Is Andruw Jones a Hall of Famer?

Peter Gammons' site asked the question a couple of days ago - is Andruw Jones a Hall of Famer? The article mentions many of Jones accomplishments and in the course of the article named 13 different players in comparison to Andruw Jones. Two players jump out at me when thinking about the question, "Is Andruw Jones a Hall of Famer"? Neither of the players I thought of were mentioned in the article linked above.

The first player is Dwight Evans who as great as Jones was in centerfield - Dewey was that great in right. You had 10 Gold Gloves for Jones and 8 for Evans. Jones had 434 career HR to Evans' 385 but Evans had 540 more total bases than Andruw and his OPS+ of 127 is much more Hall of Fame worthy than Jones 111 OPS+ mark. WAR? Evans had a career mark of 66.9 (124th best all-time) to Jones' 62.8 (152nd all-time). How many people are still asking if Evans is a Hall of Famer?

The second player also played centerfield for the Braves - Dale Murphy. He was a 5-time Gold Glover and winner of back-to-back NL MVP Awards. According to Baseball-reference.com the most similar player to Dale Murphy? Andruw Jones.

So to answer the question - is Andruw Jones a Hall of Famer? The answer is no. And neither is Dale Murphy or Dwight Evans. For the record though - I am a fan of all three players.

Steroids

Here's a player comparison I find interesting:

Player A: 3584 AB / 176 HR / 3 Gold Gloves / 2 MVP's
Player B: 3180 AB / 164 HR / 2 Gold Gloves / 2 MVP's

These players played the same position and seem pretty even - don't they? Player A had more HR but Player B was hitting HR at a better rate (1 HR / 19.39 AB vs 1 HR / 20.36 AB). Player A is Barry Bonds through his age 27 season (1992) and Player B is Dale Murphy through his age 27 season (1983). The next year - each player would win his league's HR title but Murphy would accomplish it by hitting exactly the same number of HR (36) as he hit the year before. Bonds on the other hand had a huge statistical jump from a career best of 34 to a league leading 46 HR (a better than 33% increase) to win his first HR title.

Nobody but Bonds really knows when he started using steroids but with the big jump in HR from 1992 to 1993 - is it really that big a leap to think that could have been when it happened? The reason I bring this up is because I'm sick of Bonds apologists saying that Bonds was a Hall of Fame player before he started using steroids. Bullshit! Most likely Barry Bonds was no better than Dale Murphy and Dale Murphy is not in the Hall of Fame (thanks in large part to having his career skewered by comparisons to cheating players like Barry Bonds).

What if Dale Murphy took steroids after 1983 and his next season's HR total jumped to 46? Most likely he would have won his 3rd straight MVP and his Hall of Fame selection would have been ensured.

One final point of note - it was mentioned to me recently that the only two players to win back-to-back MVP's and not be in the Hall of Fame are Dale Murphy and Roger Maris. A fact I find very relevant when discussing the forgotten victims of the steroids era.

Player Comparison

Let's compare two sluggers and how they did in the season where they were 31-years old:

Player A - 44 HR/ 105 RBI/ .295 BA/ .417 OBP/ .580 SLG/ .997 OPS
Player B - 35 HR/ 117 RBI/ .332 BA/ .445 OBP/ .621 SLG/ 1.066 OPS

Here's how the players compared when they were 32-years old:

Player A - 24 HR/ 77 RBI/ .226 BA/ .313 OBP/ .421 SLG/ .734 OPS
Player B - 23 HR/ 89 RBI/ .264 BA/ .369 OBP/ .507 SLG/ .877 OPS

It should be noted that Player A was a full-time player who may have been worn down some by playing the field every day. Player B is a full-time DH. When they hit their age 33-years old season?

Player A - .228 BA / .306 OBP / .361 SLG / .667 OPS
Player B - .197 BA / .305 OBP / .306 SLG / .611 OPS

Player A is Dale Murphy while Player B is David Ortiz. Dale Murphy was an Atlanta icon but he ended up traded for flotsam and jetsam the year after his age 33 season when it was clear that he was no longer the player he once was. Will Boston icon David Ortiz suffer a similar fate?