Top 5 - 2007 AL ROY

Here's how I see the 2007 AL Rookie of the Year:

1. Dustin Pedroia Red Sox
2. Reggie Willits Angels
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka Red Sox
4. Brian Bannister Royals
5. (tie) Jeremy Guthrie Orioles (tie) Hideki Okajima Red Sox

Here is my thinking on how I ranked the players:

Just like how position players normally get many more votes in MVP voting - there is also a weighted bias toward position players in the ROY voting as well. Pedroia gets the top nod because he's played since Opening Day and he has an 86 point advantage in OPS over Willits among other reasons. Pedroia may be hurt by the fact that he has two teammates in the running for the award as well as the fact that there are 4 legitimate East Coast candidates whereas Willits just has Bannister of the Royals west of the Mississippi.

I have Dice-K ranked above Bannister and Guthrie because he is far ahead in starts, IP and K's. Those 5 extra starts Dice-K has over Bannister and Guthrie have lots of value to me. Ask yourself if Bannister and Guthrie had those 5 extra starts - what are the odds that they would have been bombed in one of those starts and raised their ERA's above 4.00? I tend to value IP as one of best indicators of a pitcher's value to a team.