Clay Buchholz

Yesterday the Red Sox traded pitcher Clay Buchholz to the Phillies for second baseman / DH prospect Josh Tobias. Before I give my thoughts on the "trade" I have to confess two things; when I saw Buchholz was pitching for Boston most times my first thought was "take the over!" and my second thought usually was "hey Buchholz does kinda look like Hilary Swank".

This was a "trade" only in the sense that Philadelphia included a player on their end. This really was a straight salary dump on the part of the Red Sox. Buchholz's $13.5 million contract had to come off the books to give Boston some in-season flexibility and to get the team under the salary cap. The trade happened now because Dave Dombrowski wanted the Red Sox front office to wrap business up before the holidays.

Buchholz as a player was maddening to most Red Sox fans. He would have seasons like 2010 (17-7 with a 2.33 ERA) or 2013 (12-1 with a 1.74 ERA) but he'd also have seasons where he just sucked or was hurt (which was often). And Buchholz has the potential to continue to be maddening to Red Sox fans. If he pitches effectively for the Phillies there's a real potential for him to be traded for a much better prospect than what the Red Sox got in Josh Tobias. And if the team that trades for him is say the Toronto Blue Jays (Buchholz has a career 11-3 record and a 2.63 ERA at the Rogers Centre) - can you imagine how Boston fans will react if he beats them in a big second half game next season? Maddening!

Even though he could be maddening - I wish Clay Buchholz the best of luck with his new team. Maybe a change of scenery will help him to finally reach his potential. And I'd be remiss if I didn't say "Thank you Clay for being a big part of the 2013 World Series champs - there's so few members of that team still on the roster."

Red Sox Get Chris Sale

So the Red Sox pulled the trigger on a trade for White Sox ace Chris Sale. That now gives them a rotation of Sale, David Price, reigning AL CY Winner Rick Porcello, Edwin Rodriguez and probably Clay Buchholz with Drew Pomeranz being insurance in the bullpen. That's a hell of a rotation. Easily top 3 in baseball (Cubs fans and Mets fans can argue the order). Knuckleballer Steven Wright might be on the outside looking in despite going 13-6 with a 3.33 ERA last season because that's how knuckleballers seem to be treated in MLB.

In order to get Sale the Red Sox gave up perhaps the top prospect in baseball in Yoan Moncada, fireballer Michael Kopech and lottery tickets Victor Diz and Luis Basabe. Much less than I was willing to give up in my hypothetical trade a few days ago. I LOVE the trade!

Some people are concerned about Sale's weight and delivery. Such talk just reminds me of the trade that brought Pedro Martinez to Boston with Carl Pavano and Tony Armas going to the Expos in exchange. Pedro was too thin they said at the time. His delivery is an injury waiting to happen they said at the time. Well that trade worked out OK.

Now I don't mean to compare Sale to Pedro - or to Randy Johnson for that matter (even though height and lefthandedness make that the first comparison that comes to mind). This trade is all about winning now and I like that. I don't care if Moncada goes on to win an MVP in Chicago - as long as Boston gets to the World Series in the next three years. If that happens this trade is a win for Boston.

Since I predicted this trade a few days ago so why not try my hand at a couple more predictions:

1. The Clay Buchholz experience will be traded before the start of the season (maybe even this week)
2. Boston fans and writers will come up with a much better nickname for Chris Sale than "the condor".  That's a mediocre nickname at best. (I also predict some hack Boston writer will use "Condor No Big Unit" after Sale's first loss with the Red Sox.)

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Clay Buchholz is the only regular starting pitcher on the Red Sox with an ERA under 5.00 (and his is 4.58)... Explaining TV to a kid 20-years from now...  I read a headline that said "ISIS Could Buy Nuke" but my mind read it as "ISIS Could Buy Nike". I'm not sure which would be more impressive... This photo is real? I always just assumed it was some sort of photoshop... If I were to run a scam it would be as a pet fish medium. How could anyone prove you weren't actually communicating with a beloved dead goldfish?... Interesting - how far did Sam and Frodo walk?... Do you think there are any NBA GM's out there who would rather have Doc Rivers over Brad Stevens at this point? I mean besides the Clippers GM (who is also Doc Rivers)... Roger Goodell will have to answer this question in court... If you think about it most Popeye cartoons boil down to Brutus trying to rape Olive Oyl and Popeye trying to stop him... I always get a kick out of this animation...

Red Sox Thoughts

The Red Sox have brought in both free agents Jon Lester and Pablo Sandoval for visits. My hope is that they sign (re-sign?) Lester and let Sandoval go back to the Giants.

Lester is a workhorse and I would not have an issue with a 6-year $127-140 million deal. I see the 31-year old Lester as a left-handed Curt Schilling who was able to pitch until he was 40-years old.

Everyone remembers the heroics of Sandoval in the post-season but in the regular season he's basically just a 6-hole hitter. Brian MacPherson has a good breakdown of what Sandoval is and isn't. Don't over pay for that!

Let me also say that I wouldn't mind if Clay Buchholz was traded as part of a package for Cole Hamels or straight up for Doug Fister (I think 3-years of Buchholz at $38.5 million total is a good value for the free agent to be Fister).

So let it be written - so let it be done!

Red Sox Offseason Moves - Pitchers

Here's my take on the Red Sox pitching staff for 2014. I'm assuming that the team will carry 12 pitchers and I'm also guessing one big name will be traded.

The starting pitching staff has 6 proven starters vying for 5 spots. Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and John Lackey are givens. That leaves Jake Peavy, Ryan Dempster and Felix Dubront fighting for the 4th and 5th starter spots. That also leaves an interesting question - do you hang on to all three in case someone goes down in spring training? Or do you trade a Peavy, Dempster or a Dubront to ease the logjam?

Peavy ($14.5 million) and Dempster ($13 million) make too much money to be long relievers.  Peavy cost a top prospect to get and he's only going to be 33 this season. My guess is he'd bring the most back in a trade (especially to an NL team). Dempster will be 37 next year but his numbers are just as good as Peavy and probably more durable.

Logic says that just because of salary if the Red Sox trade a starter it should be Peavy or Demspter but I wouldn't be shocked if the Boston front office traded Felix Dubront instead. Felix went 11-6 with a 4.32 ERA last season and is under team control for 4 more seasons. I see his ceiling as a 3rd starter and you know his conditioning and work ethic were in question last spring. Ben Cherington could sell high on Dubront and get back an MLB ready 1st baseman or outfielder in exchange. Boston's farm system is chock full of starters with higher ceilings than Dubront. Keeping Peavy and Demspter for one more season and trading Dubront both eases the logjam and gives those young pitchers another year to develop.

For the seven member bullpen - the Red Sox have the following under contract or team control; Koji Uehara returns as closer, Craig Breslow, Andrew Miller, Andrew Bailey, Junichi Tazawa, and Brandon Workman seems to be a John Farrell favorite. That leaves one spot which could easily come from Drake Britton, Rubby de la Rosa and Franklin Morales.

Boston seems to be in very good position of not even having to dip its toe into the free agent pool to put together its 2014 pitching staff. It will be interesting to see if someone gets traded. And who.

Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens

I thought Tommy Hanson and Jair Jerrjens would become the cornerstones of the Braves starting staff. Today neither player is even on Atlanta's roster. Hanson was traded to the Angels for reliever Jordan Walden. Meanwhile Jurrjens was simply released.

I know the Braves are pitching rich but it seems like they got very little in return for players who just two years ago would have garnered at least top prospects. I know that both players have struggled with injuries but it still seems strange.

It also makes me think that maybe the Red Sox look at Hanson and Jurrjens and think Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester.

EDIT: It looks like Red Sox GM is "open-minded" about trading Lester.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Some day soon Josh Hamilton's life will be immortalized by a Country and Western song. There may even be a whole CD of ballads about Hamilton... Would the Mets do a Johan Santana for Clay Buchholz swap? The Mets would get a young pitcher under control for years and also shed a tremendous amount of cash. The Red Sox would get an ace under contract for at least this season and next... Donald Trump should legally add an "O" to the end of his name to make his "brand" more appealing to Europeans. Besides I just like the idea of calling him Donald Trumpo... In June of 2006 - Barack Obama was a 30-1 shot to win the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination. That would have been a good bet... Stunt Custard would be a good name for a band (or a fantasy football name)... Curt Schilling should have put it on the Underhill's bill... Airport taco should be slang for something - or it could be a good fantasy football name...

Red Sox Magic Number - 144

Many people have made the point that the Red Sox have more contract dollars on the DL then teams have in total salary. The people talking about this are missing an important point - it is not the players on the DL that are making this Red Sox team a mediocre unit - it is the players on the active roster. In specific it is the starting pitching.

Before last season some people were arguing that the Red Sox starting 5 of Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Buchholz and Matsuzaka was the best in baseball. This season some people are arguing that the Red Sox starting 5 is the worst in the AL East. Talk about the bloom being off the rose.

Daniel Bard has the best ERA among the starters with a 4.38 which equates to an ERA+ of 98. That means that even the best Red Sox starter has been worse than the MLB average (average being 100). Put it another way - of the Red Sox starting pitchers only Clay Buchholz has a winning record (3-1) and that's only because he's been "lucky" as evidenced by Buchholz's 8.69 ERA.

Red Sox fans have been rooting for this team out of habit - not because of anything they have earned on the field.

As an aside the USS Worcester (CL-144) was a post WWII light cruiser. I'll use any excuse to mention Worcester.

Player Comparison

Let's compare the career numbers for these two young pitchers:

Player A: 50-35 / 3.53 ERA / 119 GS / 115 ERA+

Player B: 36-25 / 3.84 ERA / 79 GS / 117 ERA+

Player A is 26-year old Jair Jurrjens of the Braves who was just sent down to the minors because he has been ineffective so far this season going 0-2 with a 9.37 ERA in 4 starts. Player B is Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox who at 27-years old is less seasoned than Jurrjens but who is having an equally bad season with a 1-1 record, 9.00 ERA in 3 starts.

The comparison of the players maybe brings out more of a comparison of the organizations. Jurrjens was hurting the team and so was demoted. Buchholz is hurting the team but will anyone even broach the subject of sending him to Pawtucket? This is an option that has to be considered especially with the prospect of losing Aaron Cook (3-0 with 1.33 ERA in 4 starts) if he isn't brought up to the big club soon.

EDIT: I should have mentioned that I know that Jurrjens isn't the same player because of his knee issues but the same can be said of Buchholz and his back issues. The difference is the Red Sox have control over Buchholz until at least 2015 (with a 2016 option). That should be even more reason to send him down to make sure he's operating at 100%.

Red Sox Magic Number - 163 (Yes still)

The Red Sox haven't opened the season with 3 losses since the 1930's. The Red Sox are slight underdogs in this game (+111) and I think they would be a good pick. The Tigers are at home and probably slightly distracted by family Easter obligations. Clay Buchholz is a better pitcher than Max Scherzer. Pick the Sox today.

Red Sox Physical Health

I remember when the New York Mets had their epic fail in 2007 losing 12 of their last 17 games - the big joke was about how bad their team physicians were. A player would stub a toe and people would automatically guess that he'd be soon on the 60-day DL. How come the Red Sox health and healthcare isn't given the same scrutiny?

In the fall of 2004 Dr. Bill Morgan was hailed as a hero in New England. The man who made it possible for Curt Schilling's bloody sock to go down in baseball history. The next year Dr. Morgan was gone - replaced by Dr. Thomas Gill which was rumored to be part of a package deal with Massachusetts General Hospital. Supposedly it was a marketing deal / partnership which had nothing to do with on the field performance and absolutely something Terry Francona had no control over. Could Francona be paying the price for that partnership today?

Of course this is speculation and I'm not a doctor but as a fan I have to wonder why Dustin Pedroia and Clay Buchholz were allowed to play hurt? Pedroia ended up having his knee scoped in June and was immediately a different player. What if that healthy Pedroia started the season? Would that have been worth an extra win or two? Two more wins and the Red Sox are still playing. What about Clay Buchholz? When did he really get hurt and why did the rehab seemingly take so damn long?

Remember how badly misdiagnosed Jacoby Ellsbury was last season? I guess that's Terry Francona's fault too.

Boston is supposed to have some of the best hospitals and doctors in the world. You would never know that looking at the health of the Red Sox these past few seasons.

Adrian Gonzalez

I for one am pumped for the Adrian Gonzalez era to begin in Boston. A few quick thoughts while waiting for this deal to be consummated:

1. I am a big fan of a strong farm system but any time you have a chance to trade for a proven superstar (given the right circumstances) you have to do it. This isn't a Jeff Bagwell for Larry Andersen situation but there is no guaranty that this isn't a Jon Lester package for a Johan Santana either. I trust Theo that the deal will be fair to San Diego but also not harm the future of the Red Sox.

2. I wonder if Billy Beane has already pulled his offer for Adrian Beltre (if that offer ever existed). Gonzalez to the Red Sox eliminates much or all of the leverage Scott Boras had in negotiations. Don't be surprised if a third team magically appears in the negotiations. The Orioles often excel in this patsy role.

3. When / if this deal gets done - I hope a long-term deal for Clay Buchholz is the next priority for the Red Sox front office.

Possible Red Sox / Dodgers Trade

I'm going to throw this out there because I've been thinking about it all morning. What about a trade between the Red Sox and Dodgers that would send Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz to the Dodgers and Andre Ethier and Russell Martin to the Red Sox?

From the Red Sox perspective in Ethier they would be getting one of the more under-rated corner outfielders in baseball. A player who would be just coming into his prime and who would be under team control for a couple more years. Russell Martin would give them potentially an everyday catcher once Varitek retires and Victor Martinez moves to 1st / DH. That would give the Sox an outfield of Ethier, Mike Cameron and JD Drew (with Jeremy Hermida and Josh Reddick as back-ups). Potentially they could carry three catchers with Martinez, Varitek and Martin being both catcher and pinch hitter options.

From the Dodger perspective - they would get a young pitcher who would probably dominate at Dodger Stadium and in the NL West in general and replace one young outfielder with another. The biggest key would be the fact that the Dodgers would probably save about $10 million in salary once Ethier and Martin were done with their arbitration hearings.

Never happen but it was fun to think about.

Crazy Roy Halladay Trade Proposal

Just tossing this out there but if I were the Red Sox GM for today - this is a package I'd offer to Toronto for Roy Halladay. I would offer Clay Buchholtz (everyone has him in a package), Manny Delcarmen or Justin Masterson (JP Riccardi gets to pick one), a lower level prospect and Jonathan Papelbon.

Yup - Jonathan Papelbon.

That would be the package. Four quality players for Halladay with one being a big name who is a current All-Star and one of the premier closers in the game. And if JP Riccardi wasn't interested in Papelbon (who is under team control for another two years) - then hey flip him to another team for a top prospect or two. The Blue Jays could get as many as five or six top prospects in this deal.

From the Red Sox perspective - they would be getting one of the top starters in the game. Replacing Buchholz in the rotation with Halladay would be awesome. Boston can afford to lose Papelbon because they have Josh Bard ready to step in with his overpowering fastball to become the new Papelbon. What many outside of Boston don't realize is that Papelbon is setting himself up to leave as a free agent after two years and that talk along with his inconsistent performance have soured many Boston fans on the closer.

So let it be written. So let it be done.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

The Tampa Bay Rays are for real and what is scary is that down the stretch they will probably also add highly touted prospect David Price.... Of course the same could be said about the Red Sox and Clay Buchholz... For those Red Sox fans who are pressing the panic button - I say relax. It's not even the All-Star break yet and keep in mind that so far the Rays have played 5 more home games than road games while the Red Sox have played 4 more road games than home games. When that flips in the second half of the season - it will also flip the Rays out of first and the Red Sox back where they belong... Happy birthday to super nice guy Sean Casey who is currently the Red Sox back-up 1st baseman and pinch hitter extrodinaire. For some reason I thought Casey was older than 34... I wonder if the Red Sox would make a run at free agent Pat Burrell instead of picking up Manny's option? Burrell has 20 HR already this season and sports an OPS+ of 156. Before you think that he's putting up numbers because he plays his home games in a bandbox - consider that Burrell has only 6 HR at home and 14 on the road.

Yankees Offer A-Rod Arbitration

Oh my goodness gracious. Of all the dramatic things I've seen in my life - Alex Rodriguez is in the owners box getting the Yankees a sandwich (pick).

This is a no-brainer move by Brian Cashman. The Yankees will get a 1st round pick plus a sandwich pick from the team that signs A-Rod (making A-Rod even less attractive to teams that value draft picks like the Red Sox). Now Cashman just has to offer Andy Pettitte arbitration just to insure he doesn't have a Roger Clemens recurrence (where the player says he's going to retire - then poof - signs with another team).

No draft is as much of a crap shoot as the baseball draft but it should be remembered that the draft is the way to get young players into the system. It should also be noted that the Red Sox used the sandwich pick they received for Pedro Martinez signing with the Mets to draft Clay Buchholz. If the Yankees had offered Roger Clemens arbitration they could have had two shots to draft an impact pitcher. Can you imagine what the Yankees could have done this year with the equivalent of another Phillip Hughes or a Clay Buchholz?

HT Baseball Musings

Red Sox Magic Number - 22

With Clay Buchholz's masterpiece no-hit performance yesterday - the Red Sox magic number is now 22.

There's not much to add about Buchholz's no-no that you haven't already read or heard. Gordon Edes does a good job summing everything up here. The only thing I'll pass along is an observation the bartender where I watched the game kept mentioning - Clay Buchholz does look a lot like Hillary Swank.

Roger Clemens wears the number 22 and I should have given kudos to the Rocket and the other Yankee starters for their fine performances in the last series where they took all three games from the Red Sox. It is something to take with a grain of salt, however. They Yankees play better at home but the only way they will be making the playoffs is as the wildcard. That means that their opponent will have home field advantage. The Yankees have a losing record on the road (31-35) and Chien-Ming Wang's ERA is about 2 runs higher on the road and Roger Clemens's is more than 3 runs higher on the road. Only Andy Pettitte of the three potential playoff starters has a better road ERA than home ERA (which makes sense since Yankee Stadium isn't friendly to lefty pitchers). The Yankees with their offense isn't a team you want to face in the playoffs but then again - what team that is good enough to make the playoffs is a team you want to face?

In New England - the number 22 immediately brings to mind Doug Flutie. Boston College looked good yesterday and I'll post something about the day in college football a little later.

I didn't have a chance to post yesterday when the magic number was 23. What I was going to mention is that the letter "W" is the 23rd letter in the alphabet and interestingly enough - the letter has 2 points pointing down and 3 points pointing up. That's just like the Red Sox.

The 2 pionts down for the Red Sox are the recent injury bug that has hit the team (Manny, Wakefield, Drew, Kielty, etc.) and the inconsistency of the offense (which is exacerbated when Manny or Ortiz is out of the line-up). The three points up for the Red Sox are (A) the starting pitching - I still say the Red Sox have the best rotation in baseball and now they add Buchholz to the mix (B) the bullpen - even with Gagne's early troubles with the Red Sox - it s still a very formidable bullpen and (C) team depth - with the exception of a lack of power - the team is two deep at each position. The positives far outweigh the negatives which again brings us to the letter "W". In baseball "W" stands for wins and no team in baseball has more wins than the Red Sox.