Daisuke Matsuzaka

Tim Britton has a piece on Daisuke Matsuzaka and how Dice-K's next start will not only be the last for the 2012 season but also his last in a Boston uniform.

One thing that Tim doesn't point out is that Dice-K has actually been better away from Fenway in his MLB career (4.76 ERA in 57 Fenway starts vs 4.19 ERA in 58 career road starts). I think Dice-K, if healthy,  could be a very nice pickup for another team. Many teams would be happy will a third or fourth starter posting a 4.19 ERA. And if Dice-K winds up with an NL team - then it is not too unrealistic to see that ERA in the 3.50 range.

I just wouldn't sign him to a longterm deal - just in case I'm completely wrong.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

I'm a little torn in my AFC West rooting now. I like how Tim Tebow drives some people crazy but I also want Romeo Crennel to succeed so he wins the head coaching job in Kansas City... Boston Celtics doctors can detect Jeff Green's thoracic aortic aneurysm but somehow they completely missed Delonte West and his mental illness... 19 Outstanding Words You Should Be Working Into Conversation... Right now Daisuke Matsuzaka has cost the Red Sox $1.9 million per win. By the end of 2012 John Lackey will have also cost the Red Sox $1.9 million per win... Phil Martelli was great in Young Frankenstein... Christopher Hitchens famously debunked the saying "Whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger" in his last column but I have to wonder what he'd have to write about the saying "No pain no gain"?... Speaking of Hitch - I knew Christopher Hitchens better than you... I'm hoping Norv Turner comes out and says that if he had a team as talented as the Jets then he'd have a playoff spot tied up by now. And speaking of the Jets - I agree with the sentiment that if you switched the QB's from the Jets and Giants then the team with Eli Manning would win by 2 TD's... If the government sold its remaining GM stock today taxpayers would lose about $16.5 billion...Who knew? There are more McDonald's in the US then Wendy's, Burger Kings and White Castles combined... Most rational leaders gave thanks at the news of the death of Kim Jong Il but Jimmy Carter sends condolences. He is truly a craven person...

Five Steps to Fix the Mets

The New York Mets have no chance this year but management is so dense that they think their fans don't know that. Here are the five steps I'd take to put the Mets back on the right track.

1. Fire Omar Minaya. He's the worst GM in the game. Assuming that I would be unacceptable - I'd hire Josh Byrnes who was recently let go by Arizona but who would be a great fit here.

2. Fire Jerry Manuel. I would have replaced him with Buck Showalter but the Mets are too late there. Manuel still has to go.

3. Trade Johan Santana and Oliver Perez to the Yankees for catcher Jose Montero, second baseman David Adams, and pitcher Phil Hughes. This would give the Yankees an absolute stud pitcher who would be no stranger to the pressure of pitching in New York while giving the Mets a young stud catcher, a young stud pitcher and the ability to shed about $30 million off the 2011 payroll.

4. Trade outfielder Jason Bay, 25-year old reliever Bobby Parnell and $16 million to the Red Sox for pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, infielder Jed Lowrie and outfielder Josh Reddick. This would require both Bay and Dice-K to approve the deal but I think they would. The $16 million would pay for the 4th year of Bay's contact which was the sticking point with him and the Red Sox in the first place. The Red Sox need an outfielder with punch and bullpen help. Bay also gives the team something to peak the fans interest and keep the ad revenue on NESN from slipping. Dice-K would thrive in the canyon-like expanses of Citi-field and New York has a large Japanese population to help make this deal worth his while.

5. Trade Jose Reyes to Cardinals for OF Jon Jay and RHP Adam Ottavino. As SI's Joe Sheehan points out - shortstop is Saint Louis's real weak point and this deal would address this.

These moves would remove the problems at the top of the organization while giving the team a young core of players plus a new financial flexibility. The moves would drop the payroll down to about $80 million which would let them be major players in the hunt for 2011 free agents Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford. Signing either one of those players would make the Mets players for the 2011 World Series.

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Red Sox fans have about had it with Daisuke Matsuzake. After an injury plagued 2009 season - a season in which Dice-K's conditioning was in question - the Japanese import is 1-1 with a 9.90 ERA.

Fans outside of Boston may not understand the frustration Red Sox fans have with a guy who just 2 seasons ago was 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA. Teams would love to have a guy like that right? Here's the two main reasons the frustration exists:

- Dice-K is a tight rope walker. The year he won 18 games it was not uncommon for Dice-K to walk the bases full, then strike out two batters and then get a fly ball out. Seriously. People were cracking jokes about Dice-K only feeling comfortable with the bases loaded. If a few of those fly balls turned into Texas-leaguers then suddenly he's 12-12 with a 4.10 ERA. Take the other night for example. In the first inning there was a grounder that was 50/50 being a double play. If it is a double play then he's out of the inning with just one run surrendered. He probably gets the win with 2 earned runs for the night. Instead he gave up 4 runs that inning and 5 for the night BUT STILL GOT THE W! Boston fans have enough drama in their lives. They don't need a tightrope walker in their lives to add more seemingly self-created drama.

- If the Red Sox are going to have a guy who can either throw a shutout or bomb completely - the fans would prefer that guy be Tim Wakefield. It's really that simple. Wakefield is a hard working old guy who does more community service than anyone on the team. Dice-K is taking Wake's spot in the rotation. Many fans aren't happy with that.

If anyone can sympathize with this situation it will probably be Philly fans. In 4 seasons with the Red Sox - Daisuke is 38-22 with a 4.14 ERA. In 5 seasons with the Phillies - Cole Hamels 50-36 with a 3.70 ERA. In both cases the numbers don't tell the story. Maybe the two teams could trade tightrope walkers?

If I Were Theo for a Day

There's a glimmer of hope that Jake Peavy could be open to a trade to the Red Sox:

“Jake has a strong preference to stay in the National League. If Jake's ever going to accept anything to the American League – and I don't want this to be taken wrong – I can safely say that it's going to be the Yankees or Red Sox or maybe the Angels. Those teams are going to be in contention and are going to spend money. If there were circumstances where he would be asked to go to the AL, kicking and screaming, those are the three places.”

That being the case - if I were Theo Epstein I'd make a blockbuster offer to the Padres. The offer I'd make would be something like Clay Buchholz, Lars Andersen, Oscar Tejada and maybe two minor prospects for Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez. That's three of the top 10 prospects in the Red Sox organization.

From the Red Sox perspective - Peavy gives the Red Sox perhaps the best starting rotation in baseball (Peavy, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Daisuke Matuzaka - all potential 20-game winners) and Gonzalez would give them a young power bat for the middle of the order. Gonzalez is exactly the type of hitter the Red Sox are trying to get via their offers to Mark Teixeira but he would come without the 7-year plus mega deal. They would be giving up top prospects but all of them are blocked - Buchholz by Peavy, Andersen by Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis. Tejada is blocked by Jed Lowrie.

From the Padres perspective - they would be able to shave $12.5 million off the 2009 payroll. They would also get two MLB ready players who could be stars and one player who is about a year away. The offer I propose above is perhaps the best offer the Padres would see from anyone.

I like the idea of including Buchholz because he originally came to the Red Sox as the compensation pick for losing Pedro Martinez. I like the symmetry of losing one Cy Young Aw ard winner eventually leading to the Red Sox getting another.

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched a gem last night. Oh I know it's not what may normally be considered a gem but a gem it was. I am amazed how many national writers can't see the forest through the trees when it comes to Dice-K. All they see is the walks - take Lee Jenkins article on SI.com this morning as an example. Jenkins talks about the walks but he never mentions once the reason for the nibbling. Not once!

Well let me explain. Dice-K nibbles because he will not give up a home run. He'd rather nibble on a 3-2 count with men on first and second than groove a fastball just to get a strike and give up a 3-run home run instead. IT'S ALL ABOUT THE HOME RUNS!

Last season Dice-K gave up 25 dingers at a rate of one per every 8.2 innings pitched. This year he only gave up 12 HR at a rate of one per every 14 innings pitched. That a reduction in HR of 41%! That why his ERA when from 4.40 last year to just 2.90 this season (a reduction of 34% year over year).

So yes the walks are up this year - 5 walks per 9 innings pitched vs. 3.5 walks per 9 innings pitched last season - but the home runs are down. And that has made all the difference.

Too bad the experts can't figure that out.

Dice-K and Walks

Daisuke Matsuzaka leads the AL in wins with 8 and only 4 starters with at least 5 starts under their belts have a lower ERA than Dice-K's 2.40. You would think everyone would be happy with that performance but you would be wrong.

Dice-K also happens to lead the league in walks with 38 and many people are harping on that figure. I say that the people complaining about Dice-K's walks are the same people who would look a gift horse in the mouth and complain about its bad breath. The fact is 55% of those walks have come with the bases empty. Dice-K sometimes nibbles and that can be frustrating to watch but as Dice-K's record and ERA attest - walks may be frustrating but they are not fatal.

Last year Dice-K's big problem was giving up home runs. He gave up 25 HR in 32 starts (1 HR every 8.2 innings). This year Dice-K has only given up 4 HR in 60 IP (1 HR every 15 innings). Effectively he has cut his HR allowed in half and by doing so he has dropped his ERA by 2 whole runs. Most likely he has accomplished this by not giving players a pitch to hit - especially with the bases empty. Last year 15 of his 25 HR allowed came with nobody on base. This year Dice-K has allowed just 2 HR with the bases empty.

I have yet to hear any of the people complaining about Dice-K's high walk total mention these facts.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

At one time Edwin Jackson was THE untouchable pitching prospect in baseball. The Dodgers wouldn't dare trade him for anyone (including Nomar Garciaparra when Nomar was in his prime). Now it seems Jackson isn't well thought of enough to start for Tampa Bay. A cautionary tale about counting on "can't miss" pitching prospects if ever there was one. Note: I should mention that I made pretty good money betting the over in any game Jackson started last year.... Interesting look at Troy Percival's comeback by Jason Stark. Percival could be a decent sleeper pick in fantasy baseball for those so inclined... Congratulations to Daisuke Matsuzaka and his wife Tomoyo on the birth of their second child - a boy. It now looks like Dice-K will pitch the Red Sox's Opening Day game in Japan. I imagine the ovation Dice-K will receive will be tremendous. Once again congratulations (as it Dice-K or his wife will read this)... Do you think the Mariners wish they had a do-over? Seattle released Horacio Ramirez who they traded Rafael Soriano for in December of 2006. Soriano will be the closer for the Braves this season. Hard to imagine but Ramirez's high water mark as a professional will probably be his rookie year when he went 12-4 with a 4.00 ERA.

Red Sox Magic Number - 6

The Red Sox clinched a playoff berth last night and reduced their magic number to win the AL East to 6 games.

In Boston the number 6 means Bill Russell who is the greatest basketball player of all-time. Playing a team sport is all about winning championships and Russell won 11 in his 13 years with the Celtics. He also won 2 National college basketball championships at the University of San Francisco (1955 and 1956) plus an Olympic Gold Medal at the 1956 Olympics. The only team that might have been able to win without him was the Olympic team.

The Red Sox two big offseason acquisitions continue to be enigmas.

JD Drew is hitting .309 with a .992 OPS and 3 HR plus 10 RBI in September. Is this the real JD Drew or is Drew just feeling relaxed now that Mike Lowell has laid claim to the 5-spot in the batting order? Meanwhile Daisuke Matsuzaka is 1-1 with an 11.20 ERA in 3 September starts. It is worrisome that after Josh Beckett - the Red Sox have no sure thing in their starting pitching right now. Jon Lester is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in 4 September starts. Could the Red Sox possibly replace Dice-K with Lester in the short 3-man (probably) playoff pitching rotation?

Red Sox Magic Number - 18

With the Yankees losing to the Mariners and the Red Sox beating Toronto - the Red Sox magic number is now 18.

When I was a kid we had an electric organ (the precursor to the electric keyboard) and I learned to play two songs on it. The two songs were Amazing Grace and Alice Cooper's I'm Eighteen. Just thought I'd toss that out there. I also should mention the fact that Alice Cooper released the song I'm Eighteen in 1971 when Cooper was 23-years old.

Daisuke Matsuzaka got the win against the Blue Jays to improve to 14-11 with a 4.11 ERA on the season. Dice-K also happens to wear the uniform number 18. There's a little bit of serendipity there. However, Dice-K isn't the Red Sox number 18 I wanted to say something about. I wanted to mention Ken Brett.

Ken Brett is mostly remembered today as the brother of Hall of Famer George Brett but it should be remembered that he was as highly anticipated a player as Dice-K when he was drafted with the 4th overall pick in the 1966 baseball draft. Brett was just 18 at the time he made his debut with the Sox (there's that number again). When the Red Sox drafted him - there was some debate as to whether they should make Brett a pitcher or an outfielder. It is very possible that the Red Sox made the wrong choice.

Ken Brett finished his career with an ERA+ of 93 - which means he was slightly below average as a pitcher (average being 100). As a hitter Brett had an OPS+ of 94 - which means he was slightly below average for a hitter but his OPS+ was better than his ERA+. Brett also averaged a HR every 34.7 at bats. His power and overall batting was excellent for a pitcher and would have been even better if he concentrated on it full time like his brother George.

Ken Brett died 4 years ago of brain cancer. He was 53.

Top 5 - 2007 AL ROY

Here's how I see the 2007 AL Rookie of the Year:

1. Dustin Pedroia Red Sox
2. Reggie Willits Angels
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka Red Sox
4. Brian Bannister Royals
5. (tie) Jeremy Guthrie Orioles (tie) Hideki Okajima Red Sox

Here is my thinking on how I ranked the players:

Just like how position players normally get many more votes in MVP voting - there is also a weighted bias toward position players in the ROY voting as well. Pedroia gets the top nod because he's played since Opening Day and he has an 86 point advantage in OPS over Willits among other reasons. Pedroia may be hurt by the fact that he has two teammates in the running for the award as well as the fact that there are 4 legitimate East Coast candidates whereas Willits just has Bannister of the Royals west of the Mississippi.

I have Dice-K ranked above Bannister and Guthrie because he is far ahead in starts, IP and K's. Those 5 extra starts Dice-K has over Bannister and Guthrie have lots of value to me. Ask yourself if Bannister and Guthrie had those 5 extra starts - what are the odds that they would have been bombed in one of those starts and raised their ERA's above 4.00? I tend to value IP as one of best indicators of a pitcher's value to a team.

Dice K for Cy Young?

The way that Daisuke Matsuzaka has been pitching lately is making me think that there is a good chance that he could accomplish something that has not been done in baseball since Fernando Valenzuela in 1981. That year Fernando won both the Rookie of the Year award and the Cy Young award.

Dice K is 10-5 with a 3.53 ERA but those numbers don't tell the story of how dominant he has been recently. In his last 5 starts Matsuzaka has averaged 7 innings, 8.6 strikeouts, 3.8 hits with an ERA of just 1.03 in those starts. In that time he has also dropped his season ERA by almost a run - from 4.52 on June 10th to his current 3.53.

It is quite possible that Dice K has acclimated himself to playing in the US and we are now starting to see what he's capable of. And what Matsuzaka is capable of is starting to remind people of Pedro Martinez in his prime.

He's been that good.

The Red Sox and Dice K Have Wa

"Wa" is the Japanese concept and practice of group harmony (I know this because I am currently reading Robert Whiting's book on Japanese baseball You Gotta Have Wa). In America it is said that winning breeds good team chemistry and the Red Sox with a trio of 26-year old pitchers in Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jonathan Papelbon, and Josh Beckett are poised to have both "wa" and good team chemistry for years to come.

Yesterday was Daisuke Matsuzaka's coming out party and he did not disappoint - proving he was indeed the real deal by pitching 7 innings of one-run ball with 10 strikeouts against the Kansas City Royals.

It seems to me that a trio of young talent like the Red Sox 26-year olds has not been assembled by a major league team since the Atlanta Braves trotted out 27-year old Greg Maddux, 27-year old Tom Glavine and 26-year old John Smoltz in 1993. The Atlanta trio are all possible Hall of Famers (well two locks for the Hall of Fame and one probable) and it would be both overly optimistic and presumptuous to put the Boston trio in the same category as the Atlanta trio. However, when the Red Sox are winning - no phrase probably describes Red Sox fans better than "overly optimistic and presumptuous."

Let me give the perfect example of this.

Last night my wife and kids had Holy Thursday activities at the church so I was left to fend for myself for dinner. So I headed off to a local restaurant for a good meal, some Keno and a few beers. While enjoying my scallops and shrimp over angel hair pasta I overhead a guy at the next table say, "Any discussion about the league MVP has to include JD Drew." Fork of food half-way to my mouth - I couldn't help but stop and look at him. The funny thing is that the other guys at his table all just nodded their head. Talk about overly optimistic and presumptuous.

Let me finish by going back to the 1993 Atlanta trio versus the current Red Sox trio. The Braves trio have a combined 818 wins and they were the core of a team that won their division every year like clockwork. However, what the Red Sox pitchers lack in talent compared to the Braves trio can be made up by the fact that the Red Sox ownership is willing to spend big money to field the best team possible - something that could not be said about the budget conscious Braves. If the Braves won because of "wa" and talent - then hopefully the Red Sox will win because of "wa", talent and the money that comes from one of the deepest revenue streams in all of sports.

Of course it would be overly optimistic and presumptuous to talk about this bright future without acknowledging perhaps the biggest difference between the 1993 Braves and today's Red Sox team. The Braves weren't in the same division as the Yankees.