thought I'd share.

- Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones elected to Cooperstown.

- The man who was almost chosen by FDR for VP instead of Harry Truman. Jimmy Byrnes has been mostly forgotten by history,

- The 3x5 card - a tool of excellence. (HT Cultural Offering)

- Congress imposes Public Utility rules on UnitedHealth, CVS, and Cigna.

Is Andruw Jones a Hall of Famer?

Peter Gammons' site asked the question a couple of days ago - is Andruw Jones a Hall of Famer? The article mentions many of Jones accomplishments and in the course of the article named 13 different players in comparison to Andruw Jones. Two players jump out at me when thinking about the question, "Is Andruw Jones a Hall of Famer"? Neither of the players I thought of were mentioned in the article linked above.

The first player is Dwight Evans who as great as Jones was in centerfield - Dewey was that great in right. You had 10 Gold Gloves for Jones and 8 for Evans. Jones had 434 career HR to Evans' 385 but Evans had 540 more total bases than Andruw and his OPS+ of 127 is much more Hall of Fame worthy than Jones 111 OPS+ mark. WAR? Evans had a career mark of 66.9 (124th best all-time) to Jones' 62.8 (152nd all-time). How many people are still asking if Evans is a Hall of Famer?

The second player also played centerfield for the Braves - Dale Murphy. He was a 5-time Gold Glover and winner of back-to-back NL MVP Awards. According to Baseball-reference.com the most similar player to Dale Murphy? Andruw Jones.

So to answer the question - is Andruw Jones a Hall of Famer? The answer is no. And neither is Dale Murphy or Dwight Evans. For the record though - I am a fan of all three players.

Player Comparison

Here's a player comparison I was curious about.

Player A: .254 BA/ .337 OBP/ .486 SLG/ .823 OPS/ 111 OPS+
Player B: .303 BA/ .401 OBP/ .529 SLG/ .930 OPS/ 141 OPS+

How about career totals?

Player A: 1204 R/ 434 HR/ 1289 RBI/ 3690 TB
Player B: 1619 R/ 468 HR/ 1623 RBI/ 4755 TB

Obviously Player B was the better hitter but Player A was a 10-time Gold Glove Player. Player B is Chipper Jones who will be elected into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot while Player A is Andruw Jones who will probably receive the Dwight Evans treatment from Hall voters.

Linky Links

Stuff I found interesting and thought I'd share.

FX renews "Archer." Hooray!

Is Andruw Jones a Hall of Famer? I'm on the fence

What was Ryan Braun guilty of? He was guilty of this!

Is the girl in the background Mr. Bean's daughter? 

Tom Izzo is an amazing 23-1-1 against the spread in 2nd half lines this season 

Pat Forde with a very interesting look at Larry Eustachy's rise from the ashes of alcoholism

The Theory of (almost) Everything!

Wilt Chamberlain, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Andre the Giant on the set of Conan. Awesome!

Morning Links

Some stuff I found interesting.

- Interesting take on the Andruw Jones signing.

- Heh heh - I knew it! May be NSFW.

- Jason Stark has a good wrap-up of the winter meetings

- Pop-up books

Andruw Jones

Reportedly Andruw Jones will be signing a 2-year $36.2 million contract with the Dodgers.

What gives me pause about this deal is the fact that over his career Jones has hit just .233 at Dodger Stadium with a pretty lousy .735 OPS (36 games and 133 at bats). He has hit 6 HR there which projected over a full season of 250 home at-bats would be an anemic 11 HR in Dodger Stadium for 2008. And Jones is being trumpeted as a power hitter? Yes - I know - small sample size. But for $18 million a year wouldn't you want the indicators pointing to something better?

This is a classic "on one hand and on the other" deal:

- One one hand - the deal is only for 2-years
- On the other hand - the deal pays Jones an average of $18 million a year! For a guy who only hit 26 HR last year and will be 31-years old next year
- On one hand - this deal now frees the Dodgers up to include either Juan Pierre, Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp in a trade for a top pitcher like Johan Santana or Eric Bedard
- On the other hand - pitching is not the problem for the Dodgers and this deal really doesn't give them the big bat to put them over the top.
- On one hand - this is a clear loss for uber-agent Scott Boras who was seeking a 7-year deal at $20 million a year
- On the other hand - Boras got a guy who many consider fat and lazy $18 million a year for the next two years. That's a lot of donuts.

Maybe the people most happy with this move are the Dodgers pitchers who will now have a number of mistake pitches erased by Jones' Gold Glove in center.

Torii Hunter and the Centerfield Market

Torii Hunter was signed to a 5-year $90 million contract yesterday that has sent shock waves through the market for centerfielders.

The Angels had agreed to a $50 million, five-year deal with [Gary] Matthews last November, so Hunter was surprised they were even interested in him.

"They shocked me. I didn't think they needed a center fielder," Hunter said. "They shocked the world."

The Hunter signing has a number of implications and ramifications.

First - this signing will make Aaron Rowand a very rich man. There are a number of GM's out there who have cash on hand and who need to make a splash in the offseason to justify their job to the fans. I would look for Rowand to get some "Hunter-like" offers from the White Sox, Dodgers and Phillies.

Second - the team who misses out on Rowand may be forced into overpaying for Andruw Jones (who is surprisingly 3rd on the centerfielder wish list for most teams). I have to wonder if the Braves are nervous about offering Jones arbitration because it may become a Greg Maddux-like situation from a couple of years ago where they thought Maddux was leaving as a free agent but when he didn't get any big multi-year offers he ended up taking the arbitration from the Braves and breaking their piggy bank (forcing them to trade Kevin Millwod to the Phillies in a salary dump). It should be recalled that Scott Boras was Maddux's agent and is also Andruw Jones' agent. Boras must be praying that the Phillies or Dodgers sign Rowand because I have to think that Kenny Williams and the White Sox are Boras' big chance to get Jones a mega contract.

I don't think the Dodgers or Phillies will be players for Andruw Jones because he has historically done awful at Dodger Stadium (.735 OPS in 36 games) and at Citizen's Bank Park (.638 OPS in 35 games).

Third - once Rowand lands somewhere - teams that still need a centerfielder will be knocking on the Red Sox door to make a deal for Coco Crisp. Besides the teams mentioned above - you will also have the Rangers, Twins and a couple other teams. The Red Sox had to give up a top prospect (Andy Marte) to get Coco - so I'd look for them to get one back in return.

Forth - the Angels have been very active this offseason (acquiring Jon Garland and now signing Hunter) and I don't think they are done. Many people put them as the front-runners for Miguel Cabrera (or Miguel Tejada as a Plan B). The Angels activity already will send some teams into a tizzy - for instance I would not be surprised to see the Dodgers make a very big push on Aaron Rowand to get the back pages back from their metropolitan rivals the Angels. Also - with the "win it now" approach by the Angels many have speculated will put the A's into a rebuilding and trading mode. I don't see that happening. If the A's can keep Rich Harden, Dan Haren and Joe Blanton healthy then they can compete with anyone. The A's have a reasonable payroll and their key players are signed at reasonable terms. I don't see them being sellers.

Aaron Rowand

Happy 30th birthday to Phillies centerfielder Aaron Rowand.

Roward is a scrappy (I think its a rule that you have to call him that) player who gives it his all when he's on the field. Because of his effort - Rowand is a fan favorite in Chicago and in Philadelphia. However, because Rowand goes all-out he is prone to injury (tossing your body around with abandon tends to do that). Rowand is also a free-agent at the end of the season.

This offseason's Hot Stove "action" will be dominated with talk about centerfielders. You have Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter and Aaron Rowand topping the bill. Since today is Rowand's birthday - I wanted to take a moment to talk about him.

Baseball-Reference.com has Mike Lamb, Milton Bradley and Eric Byrnes as the three most similar batters to Rowand. That's not exactly Hall of Fame company. Me - I like to think of Rowand as a poor man's Johnny Damon and I mean that with no disrespect to either player.

The players are similar in that they both are excellent fielders who play with abandon but are tough enough to play through the dings that come with throwing your body around trying to win games for the team. They both have some pop in their bats (both players have hit 20 or more HR twice) and they both get on base at a similar clip (.343 career OBP for Rowand vs a .353 career OBP for Damon). I would give the base stealing edge to Damon and the outfield arm edge to Rowand (there are very few outfielders with a worse arm than Damon).

Damon signed a 4-year $52 million deal with the Yankees in 2006. Johnny Damon was 32-years old at the time. Rowand will be 30-years old when he signs his big free-agent contract but unlike Damon - Rowand won't have either the Yankees or Red Sox bidding for his services. I can see Rowand getting a contract in the 4-year $40 million range and I would not be surprised to see him re-sign with either the Phillies or White Sox. The age difference means that the team that signs Rowand will probably get full value for their contract whereas the Yankees will be looking to eat parts of or most of the final two years of Damon's contract. In fact - between the Phillies and White Sox - I would not be surprised if the Yankees propose a trade to the team that loses out on Rowand to take Damon at a discount for the 2008 and 2009 seasons.

Remember - if the Yankees trade Damon (and to do that - they will have to eat about 50% of the contract) - they are freed up to sign Andruw Jones to replace A-Rod's HR in the line-up if A-Rod takes a walk as expected.

Its going to be an interesting offseason.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

The Dodgers brought up 3rd baseman Andy LaRoche, brother of Pirates 1st baseman Adam LaRoche, and Andy has hit in all three games since the call-up. LaRoche could be a good candidate for the NL ROY if he keeps this up (although Josh Hamilton will be a big sentimental favorite this year). Andy and Adam's father is Dave LaRoche who pitched for 14 big-league seasons and is currently the pitching coach for the New Hampshire Fishercats (the AA affiliate for the Blue Jays)... Maybe the person happiest to see Bobby Abreu struggling for the Yankees (.258 BA with just 1 HR) is Andruw Jones. If the Yankees pick up Abreu's option for 2008 - then all three outfield spots for the Yankees are tied up and the Yankees would be out of the bidding for the free agent to be Jones. However, at his current production level - why would the Yankees ever pick up the $16 million option?... Ichiro is now on pace for just 174 hits which would break his string of six straight 200-hit seasons... Only Gary Sheffield (6th pick) and Roberto Hernandez (picked 16th) remain from the class of players drafted in the first round of the 1986 MLB draft. That draft was noteable because all of the top 6 picks actually had productive MLB careers (normally the top picks in the MLB draft are crapshoots). Greg Swindell (123 wins) was picked 2nd by the Indians, Matt Williams (378 HR) was picked 3rd by the Giants, Kevin Brown (211 wins) was picked 4th by the Rangers, and Kent Merker (17-year career) was picked 5th by the Braves. Of the top 6 picks - maybe the least successful was the very first pick - Jeff King - who was picked by the Pirates. But even King had three straight seasons of 20+ HR and 90+ RBI in a career that lasted 11 seasons... Jason Varitek raised his batting average 34 points last night from .250 to .284 with his 4-4 performance against the Blue Jays...