Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

The Red Sox traded Shane Victorino yesterday. I may be in the minority but I never warmed to Victorino. Sorry. I still insist that Boston would have been much better off signing Torii Hunter three years ago... Just in time for breakfast - Medieval art's top 10 butt licking cats... Over the past 3-years Hunter has played 374 games (and counting) while Victorino has been on the field for just 185 games over that same period of time... George McGovern having a child out of wedlock is again news. I have to mention that I pointed this out more than 3-years ago... So which Boston team ends up making more trades this week - the Celtics or the Red Sox? So far it's tied at 1-trade apiece... Dry ice and dishwashing soap... Baphomet's Hangover would be a good name for a fantasy football team or a band... Cool video on Nate Boyer's unique path to the NFL... Do the Red Sox win the World Series in 2013 without Shane Victorino? I don't know - therein lies the rub as to why he's so beloved... The "answer" to why Amazon has passed WalMart...

State of the Red Sox

Here's five thoughts on the recent shake-up of the Red Sox roster.

1. The biggest difference between the pre-trade deadline line-up and the line-up today is the fact that Boston went from having two players (Ortiz, Napoli) with 25+ HR potential to having five (Ortiz, Napoli, Middlebrooks, Craig and Cespedes). I included Allen Craig even though the most HR he's hit in a season was 22 (but it was in just 119 games). That's a huge difference in pop in the line-up.

2. I have to wonder if Shane Victorino was healthy enough to pass a deadline physical whether he would have been traded too. My guess is he's shut down for the season and dealt once he's healthy. Did I say guess or hope?

3. How do the Red Sox hope to compete for top talent if they are not willing to pay the going rate? The Yankees gave Masahiro Tanaka a 7-year $155 million deal while Boston management looks like it was unwilling to give Jon Lester something comparable to a 5-year $110 million deal.

4. Conversely it should be noted that Oakland had the best record in baseball while relying mainly on young arms (plus 30-year olds Scott Kazmir and Jesse Chavez). Ace Sonny Gray 24, Tommy Milone 27, Dan Straily 25, and Drew Pomeranz 25 have made a combined 53 starts for the first place A's this season. Compare that to Boston's young arms of Brandon Workman 25, Rubby Del La Rosa 25, Allan Webster 24, and Anthony Ranaudo 24. It looks like Boston is looking to use the A's blueprint next season.

5. The speculation is that with payroll down to just $95 million for next season the Red Sox will use their stockpile of prospects to make a big splash in the trade market. The focus has been on Giancarlo Stanton but the two names I'd like to see on a Boston Opening Day roster next season are Troy Tulowitzki or Cole Hamels. Both would be great.

Who the Red Sox Should Trade

Brian MacPherson has a list of 10 players the Red Sox may be looking to sell. While I agree that the Red Sox would be wise to move Badenhop, Breslow, Carp, Dubront, Drew, and Gomes - I would disagree about the other names on his list (Lester, Middlebrooks, Miller and Uehara).

To the six players I agree the Red Sox should shop - I would also add:

Shane Victorino - has one more year on his contract ($13 million) and who is know hitting exclusively right-handed. Aren't right handed bats supposed to be in demand?

Edward Mujica - also has one more year on his contract ($4.75 million). I think of Mujica as another Mark Melancon who is dominate in the NL but for whatever reasons just had problems performing in Boston.

My reasons for disagreeing with MacPherson on the four players listed?

Jon Lester - to quote Teddy KGB "play that man his money." If they trade Lester he's gone for good.Pay him his money and just recognize the front office screwed up trying to be cute in their initial offers.

Will Middlebrooks - too valuable a prospect to trade. He has 30-HR potential as a corner infielder. Those don't grow on trees. He's also under team control for another 4 more years! Middlebrooks isn't going anywhere (for now).

Andrew Miller - I will admit that it would make sense to trade Miller since he's a free agent after the season but my heart hopes Miller realizes that he was able to turn his career around in Boston and that leaving may be a mistake.

Koji Uehara - if they do trade Koji I will understand but I would love to see him as the closer for another 2 more years. Main reason not to trade him - who's the closer in 2015? Does the Red Sox front office really want to go through that circus again?

State of the Red Sox

As of this morning the Red Sox are 9.5 games back in the AL East and 8 games out of the Wild Card. That's worse than 2 weeks ago when I did my last State of the Red Sox. In that post I made 5 suggested moves for Boston to make. So far they have made 2 (bringing up Mookie Betts and getting rid of AJ Pierzynski). I can easily see them making the other 3 moves listed (trading Jake Peavy and Jonny Gomes and signing Jon Lester) and that certainly would be a move in the right direction.

Having said the above - here's 4 more moves I would like to see the Red Sox make.

1. Trade Edward Mujica who just hasn't fit in with Boston. He reminds me of Mark Melancon who just couldn't handle Boston but thrived in the NL. Trade Mujiica to some NL team in need of bullpen help and save yourself the $4.75 million he's owed for 2015. Maybe lump Mujica and Peavy together in a package?

2. Trade Shane Victorino. I cannot stress enough how much I want Boston to make this move. Victorino now just bats from the right side and righty bats are in demand. The Red Sox would have to wait till he gets off the DL but I would much rather see the plate appearances go to Mookie Betts or Brock Holt. Victorino is signed through next year at $13 million so that money would come off the books and give Boston more flexibility.

3. Trade Stephen Drew. Probably would have to eat half his remaining salary for the year but most fans would much rather see Brock Holt or Xander Bogaerts at short or even Jonathan Herrera who is Drew's equal with the glove but at this point worth more than 170 points in OPS at the plate.

4. Trade for Troy Tulowitzki. I know this is a long shot but if Tulo is "quietly" letting people know he'd be OK with being traded - that means he wants to be traded. Tulo has a good size contract but that money is peanuts to Boston. Use Xander Bogaerts as the centerpiece of a deal and include a couple of pitching prospects as well. So let it be written - so let it be done!

State of the Red Sox

As I write this the Red Sox are 8 games back in the AL East and 7 back in the AL Wild Card. Time to panic and become sellers? Yes and no. Here are the five moves I'd suggest Boston make in the next two weeks.

1. Trade Jake Peavy. Like right now. Peavy has his World Series ring and his Duck Boat. All he is doing now is taking up a spot in the rotation that would be better used by a returning Clay Buchholz or a Rubby Del La Rosa. He's 1-6 (not his fault) with a 4.93 ERA (his fault). He's got an ERA+ of 81. That's below replacement level - replace him. Eat half his contract and send him to an NL team in need of a 4th or 5th starter. Look for this move to happen. It's just so apparent at this point to everyone involved.

2. Bring up Mookie Betts who has a .960 OPS with 29 steals so far in AA and AAA this season. Gordon Edes seems to be arguing against this move but I think it is one that has to happen and the sooner the better.

3. Trade Jonny Gomes. If you bring up Mookie Betts you have to play him and Gomes would be one of the guys standing in his way. Gomes has the reputation as a winner and a good clubhouse guy - use that reputation to trade him to an NL team in the playoff hunt for a bag of balls.

4. Trade AJ Pierzynski. The guy is a dick and I feel dirty rooting for him. Christian Vazquez would be a big improvement defensively and the team needs to learn if he can hit at the MLB level. Besides what are you really losing offensively with Pierzynski posting a 75 OPS+?

5. Sign Jon Lester to a 5-year $100 million contract. It's going to happen anyway so do it now to show the fans the team is thinking long term.

Bonus move - once Shane Victorino is healthy trade him too.

State of the Red Sox

The Red Sox aren't good (so far) this season. The Globe's Chad Finn argues that there isn't much that GM Ben Cherington could have done this off-season to have really made a difference. His article has me conflicted. On the one hand I prescribe to Bill Simmons' theory that a team that wins a championship should get a 5-year grace/get out of jail free period from its fans - so I'm not complaining. On the other hand there was a move Ben Cherington made last year that I disagreed with and think now we are seeing the issues from that move - so don't tell me that there was nothing Cherington could have done to avoid the current malaise.

Let's look at a Player Comparison.

2014 Player Comparison:
Player A - 21 G/ 91 AB/ 1 HR/ 10 RBI/ .242 BA/ .276 OBP/ .352 SLG/ .627 OPS
Player B - 54 G/ 210 AB/ 9 HR/ 32 RBI/ .267 BA/ .291 OBP/  .448 SLG/ .739 OPS

Player B certainly would have been helpful and an upgrade over what the Red Sox currently have going on in the outfield. But the thing is Player A was so helpful in the Red Sox winning the World Series - could Player B have made a similar or better contribution?

2013 Player Comparison:
Player A - 122 G/ 477 AB/ 15 HR/ 61 RBI/ .292 BA/ .351 OBP/ .451 SLG/ .801 OPS
Player B - 144 G/ 606 AB/ 17 HR/ 84 RBI/ .304 BA/ .334 OBP/ .465 SLG/ .800 OPS

So Player A is Shane Victorino and Player B is Torii Hunter. Hunter is every bit as good - or better than Victorino both at the plate and in the field and it should be mentioned in the clubhouse. The Red Sox could have had Torii Hunter for similar money but fewer years than what they gave Victorino. That was a move Cherington didn't make but should have.

But I'm not complaining because Boston won the World Series last year with Shane Victorino in right field.

Red Sox Offseason Moves - Position Players

Here's how I see the Red Sox roster for position players going forward for the 2014 season. Pretty long position-by-position breakdown so if you are interested - it continues after the break.

Top 5 - Sunday Morning Baseball Questions

Here are my Top 5 baseball questions I'm asking myself this Sunday morning (in reverse order of importance).

5. How come the Red Sox didn't make a qualifying offer to Cody Ross? Boston strategy this off-season has been to over-pay but go for shorter terms. You can't get much shorter term than a one-year qualifying offer. They would have had to pay him $13 million for that season but if they are willing to pay that to Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino for longer contracts wouldn't a one-year deal offer make sense to Ross? Did the Red Sox cost themselves either a power bat at Fenway or a draft pick here?

4. Even more puzzling is why the Nationals didn't offer Edwin Jackson a qualifying offer?

3. The Indians signed Nick Swisher to a 4-year $56 million contract. The signing will cost Cleveland a draft pick which makes me wonder if the Tribe would have been better off using the money they spent on Swisher to have instead kept Shin-Soo Choo? I know that Choo's agent is Scott Boras which means he probably would have gone to free-agency instead but it doesn't stop me from wondering.

2. Why did the Red Sox sign Shane Victorino to such a big contract? I'll be scratching my head over that for some time to come.

1. Why did Ryan Freel kill himself? Let me echo Roco Baldelli - "Lets pay better attention to the ones we love."

State of the Red Sox

This blog will from time to time give to his readers information on the state of the Red Sox. Today is one of those times.

I've been trying to make sense out of the moves the Red Sox have been making in the off-season. When you look at the moves as a whole then only one thing makes sense - there's another shoe (or shoes) to drop. Let me explain.

Shane Victorino? This signing makes no sense except in the light that the signing allows the Red Sox to trade Jacoby Ellsbury. Torii Hunter would have been a much better fit for Fenway's right field but Victorino is a better fit in center. For the record - I would have preferred to milk Ellsbury for one last year and then let him walk as a free agent and pocket the draft pick compensation. Ellsbury has Scott Boras as an agent is is almost a certainty to sign elsewhere next winter so the Red Sox may think getting out from under a potential over-bidding war now would be the best move.

Keep in mind that Ellsbury was originally drafted with the pick the Red Sox got for losing Orlando Cabrera to the Angels and that his eventual replacement - Jackie Bradley Jr. was a compensation pick for the Red Sox losing Adrian Beltre. So they must know the value of these compensation picks but have decided to trade Ellsbury anyway. (All the recent articles saying Ellsbury isn't on the trading block probably means that Ellsbury is on the trading block.)

Stephen Drew makes Jose Iglesias expendable. The Red Sox top prospect is SS Xander Bogaerts who is probably a year or two away from the bigs. Iglesias has unbelievable fielding ability but very little in the bat department. Still he has trade value and signing Drew will allow them to move Iglesias.

Signing catcher David Ross makes Jarrod Saltalamacchia a trade chip. Pairing Ross with Ryan Lavarnway makes the most sense. Waiting to see where AJ Pierzynski signs to maximize Salty's trade value also makes sense.

I see the signing of Ryan Dempster as the replacement of Josh Beckett's innings and productivity at about half the cost. Good move (would have preferred Dan Haren but who am I?). The signing gives the Red Sox a rotation of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Ryan Dempster, John Lackey and either Franklin Morales or Felix Doubront. Either Franklin or Felix easily could be turned into a trade chip.

To a lesser degree the signing of Koji Uehara also makes Daniel Bard expendable.

What could be holding up any moves is the signing of Mike Napoli. With Napoli in the fold the Red Sox would be able to take calls on Ellsbury with Iglesias, Saltalamacchia, Franklin Morales, and Daniel Bard as additional chips. It should be noted that the Red Sox have a pretty stocked bullpen and this is the time of year when teams start looking to fill holes in theirs.

Just throwing this out there but how about a trade that sends Andre Ethier and Chris Capuano from the Dodgers for Saltalamachia, Franklin Morales and a top prospect or two?

Thoughts on Red Sox Moves at Winter Meetings

Here are my thoughts regarding the roster moves the Boston Red Sox have made regarding the Winter meetings:

1. I'm a little ambivalent regarding signing Mike Napoli. Three-years $39 million seems a bit much but I've decided to look at the bright side of this signing - Napoli will give the Red Sox about the same OPS in 2013 that the Yankees will get out of Mark Teixeira but at half the price.
2. I hate the Shane Victorino signing. Hate it. 100% agree with Kirk Minihane that it was a mistake. Let me ask you two questions - how is Victorino better than Torii Hunter who got two-years $26 million from the Tigers? The Red Sox would have been so much better off giving Hunter two-years and $30 million than signing Victorino. Much better off. Secondly - how is Victorino even an upgrade over Ryan Kalish? Hate this move.
3. David Ortiz has to be wondering WTF? The Red Sox squeeze Ortiz trying to avoid giving him a multi-year deal and then turn around and sign Napoli and Victorino to more years and the same per year salaries? The optics are bad by management.
4. The Red Sox should have done more to sign Dan Haren. Maybe a two-year $26 million deal would have worked. The money they spent on Victorino would have been much better used on Haren in my opinion. Opportunity missed here.

If the Red Sox had signed Torii Hunter and Dan Haren - I'd be pretty excited about the Sox right now. Instead they signed Napoli and Victorino and I'm honestly left scratching my head.