State of the Red Sox

This blog will from time to time give to his readers information on the state of the Red Sox. Today is one of those times.

I've been trying to make sense out of the moves the Red Sox have been making in the off-season. When you look at the moves as a whole then only one thing makes sense - there's another shoe (or shoes) to drop. Let me explain.

Shane Victorino? This signing makes no sense except in the light that the signing allows the Red Sox to trade Jacoby Ellsbury. Torii Hunter would have been a much better fit for Fenway's right field but Victorino is a better fit in center. For the record - I would have preferred to milk Ellsbury for one last year and then let him walk as a free agent and pocket the draft pick compensation. Ellsbury has Scott Boras as an agent is is almost a certainty to sign elsewhere next winter so the Red Sox may think getting out from under a potential over-bidding war now would be the best move.

Keep in mind that Ellsbury was originally drafted with the pick the Red Sox got for losing Orlando Cabrera to the Angels and that his eventual replacement - Jackie Bradley Jr. was a compensation pick for the Red Sox losing Adrian Beltre. So they must know the value of these compensation picks but have decided to trade Ellsbury anyway. (All the recent articles saying Ellsbury isn't on the trading block probably means that Ellsbury is on the trading block.)

Stephen Drew makes Jose Iglesias expendable. The Red Sox top prospect is SS Xander Bogaerts who is probably a year or two away from the bigs. Iglesias has unbelievable fielding ability but very little in the bat department. Still he has trade value and signing Drew will allow them to move Iglesias.

Signing catcher David Ross makes Jarrod Saltalamacchia a trade chip. Pairing Ross with Ryan Lavarnway makes the most sense. Waiting to see where AJ Pierzynski signs to maximize Salty's trade value also makes sense.

I see the signing of Ryan Dempster as the replacement of Josh Beckett's innings and productivity at about half the cost. Good move (would have preferred Dan Haren but who am I?). The signing gives the Red Sox a rotation of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Ryan Dempster, John Lackey and either Franklin Morales or Felix Doubront. Either Franklin or Felix easily could be turned into a trade chip.

To a lesser degree the signing of Koji Uehara also makes Daniel Bard expendable.

What could be holding up any moves is the signing of Mike Napoli. With Napoli in the fold the Red Sox would be able to take calls on Ellsbury with Iglesias, Saltalamacchia, Franklin Morales, and Daniel Bard as additional chips. It should be noted that the Red Sox have a pretty stocked bullpen and this is the time of year when teams start looking to fill holes in theirs.

Just throwing this out there but how about a trade that sends Andre Ethier and Chris Capuano from the Dodgers for Saltalamachia, Franklin Morales and a top prospect or two?

Red Sox Should Claim Cliff Lee

I agree with Jeff Passan that Cliff Lee is worth being claimed off of waivers. I just think the team to claim him should be the Red Sox.

Passan is right that Lee's performance has been much better than his record and that compared to what will be available via free agency the next two years - he's worth taking a shot. The Red Sox can easily afford him with Kevin Youkilis and Dice-K coming off the books next year - they should claim him. If the Sox are lucky the Phillies will just let him go to get out from his contract. If not maybe they would take Daniel Bard who still has an A-type arm but who is really in need of a change of scenery. Getting Bard back with Papelbon may be just what the doctor ordered.

State of the Red Sox

For a guy who is down on the Red Sox - I sure do think about them a lot. That's what it's like to be a Red Sox fan these days. It's like having a blood relative cousin who seems to be doing OK on the surface but who you know is having all sorts of issues behind the scenes. You are concerned, you want to do something but it really isn't your place.

At one point you couldn't have been more proud of your cousin. You used to brag about him to all your out of state friends. But your cousin had a couple of rough months last year and now your cousin is getting over a tough divorce (Terry Francona and Theo Epstein) and you aren't so sure that the new flame(s) are good for him (Bobby Valentine and Ben Cherington). But who are you to say anything?

You also think your cousin is not hanging with the right sort of friends. One of the guys he's hanging with is much more concerned with finding snitches than being a good member of the community. You see this as a bad thing but the professional counselors (sports writers) think anyone who wants to get rid of that bad friend is stupid because the friend has had great success when he was younger and that's all that counts.

The thing about relatives who have issues and may not be all that likable when you take a good look - you lose interest in them and their problems after a while. Even if they have some success - it doesn't mean as much to you as it once did. That's the state of the Red Sox in a nutshell.

Warning to Red Sox front office types - once people stop caring it is very hard to get that passion back. Expect lower NESN ratings. And lower advertising revenues.

Three Points:

1. Perhaps the most heart warming team success story this year is that of the first place Cleveland Indians. It should be noted that the core players for the Indians Sin-Soo Choo, Asdubal Cabrera, and Carlos Santana were players Cleveland obtained in trades for veterans. Are we to believe that Josh Beckett and Kevin Youkilis would not have the sort of trade value the Indians found for Ben Broussard, Eduardo Perez, and Casey Blake? Kevin Youkilis and Casey Blake are almost the same player!

2. Not to rain on the accomplishments of very likable Mike Aviles this year for the Sox but look at this player comparison:

Mike Aviles - 25 R/ 7 HR/ 25 RBI/ .272 BA/ .300 OBP/ .781 OPS
Player B      - 15 R/ 5 HR/ 16 RBI/ .274 BA/ .357 .OBP/ .801 OPS

Player B is Jed Lowrie who the Red Sox traded away. Would the Red Sox have been better off if they had just kept Lowrie? I think the answer to this question still hasn't been answered.

3. People are still talking about moving Daniel Bard back to the bullpen. Why? Despite a bad first inning the other day - Bard has been perhaps the most consistent Red Sox starter this year. Why mess with the guy? Especially when you have Mark Melancon (the guy Lowrie was traded for) tearing it up at AAA Pawtucket. Melancon has a 0.00 ERA in 13 games for the Pawsox but he hasn't been recalled because the Red Sox bullpen has been doing so well. But if they are doing so well - why do people want to chuck Bard back into the mix and out of the rotation?

Red Sox Magic Number - 144

Many people have made the point that the Red Sox have more contract dollars on the DL then teams have in total salary. The people talking about this are missing an important point - it is not the players on the DL that are making this Red Sox team a mediocre unit - it is the players on the active roster. In specific it is the starting pitching.

Before last season some people were arguing that the Red Sox starting 5 of Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Buchholz and Matsuzaka was the best in baseball. This season some people are arguing that the Red Sox starting 5 is the worst in the AL East. Talk about the bloom being off the rose.

Daniel Bard has the best ERA among the starters with a 4.38 which equates to an ERA+ of 98. That means that even the best Red Sox starter has been worse than the MLB average (average being 100). Put it another way - of the Red Sox starting pitchers only Clay Buchholz has a winning record (3-1) and that's only because he's been "lucky" as evidenced by Buchholz's 8.69 ERA.

Red Sox fans have been rooting for this team out of habit - not because of anything they have earned on the field.

As an aside the USS Worcester (CL-144) was a post WWII light cruiser. I'll use any excuse to mention Worcester.

Top 5 - Moves I'd Make if I Owned Red Sox

Things are bad with the Boston Red Sox - that's no secret. Here's 5 moves that I'd make to try and fix things.

1. Fire Bobby Valentine. I think it is clear to pretty much everyone that Valentine is a bad fit. I would replace him with DeMarlo Hale who is currently the 3rd base coach for the Orioles. Hale knows the organization and the players. I don't think the Orioles would stand in his way to get a managing position. I'd give Hale a 2-year deal with an option which would keep the door ajar for John Farrell.

2. I'd move Daniel Bard to closer. I've been a constant advocate for Bard in the starting rotation but the situation warrants drastic action. Make Bard the closer until Andrew Bailey returns and then re-evaluate. The evaluation may say to keep Bard as closer and make Bailey the set-up guy. Or maybe Bailey comes back as closer and then Bard moves back to rotation? Right now Bard needs to take over closer role.

3. Taking Bard out of the rotation opens up the 5th starter role which I'd give to Aaron Cook who has done everything the team has asked of him. Cook is 2-0 in 3 starts for Pawtucket with a 1.35 ERA.

4. Trade or dump Vincent Padilla. I was against this signing from the start. The guy has a 9.82 ERA and is a clubhouse bomb waiting to go off. I'm not making him a scapegoat but I do want him out of the clubhouse.

5. This would he the hardest one to accomplish - trade Kevin Youkilis and bring up Will Middlebrooks who is killing the ball in AAA (7 HR in just 66 AB). Youkilis makes $12 million this year and has a $13 million option for 2013. If the Red Sox picked up half the tab they could probably swing a deal with some team in need of a 1st or 3rd baseman.

Those are the 5 moves I'd make if I was in charge of the Red Sox. So let it be written - so let it be done.

P.S. I'd also ditch once and for all Sweet Caroline. That gimmick has run its course. A love song to an 11-year old girl? Seriously - its an embarrassment.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

It should be noted that Mike Aviles who ends up being the starting shortstop for one of baseball's richest teams was basically given up for nothing by the Royals. To get Aviles the Red Sox gave up Kendal Volz (flotsam) and  Yamaico Navarro (jetsam)...  Heh heh - the most accurate Jets passer... Could a guy who owns a landscaping business also be called a geostrategist?... All the talk about Etch-a-sketch reminds me of the Emerson quote, "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines"...  15 Bizarre Portraits of Nude Politicians. I thought the JFK assassination was tastefully done... Last night the Boston Bruins honored team Captain Zdeno Chara who recently played his 1,000th game. Chara reminds me of what could have been if Gord Kluzak had healthy knees. Kluzak may have been (slightly) shorter but he was actually much more talented than Chara (which is not a knock on Chara just a reminder of how great Kluzak could have been)... Taking the phrase "a man's home is his castle" literally... If anyone snarks at you about Mitt Romney and "car elevators" remind that person that Mitt is mega rich and that his wife Ann has MS... Do you have an extra $35-70,000 laying around? The 1959 Masters Green Jacket is for sale... If Rick Santorum was elected President his first act would be to outlaw folk music in Catholic Churches. Acoustic guitars have no place near the altar in Santorum's America... Finally - a product that is just begging for a Ben Roethlisberger endorsement. Just begging for it... The have been a number of articles recently about the debate of the Red Sox using Daniel Bard as a starter or whether he should stay in the bullpen. If the article fails to mention Justin Masterson then the article was either lazy or biased towards Bard going back to the bullpen (looking at you Ken Rosenthal)... Wow - Matt Bush does not seem like a very good human being... I think a TV show called Rick Santorum - Vatican Spy would be awesome. You could have a West Wing meets Archer meets Get Smart type mash-up. Wouldn't you watch something like that?...

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

AshleyMadison.com Faithful Republican / Unfaithful Husband "endorsement" of Newt Gingrich was genius. The billboard in Pennsylvania probably cost a few thousand dollars but they are easily getting ten-times that in free exposure... Excellent parody of the David Bowie / Bing Crosby Little Drummer Boy holiday classic... I am glad that the Red Sox did not trade for Gio Gonzalez because he would have cost too much in terms of prospects. I would much rather see the Red Sox commit to making Daniel Bard a starter... Drew Brees cannot get through the gate. The gate is narrow. Also Drew Brees drives a gay parade float... The 50 Funniest Headlines of 2011... "I would like - to feed your fingertips - to the wolverines"... Is it me or have the Boston Celtics draft results from the past several years been awful?... If they made a Broadway play based upon the campaign of Newt Gingrich - the lead could be played by Bernadette Peters... Did I miss the Def Leopard Christmas Special? Damn every year I miss that... I absolutely love this idea:

@StevanRidley - Double Stuffed Oreos should be called Oreos, and regular Oreos should be called Diet Oreos..

Johnny Damon

I like Johnny Damon. I like the Red Sox. I'm glad Johnny Damon turned down the chance to return to Boston. Let me explain.

Johnny Damon wasn't treated fairly on his way out of Boston. He signed as a free agent, gave Boston four solid years, helped the team win it's first World Series in 96 years and then the Red Sox made him what comes down to a take it or leave it offer. Damon wanted to stay but was basically shoved out the door. The Red Sox replaced him with Coco Crisp which if are honest was a step down especially when you factor in Damon's durability.

Damon went on to four productive years with the Yankees where he was an integral part of their latest championship. They too basically showed Damon the door this past season - and that was a mistake. Do you think if the Yankees were given a do-over that they would still choose Nick Johnson over Damon for their DH?

Having said the above - I'm glad Damon turned down the chance to return to Boston. Even with the Red Sox hurting for outfield depth - I would prefer they go with rookie Ryan Kalish over Damon. Kalish is a better defender and the offense is almost equal (with Kalish having the higher upside).

As an aside - the Red Sox used the draft pick they got for allowing Damon to sign with the Yankees to draft Daniel Bard. To me that's the one silver lining in this whole mess.