Red Sox Offseason Moves - Pitchers

Here's my take on the Red Sox pitching staff for 2014. I'm assuming that the team will carry 12 pitchers and I'm also guessing one big name will be traded.

The starting pitching staff has 6 proven starters vying for 5 spots. Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and John Lackey are givens. That leaves Jake Peavy, Ryan Dempster and Felix Dubront fighting for the 4th and 5th starter spots. That also leaves an interesting question - do you hang on to all three in case someone goes down in spring training? Or do you trade a Peavy, Dempster or a Dubront to ease the logjam?

Peavy ($14.5 million) and Dempster ($13 million) make too much money to be long relievers.  Peavy cost a top prospect to get and he's only going to be 33 this season. My guess is he'd bring the most back in a trade (especially to an NL team). Dempster will be 37 next year but his numbers are just as good as Peavy and probably more durable.

Logic says that just because of salary if the Red Sox trade a starter it should be Peavy or Demspter but I wouldn't be shocked if the Boston front office traded Felix Dubront instead. Felix went 11-6 with a 4.32 ERA last season and is under team control for 4 more seasons. I see his ceiling as a 3rd starter and you know his conditioning and work ethic were in question last spring. Ben Cherington could sell high on Dubront and get back an MLB ready 1st baseman or outfielder in exchange. Boston's farm system is chock full of starters with higher ceilings than Dubront. Keeping Peavy and Demspter for one more season and trading Dubront both eases the logjam and gives those young pitchers another year to develop.

For the seven member bullpen - the Red Sox have the following under contract or team control; Koji Uehara returns as closer, Craig Breslow, Andrew Miller, Andrew Bailey, Junichi Tazawa, and Brandon Workman seems to be a John Farrell favorite. That leaves one spot which could easily come from Drake Britton, Rubby de la Rosa and Franklin Morales.

Boston seems to be in very good position of not even having to dip its toe into the free agent pool to put together its 2014 pitching staff. It will be interesting to see if someone gets traded. And who.

Red Sox 2013 Starting Pitching

Gordon Edes has a good look at the options available to the Red Sox for their 2013 starting rotation.

Its interesting that Edes doesn't view Alfredo Aceves as a persona non grata with the Red Sox and actually considered him a viable option for the starting rotation. I would think John Farrell would be best served eliminating any headache players from 2012 with Aceves at the top of the list. Aceves is still under team control and will probably only cost a little more than $2 million in arbitration - I'd be dangling him in trade talks.

Also interesting that he doesn't even mention Vincent Padilla as an option. Padilla would be relatively inexpensive to keep and did average more than a K per inning in 2012. He came into town with a bad reputation but he was a solid citizen whose stock with fans went way up as he was one of the only players to attend Johnny Pesky's funeral.

If the Red Sox keep John Lackey then they would have a rotation of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Felix Dubront and Lackey. If that's the case then they have a number of young arms that could step up to be the number 5 starter or fill in if there are any significant injuries.

My preference would be to trade away John Lackey and bring in either Dan Haren or Cliff Lee (if the Phillies are looking to move his contract). Fangraphs has a very good look at Haren whose option may not be picked up by the Angels. It should be noted that 2012 was a bad year for Haren but his 4.33 ERA still would have been the better than any Red Sox starter with more than 10 starts last season.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

I'm a little torn in my AFC West rooting now. I like how Tim Tebow drives some people crazy but I also want Romeo Crennel to succeed so he wins the head coaching job in Kansas City... Boston Celtics doctors can detect Jeff Green's thoracic aortic aneurysm but somehow they completely missed Delonte West and his mental illness... 19 Outstanding Words You Should Be Working Into Conversation... Right now Daisuke Matsuzaka has cost the Red Sox $1.9 million per win. By the end of 2012 John Lackey will have also cost the Red Sox $1.9 million per win... Phil Martelli was great in Young Frankenstein... Christopher Hitchens famously debunked the saying "Whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger" in his last column but I have to wonder what he'd have to write about the saying "No pain no gain"?... Speaking of Hitch - I knew Christopher Hitchens better than you... I'm hoping Norv Turner comes out and says that if he had a team as talented as the Jets then he'd have a playoff spot tied up by now. And speaking of the Jets - I agree with the sentiment that if you switched the QB's from the Jets and Giants then the team with Eli Manning would win by 2 TD's... If the government sold its remaining GM stock today taxpayers would lose about $16.5 billion...Who knew? There are more McDonald's in the US then Wendy's, Burger Kings and White Castles combined... Most rational leaders gave thanks at the news of the death of Kim Jong Il but Jimmy Carter sends condolences. He is truly a craven person...

Theo to the Cubs

There has been so much smoke about Theo Epstein going to the Chicago Cubs to be their new GM that you have to think that there is really something to the story. Consider that the "organization" used house organ Dan Shaughnessy to announce that the Cubs had indeed asked permission. The club could have quietly said no. But they didn't do that. Announcing it like this through the Curly Haired Boyfriend says that the team wants the buzz out there. Buzz out in Chicago will build demand from the fans and create more pressure on the Cubs ownership to pay a price that normally might be considered too high.

This Red Sox organization may not be able to tell the worth of a free agent starting pitcher worth a damn but they can maximize value on assets. Theo Epstein is nothing but an asset at this point - an asset that has just one year left on a contract that Epstein will not renew. They want to sell high and they know the Cubs will be willing to pay the price.

The way I'd love to see this play out is the Red Sox grant the Cubs permission to speak with Epstein wit some basic ground rules. Then assuming Epstein signs with the Cubs - I'd like to see the compensation eventually worked out being the Red Sox assuming the final year of Carlos Zambrano's contract and the Cubs taking on the final 3-years of John "JaMarcus" Lackey's contract. The Red Sox could then eat part of Zambrano's contract and flip him to the Marlins for a prospect. I think this would be a fair deal. The Cubs would get the GM they want, the Red Sox would shed themselves of a cancer of a player and who knows - John Lackey may actually rebound to be a good 3rd started for the Cubs. To replace Theo - Ben Cherington would then be promoted to be the new Red Sox GM.

Keep in mind that potentially the Cubs have the contracts of both Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena coming off the books. That's almost $25 million which could be put towards a mega-contract for Albert Pujols. Can you imagine the buzz around the Cubs if they got both Theo Epstein and Albert Pujols?

This could be a rare situation where everyone gets what they want. So let it be written - so let it be done.

Red Sox Demise - I'm Sick to My Stomach

Seriously. I've eaten more Tums the past few hours than I have in the past year. And why? I thought the Red Sox would win last night and either have a play-in game today or be matched up against Texas in the first round. Either way this team was heading for an early exit. So why did last night's debacle so upset my tummy?

If there was a game today - who would have any confidence in John Lackey pitching the team to victory? Even if they made the playoffs the team just didn't have the pitching to win a series. The team was doomed either way. There wasn't even a "Little left Pedro in too long" situation to gripe about. So why is it that every time I hiccup it feels like acid might squirt through my tear ducts?

So what's next? What does the team do to fix this? Here's my suggestions.

The first step is to get rid of John "F*cking" Lackey. If anyone deserves to be the scapegoat - this piece of sh*t deserves it. Opposing batters hit .353 against him in September - a month where he posted a 9.13 ERA. Those 5 starts for Lackey in September easily was a difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs. Giving Lackey those starts may be what in the end costs Terry Francona his job. And it's not like this is a Monday morning QB situation. EVERYONE knew Lackey was hurting the team!

Top off the Lackey situation with the fact that Lackey is divorcing his wife who had a double mastectomy and is still fighting cancer. The Red Sox have long supported the Jimmy Fund and all facets in the fight against cancer. No way they can keep this loser.

The question is who will take Lackey? If the Red Sox eat $30 million of the remaining $45 million - I think (hope) some West Coast team would take a chance. If they can't find a taker - my hope is the Red Sox exile Lackey to pitch in Pawtucket the way the Yankees exiled Kei Igawa to the minor leagues.

Some quick thoughts:

- JD Drew is gone. He will retire. That clears $14 million off the books.

- Do the Red Sox bring back David Ortiz? Would a 2-year $25 million offer get it done?

- Will Jonathan Papelbon come back? He's a free agent and will some team just throw the moon at him or will the Red Sox be able to bring him back? I was one of those guys who thought the team should go with Daniel Bard as closer next year but right now none of us guys feel comfortable with that thought. You could argue that it was Bard's September meltdown that was just as responsible for the team missing the playoffs. Bard went 0-4 with a 10.64 ERA in September.

- Do the Red Sox trade Kevin Youkilis? He's got one year and an option on his contract so he would be attractive trade bait which could bring back the pieces needed to fill any hole in the roster.

- The Red Sox should bring back Marco Scutaro who has a $6 million team option.

- I'm guessing that the team will part ways with both Tim Wakefield and Jason Varitek -who will both probably retire. Wakefield could open a knuckleball academy while it would be cool if Varitek could stay with the team as assistant pitching coach and emergency 3rd catcher.

- As far as free agents - I would make a strong push for Mark Buehrle and maybe Chris Young (if he passes a physical) but otherwise I don't trust Theo to make a big splash.

- Bring back Theo and Tito for another year. Give them extensions and one more shot.

- I would love if the Red Sox traded for Marlins ace Josh Johnson who is coming back after injury but is owed about $26 million for the next 2-years. Offer them a big package for Johnson - please!

Less than 140 freakin days until pitchers and catchers.

Cascades Karma

There is a series of hiking trails near my house and this past summer I have taken to hiking them on almost a daily basis. The trails are known locally as the Cascades. I have come to know the trails like the back of my hand. The terrain is a woody, hilly terrain crisscrossed with a number of small streams and dells. I mix and match the trails to come up with routes that take about an hour and a half door to door of walking at a crisp pace.

I love making these daily hikes. It gives me a chance to clear my head or give thought to any problem or business situation I may be working on. It lets me work up a good sweat without being overly exhausting. Since I've started with the near-daily treks I've dropped about 10-15 pounds and feel great.

Even the rains of Tropical Storm Irene didn't keep me from hiking. On that Sunday when the storm was passing through the area I made my regular hike. My wife thought I was crazy but I was curious to see the woods during the storm. The rain wasn't that bad and the wind was manageable but the feeling of being out in nature in those conditions was very exhilarating.

This past week we had some very bad rains. The rainfall was actually worse than that of Irene. I knew that when I started my daily walk but the fact really hit home when I saw a footbridge that was near the start of the hike had been washed out. I knew the trails would be wet and slick and in my mind I planned a route that would have me going uphill in a rocky path where I could step from rock to rock with a return path that was at a higher elevation for the most part but that would have one small stretch that would be a steep downhill on a narrow muddy path that was sure to be slick.

As I was nearing that stretch of path my mind wandered. I started thinking about the Boston Red Sox and how their starting rotation had started to implode. My judgement was particularly harsh on John Lackey who had come to the Red Sox as a high-priced free agent. I was wondering if there was another equally bad contract out there that the Red Sox could swap with similar to the Milton Bradley for Carlos Silva trade. When I couldn't come up with a potential trading partner in my mind I started thinking very harsh thoughts about John Lackey. I know that Lackey's mind was elsewhere this season with his wife battling cancer. "Why don't the Red Sox just donate the amount owed to Lackey to the Jimmy Fund and call it a day," I thought. It was unfair that an organization who was so giving to cancer research would be burdened by a pitcher with a box of rocks for a brain no matter what personal issues he was facing. It was unfair, it was...

That's when I slipped.

The path was slick as I knew it would be but I was too busy thinking nasty thoughts about John Lackey to notice. My feet came out from under me. Only my quickly and instinctively reaching out with my right hand to grasp some thorny brush and bramble kept me from having a really bad, messy fall. I could have ended up truly hurt and all covered in mud. Instead I just had some small cuts and thorns stuck in my right hand.

I had to laugh.

When I started my hike that day I knew exactly where the path would be worst. I knew it would be wet, muddy and slippery. But I was too busy thinking bad thoughts about John Lackey to notice. In my mind it was a sort of instant karma.

I hope I've learned my lesson. I will not let John Lackey get to me.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

OK I'll say it! President Obama reaches out to Palin supporters... John Lackey has a 6.11 ERA. That's hard to fathom. Andrew Miller has a 5.27 ERA. Well that's understandable since he was considered a reclamation project (can we say a failed reclamation project at this point?). Tim Wakefield has 4.95 ERA. I wonder what he must think when he gets skipped in the rotation and has to watch Lackey and Miller make starts... For Wire fans - wonderful interview of McNulty and Freamon... The trade for Adrian Gonzalez may work out to be a better value for the Red Sox than even the one-sided trade that netted them Pedro Martinez. The main reasons I say this is because Gonzalez seems made for Fenway Park and because the team has him under contract for 8-years while Pedro only played 7-seasons in Boston. It should be noted that Pedro averaged 6.8 WAR per year in his Red Sox career (that's why he's a Hall of Famer). If Gonzalez can average 6.8 WAR he'll have won multiple MVP awards... 10 people who switched careers after age 50 with great success... For no reason whatsoever I am going to try and replace the word "hello" with "ahoy" in my everyday vocabulary... I find it interesting that Baseball-reference.com lists Curt Schilling as the most similar pitcher to Pedro Martinez... I'm a complete sucker for any videos of people wearing those flying squirrel wingsuits.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

It would be interesting to combine the Samantha Brown and Survivorman travel shows for a few episodes. I just think that would be funny... Is a John Lackey for Barry Zito trade really crazy? The dollars match up. After this season Lackey is due $15.25 million for 2012, 2013, and 2014. Barry Zito is due $19 million in 2012, $20 million in 2013 and has a $7 million buyout for 2014 (assuming nobody will pick up the $18 million option). Zito is pitching much better than Lackey right now and has a full no-trade contract but who knows? I'm guessing Theo Epstein has at least made the telephone call to check... I'm a fan of the space shuttle and of Brian Malow, the Science Comedian, so linking to this is a no-brainer... People who complain about Jason Kendall and how much money he's made should take a deep breath and realize that he has made $15 million less than JD Drew in his career but been to 3-times as many All-Star games... Pet peeve - sites where the advertisement video is longer than the video I actually want to watch... Rumors swirl that President Obama may replace Joe Biden on the 2012 ticket. How funny would it be if Walter Mondale was chosen as replacement VP? There would be a certain Obama-as-Carter symmetry to that... Very cool - artsy animated GIFs show process of making beer.

Red Sox Magic Number - 89

The Yankees split a double header with the Reds to lower the Red Sox magic number from 90 to 89. I am very happy about that because 90 is the number of feet from home to first base and the past two starts it seems like the Red Sox starters thought they were obligated to just give away that 90 feet - even with the bases loaded! Yesterday John Lackey gave up three runs on a wild pitch, hit batter and walk with the bases loaded. The day before Alfredo Aceves walked the world and gave up two runs on walks with the bases loaded in losing to the Padres. Like I said - the Red Sox starters seemed determined to give up those 90 feet as often as possible. With the number now at 89 and with the John Lackey experience at least another week away - hopefully Boston won't be giving up such soft runs.

John Lackey has really become a lightning rod in Boston. Nobody wants him in the rotation at this point. Everyone wants him to come up with a phantom injury so that Andrew Miller or Tim Wakefield can take his starts. Both of those guys give the team a better chance to win and that's the bottom line.

Almost as big a lightning rod in Boston is JD Drew who has never been fully accepted in Boston. It looks like he may be cooked. It should be recalled that Drew was a big upgrade over fan favorite Trot Nixon who was done in Boston at age 32 but who tried to hold on for two very forgettable years in Cleveland before calling it a day. The problem is at $14 million per year Drew was expected not only to be a big upgrade over Trot Nixon but also be the next Dwight Evans. What I found strange is that at age 35 Drew is showing signs of being all done while back in 1987 at age 35 Dwight Evans posted career highs in HR (34) and RBI (123). I will just leave it at 1987 was the year of the "juiced" baseballs and I think expecting players to perform at the highest levels in their mid and late 30's is a thing of the past.

OK - so why the picture of Dino Radja? Well tonight being the NBA Draft and it being touted as one of the worst drafts talent-wise in years made me think of the 1989 NBA Draft which is recognized as one of the worst of all-time. The best thing that came from that draft as far as I'm concerned was the Celtics taking Dino Radja in the 2nd round. At the local YMCA's I later was given the nickname of "Dino" because my Radja-like offensive repertoire including an almost unstoppable jump hook.