Woe is the Red Sox

OMG! The Red Sox have lost their first six games! I blame myself. This is all my fault. In my hubris I started a Magic Number countdown before the first game was even played. Announcing your plans is a great way to make God laugh.

Of course I'm kidding about being worried about the Red Sox. I'll leave that to the national media and jackasses like Dan Shaughnessy who is probably already hard at work on his new book The Curse of Jason Bay.

I saw a few people make this analogy the other day but if you compared where we are in the baseball season to where you would be in an NFL season - the Red Sox are at the NFL equivalent of halftime of the first game of the season. Would people be panicking if the Patriots were losing 7-3 at half of the first game?

Speaking of Jason Bay - I recently looked at the trade that brought Bay to the Red Sox and I think that may end up being Theo Epstein's masterpiece. Bay came to the Red Sox as part of a 3-team trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Los Angeles Dodgers who sent Bryan Morris (minors) and Andy LaRoche to the Pirates while the Red Sox sent Manny Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers plus Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Red Sox got a season and a half of Top 10 MVP caliber play out of Bay and in exchange they gave up Craig Hansen (who is now out of baseball), Brandon Moss (who would have no place in the Red Sox organization) and Manny Ramirez. During Bay's season and a half with the Red Sox he hit 45 HR and had 156 RBI. During that same period Manny had 36 HR and 116 RBI. Clear win for Team Theo.

Not only that but by letting Jason Bay walk as a free agent the Red Sox ending up getting pitching prospect Anthony Ranaudo as compensation for losing Bay to the Mets. Ranaudo may turn out to be a bust but some scouts have his upside comparable as Chris Carpenter.

So the national media may expect Red Sox fans to be wearing sack cloth and ashes but excuse me if I pass on that.

Five Steps to Fix the Mets

The New York Mets have no chance this year but management is so dense that they think their fans don't know that. Here are the five steps I'd take to put the Mets back on the right track.

1. Fire Omar Minaya. He's the worst GM in the game. Assuming that I would be unacceptable - I'd hire Josh Byrnes who was recently let go by Arizona but who would be a great fit here.

2. Fire Jerry Manuel. I would have replaced him with Buck Showalter but the Mets are too late there. Manuel still has to go.

3. Trade Johan Santana and Oliver Perez to the Yankees for catcher Jose Montero, second baseman David Adams, and pitcher Phil Hughes. This would give the Yankees an absolute stud pitcher who would be no stranger to the pressure of pitching in New York while giving the Mets a young stud catcher, a young stud pitcher and the ability to shed about $30 million off the 2011 payroll.

4. Trade outfielder Jason Bay, 25-year old reliever Bobby Parnell and $16 million to the Red Sox for pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, infielder Jed Lowrie and outfielder Josh Reddick. This would require both Bay and Dice-K to approve the deal but I think they would. The $16 million would pay for the 4th year of Bay's contact which was the sticking point with him and the Red Sox in the first place. The Red Sox need an outfielder with punch and bullpen help. Bay also gives the team something to peak the fans interest and keep the ad revenue on NESN from slipping. Dice-K would thrive in the canyon-like expanses of Citi-field and New York has a large Japanese population to help make this deal worth his while.

5. Trade Jose Reyes to Cardinals for OF Jon Jay and RHP Adam Ottavino. As SI's Joe Sheehan points out - shortstop is Saint Louis's real weak point and this deal would address this.

These moves would remove the problems at the top of the organization while giving the team a young core of players plus a new financial flexibility. The moves would drop the payroll down to about $80 million which would let them be major players in the hunt for 2011 free agents Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford. Signing either one of those players would make the Mets players for the 2011 World Series.

Player Comparison

I just found this amusing:

Jason Bay 2010 - .261 BA / .352 OBP / .410 SLG / .762 OPS
Daniel Nava 2010 - .285 BA / .385 OBP / .456 SLG / .840 OPS

This is a perfect example of a small sample size but I'm amused by the thought that if Bay was putting up Nava's numbers in Boston or New York then people would be OK with him. If Bay was putting up the numbers he has with the Mets in Boston - the talk shows would be screaming for Theo to replace him and crucifying Theo for re-signing him in the first place.

EDIT: Just saw this tweet:

@GlobeChadFinn Jason Bay has two fewer homers than Bill Hall and as many as Darnell McDonald.

Player Comparison

Let's compare two players:

Player A - 24 HR / .250 BA / .342 OBP / 111 OPS+ / 246 TB
Player B - 36 HR / .267 BA / .384 OBP / 134 OPS+ / 285 TB

Player A is Mike Cameron and Player B is Jason Bay. Clearly Bay's offensive numbers are better across the board than Cameron's. Some players benefit greatly from Fenway Park's Green Monster and clearly the Red Sox front office feel that Mike Cameron is one of those players. It is reasonable to expect an increase in HR from Cameron along with an increase in doubles (wall-ball hits combined with Cameron's speed). Probably positive thinking on my part but I really can foresee Cameron coming close to matching Jason Bay's total base mark from last season.

EDIT: Very interesting comparison of Bay and Cameron done a couple of months ago. The bottom line conclusion they drew was that Cameron was actually the better overall value.

Dan Uggla for Jason Bay?

Interesting thought - why not replace Jason Bay with Dan Uggla?

I don't like the fact that Uggla is a strikeout machine who averages a K per game (1 SO per 4.4 plate appearance) but that's only slightly worse than Bay. His OPS+ of 114, however, is 17 points worse than Bay's career 131 mark. The interesting split is Uggla's career .847 OPS against righties. Maybe a platoon is in order?

I like this idea but I don't see it as a Plan A or Plan B for the Red Sox. I still think Plan A is to re-sign Jason Bay. This is something to keep in the back of the mind though.

Jason Bay

Very cool first person account of attending the All-Star game by Jason Bay. I loved this part:

Or coming to realize that they just played a recording of the Canadian National Anthem instead of having somebody come in and sing it. That seemed strange, that they couldn’t find anybody in St. Louis who knew ‘Oh Canada.’ Morneau and I could have done it if they really needed somebody.

The bit about Ichiro was also funny. I'm guessing that Ichiro used a different word than "mess".

Manny Who?

During the Red Sox current 9-game winning streak they have a team OPS of 1.025. That's the same OPS Manny Ramirez has for the season.

Going into today's action - Manny was 19th in the major leagues in OPS. Jason Bay - Manny's hopefully long term replacement - is 5th in all of baseball with a 1.135 OPS. Kevin Youkilis leads everyone with a mark of 1.345.

Bay vs Moss

Everyone wants to compare Jason Bay's production so far in a Red Sox uniform to what Manny Ramirez has done with the Dodgers. What about Brandon Moss though? Check out these numbers:

Moss - .333 BA / 1 R / 1 HR / 3 RBI
Bay - .313 BA / 6 R / 1 HR / 4 RBI

These comparisons don't really mean much but they are interesting to consider.

The Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers GM Jon Daniels has a contract through the 2011 season. The way I see it - Daniels is safe (as long as there is no major collapse) until he gets to field "his" team in 2010.

The Rangers are solid up the middle. They have Gerald Laid at catcher; Ian Kinsler at 2nd (locked up till 2013); Michael Young at short (also locked up till 2013) and Josh Hamilton in centerfield. In addition David Murphy and Jarrod Saltalamacchia look like they will be productive low-cost players in the starting nine.

That leaves 3rd base, a corner outfielder and a 1st / DH. Hopefully Chris Davis who has hit 5 HR in 14 games this year in Arlington will be the answer at 3rd. The Texas farm system is getting better and maybe the holes can be filled by prospects like Chris Davis. However, to become a playoff threat team - some free agents will need to be signed. But where will that money come from?

Consider the situation of the following players:

Kevin Millwood is the highest paid Ranger but his contract is actually very favorable to Texas. Millwood has to pitch 273 inning between this season and next (or 180 innings next season) or the Rangers can opt out of the last year of the deal ($12 million in 2010). Who knows though? $12 million may be the going rate for a 180 IP per year pitcher with a league average ERA.

Vicente Padilla also has a $12 million 2010 option. So basically if neither pitcher is performing up to club expectations then the team can save more than a third of their payroll and start anew for new starters.

Hank Blalock has a team option of $6.2 million for 2009. Unless Blalock catches fire in the second half - I don't see the Rangers picking up that option. You can't catch fire from the DL.

That's over $30 million of payroll that can be shed by the time the 2010 season comes around.

If I were in Jon Daniels shoes' I would target the following 3 free agents to field as competitive team as possible in 2010.

1. Derek Lowe - free agent after this season. His sinkerball could be just the right pitch in the heat of Arlington.

2. Jason Bay - free agent after the 2009 season. He would add another big bat to an already potent line-up.

3. Justin Duchscherer - free agent after 2009 season. This has been Duchscherer's breakout season but I think he's the real deal.

Those three players would cost more than the $30 million that was just trimmed but it would be worth it. Justin Duchscherer and Derek Lowe at the top of the rotation with that potent Ranger line-up would make the Rangers a very competitive team come 2010.

Top 5 - Canadian Born Baseball Players

In honor of Canada Day - here are who I consider the Top 5 baseball players born in Canada.

1. Fergie Jenkins - Hall of Fame pitcher - 284 career wins and 1971 Cy Young Award winner
2. Larry Walker - 1997 NL MVP and 7 time Gold Glove winner
3. Justin Morneau - 2006 AL MVP
4. Eric Gagne - 2003 Cy Young Winner
5. Jason Bay - 134 HR and counting

Honorable mention goes to Russel Martin - the up and coming catcher for the Dodgers. Also it should be noted that blue collar Matt Stairs is second all-time on the HR by Canadians list with 249 and counting (Larry Walker is first with 383).

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

If you added the salaries of all of the projected starting pitchers for the Pirates with the exception of Matt Morris and multiplied that number by 6 - you still would not have what the Pirates are paying Matt Morris all by himself. In fact you'd still have over $1 million left over. How sick is that?... I'm not sure if there is any truth to the rumor that Thoracic Outlet Syndrome will be renamed Ranger's Disease. Pitcher John Rheinecker has been diagnosed with the ailment which also sidelined Hank Blalock last season. That's just strange... The most interesting thing about the Pirates is the debate over who will be traded first - Jason Bay or Jack Wilson.... Many people are saying that this is the year that Tampa Bay doesn't finish last in the AL East and I agree with that. In fact I think the talent level on the team is such that if they were in the NL Central that they just could be the favorites for that division... Just saying but I think Ryan Church will put up better numbers this year for the Mets than Jason Bay will post for the Pirates. Just a gut feel... Tampa Bay may have changed their name officially from the Devil Rays to just the Rays but their Single A minor league team still retains the old name - the Vero Beach Devil Rays. Strange...

Curt Schilling

Curt Schilling has a very interesting blog called 38Pitches.

In his last Q&A session Schilling mentions two subjects I'd like to touch on.

First Schilling says that he doesn't consider himself a Hall of Fame Player. I've said before that if Schilling gets two a combined 30 wins over the next two seasons that he should get into the Hall of Fame. Schilling would be hard-pressed to finish his career in the top 50 in wins but he's already over 3,000 strikeouts (3,015 to be exact) and his post-season heroics for two championship teams teams (one from each coast) should help pave the way to Cooperstown.

However, if Schilling keeps coming out and saying that he's not a Hall of Fame player - then he gives the sportswriters who don't like him the perfect out for not voting for him. "Hey Curt Schilling himself said he doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame" will be the rallying mantra of those who don't like Curt.

Maybe more surprising (and troubling to me at least) was the fact that Schilling was asked to name the best players by position in baseball today and he was loyal to Jason Varitek and chose him as the catcher and he also picked David Ortiz as DH (no surprise there). But for left field Schilling choose Jason Bay of the Pirates over teammate Manny Ramirez. What does Schilling have against Manny who may be a distraction but whose bat has won many a game for the Red Sox and many for Schilling? (Remember it was Manny who was named MVP for the 2004 World Series - hitting .412 with a 1.088 OPS in the October classic.)

Baseball-Reference.com has Bay's 162 game averages as the following:

Bay - .292 BA / 33 HR / 105 RBI / .936 OPS

Baseball-Reference.com has Manny's 162 game averages as:

Manny - .314 BA / 42 HR / 135 RBI / 1.011 OPS

Manny is clearly the better hitter. In real production - the past three years Manny has out homered Bay (113 to 93) and has 83 more RBI in that span (as well as better BA, OBP, SLG and OPS numbers). Sure Bay is a better defender and base-runner but it just bothers me that Schilling skipped over the teammate whose bat is central to any success the Red Sox have had or will have.