Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Some day soon Josh Hamilton's life will be immortalized by a Country and Western song. There may even be a whole CD of ballads about Hamilton... Would the Mets do a Johan Santana for Clay Buchholz swap? The Mets would get a young pitcher under control for years and also shed a tremendous amount of cash. The Red Sox would get an ace under contract for at least this season and next... Donald Trump should legally add an "O" to the end of his name to make his "brand" more appealing to Europeans. Besides I just like the idea of calling him Donald Trumpo... In June of 2006 - Barack Obama was a 30-1 shot to win the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination. That would have been a good bet... Stunt Custard would be a good name for a band (or a fantasy football name)... Curt Schilling should have put it on the Underhill's bill... Airport taco should be slang for something - or it could be a good fantasy football name...

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Traditionally New Year's Day was THE big day for college bowl games. This year - NO bowl games at all - not even a lousy Beef O Brady bowl. Tradition don't mean shit to the NCAA. Only TV money is important to those humunculuses in suits... This morning I was thinking that Chris Young would be a good signing for the Red Sox but then I saw that this thought and the reasoning behind it was already recently voiced... I wonder how former Patriots LB Ted Johnson is doing? I hope his early Alzheimer's and concussion related issues haven't worsened... Interesting - Christopher Hitchens a religious man? Father Barron says "Yes"... Huston Street is the highest paid player on the Padres but that should change after Carlos Quentin's arbitration is squared away. It just strikes me as strange that the two biggest salaries on any MLB payroll would come via trade weeks apart... "There are two kinds of people in his up-tight world: his victims and his women. And sometimes you can't tell them apart." That's the tagline from the 1967 Lee Marvin movie Point Blank. Can you imagine that tagline being used for a movie today?... Of course a contract has yet to be signed and who knows Scott Boras could pull a rabbit out of his hat but I think the most overlooked story this Hot Stove Winter is how Boras screwed over Ryan Madson trying to squeeze a 4th year out of the Phillies. Do you think Madson would be happy with a 3-year $33 million deal about now?... Washington fired its entire defensive staff including coordinator Nick Holt following the Alamo Bowl loss... The Texas Rangers have a prospect named Rougned Odor. I love that name! I just hope someone has that sense to make his walk-up music That Smell by Lynyrd Skynyrd... Imagine planning to go to Buffalo Wild Wings to watch your favorite team play its bowl game only to be turned away because Rick Santorum is taking up all the available seating with his entourage and press coverage? I doubt you'd be inclined to vote for Santorum after that. And I have to say that the phrase "Santorum found at Buffalo Wild Wings" sounds very much like a health code violation... Just a reminder - when the Twins traded Johan Santana to the Mets they got prospects Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey in the deal. How's that working out for ya Twins fans?

The Trades You Don't Make

"Johan Santana to the Red Sox is all but done. Jon Lester, a center fielder, Justin Masterson and Ryan Kalish are the package." Will Carroll 12/5/07

Chances are Will Carroll was just full of crap and the above deal was some GM just feeding him a jape. Carroll blocked me on Twitter cause I called him on his crap once. But the journalistic ethics of Will Carroll are not why I dredged up this old chestnut. The reason I brought this up is to praise Theo Epstein and the Boston Red Sox.

Can you imagine how the Twins would be doing if the above trade was actually made? Jon Lester is 6-1 with a 3.68 ERA while Justin Masterson is 5-2 with a 2.50 ERA. Those 11 combined wins are almost as many as the Twins have managed all season (15). The centerfielder mentioned would have been either Coco Crisp or Jacoby Ellsbury.

In actuality Johan Santana was traded by the Twins to the Mets for Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey. Quite a big difference isn't it?

Three years later the only GM in this deal who looks good is Theo Epstein. For the deal he never made - or possible never even discussed.

Five Steps to Fix the Mets

The New York Mets have no chance this year but management is so dense that they think their fans don't know that. Here are the five steps I'd take to put the Mets back on the right track.

1. Fire Omar Minaya. He's the worst GM in the game. Assuming that I would be unacceptable - I'd hire Josh Byrnes who was recently let go by Arizona but who would be a great fit here.

2. Fire Jerry Manuel. I would have replaced him with Buck Showalter but the Mets are too late there. Manuel still has to go.

3. Trade Johan Santana and Oliver Perez to the Yankees for catcher Jose Montero, second baseman David Adams, and pitcher Phil Hughes. This would give the Yankees an absolute stud pitcher who would be no stranger to the pressure of pitching in New York while giving the Mets a young stud catcher, a young stud pitcher and the ability to shed about $30 million off the 2011 payroll.

4. Trade outfielder Jason Bay, 25-year old reliever Bobby Parnell and $16 million to the Red Sox for pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, infielder Jed Lowrie and outfielder Josh Reddick. This would require both Bay and Dice-K to approve the deal but I think they would. The $16 million would pay for the 4th year of Bay's contact which was the sticking point with him and the Red Sox in the first place. The Red Sox need an outfielder with punch and bullpen help. Bay also gives the team something to peak the fans interest and keep the ad revenue on NESN from slipping. Dice-K would thrive in the canyon-like expanses of Citi-field and New York has a large Japanese population to help make this deal worth his while.

5. Trade Jose Reyes to Cardinals for OF Jon Jay and RHP Adam Ottavino. As SI's Joe Sheehan points out - shortstop is Saint Louis's real weak point and this deal would address this.

These moves would remove the problems at the top of the organization while giving the team a young core of players plus a new financial flexibility. The moves would drop the payroll down to about $80 million which would let them be major players in the hunt for 2011 free agents Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford. Signing either one of those players would make the Mets players for the 2011 World Series.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Ever noticed that nobody ever gets killed on the show Burn Notice? I think it would be a much better show if one the bad guys actually died a gruesome-had-it-coming death every once in a while... After shutting out the Rockies yesterday - the only team the Mets' Johan Santana has not faced is the Minnesota Twins - which is understandable if you think about it for a minute... I still wonder what impact the awful contracts of Jake Westbrook and Kerry Wood had on the decision of the Indians to deal Cliff Lee. Westbrook is on the books for $11 million next year while Wood will waste up $10.5 million of salary... Quote of the Day: "I try to live in the now- where the ghosts of old wrongs do not abide." Captain Nemo - from the movie League of Extraordinary Gentlemen... "The Grotto for People in Love" would be a good name for a bar. I wouldn't go to such a place but it would be a good name nonetheless... WTF? Ted Keith of SI writes a piece on the Phillies rotation with Cliff Lee and neglects to mention Joe Blanton even once...

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Really? Roy Halladay's real name is Harry Leroy Halladay. Harry Halladay? Yeah really... How funny is it that PhilliesNation.com sponsors the Johan Santana page on baseball-reference.com? I find it very funny!... With his loss today - John Smoltz of the Red Sox tied George Bradley for 154th place on the all-time list with 151 losses. George Bradley once lost 40 games in 1879 playing for the Troy Trojans. Wow - 40 games! Times sure have changed.... If John Smoltz happens to ever win another game for the Red Sox - he'll tie Chief Bender for 88th place on the all-time wins list with 212 wins. Though John Smoltz is widely acknowledged as playoff tough - Chief Bender pitched 3 complete games in the 1911 World series. That's playoff impressive... I don' understand that KGB service. Is it for people too stupid or lazy to use Google or Bing?... The Tigers Edwin Jackson needs just 4 more to match his total from last season. Truly a tale of two seasons...

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Interesting piece by Bill James regarding steroids and the HOF. I agree with James that steroids, hormones and other wonder drugs will most likely be a large part of our culture in the future. However, his talk of wonder drugs and sexuality make me think of Aldous Huxley and his vision of the future in Brave New World. That never came to be. Overall I find James' logic to be flawed... OJ said wear Spot-bilt's or he'd kill our moms... Cool blog - Sexy Archaeology. $500 million treasures, killer asteroids, and 4,000 year old keg parties - and that's just the latest post... Since being traded to the Mets - Johan Santana has been 27-15 with a 2.74 ERA in the DH-less NL. During that same time Jon Lester has been 24-13 with a 3.45 ERA in the tough AL East. Given the age difference and salary difference - I don't think I would trade Lester for Santana straight up... Heh heh- OJ went bad only after he switched from Dingo's to Bruno Magli's... Today should have been Walter Payton's 55th birthday... Heh heh - failure to thrive, and fatigue... Today used to be the Feast of Saint Christopher in the Catholic Church. You may have guessed that St. Christopher would logically be very close to my heart...

Thoughts on the NL All-Star Roster

You can find the full NL roster here.

Some thoughts on the NL selections. You could argue that Benjie Molina is having a better season than his brother Yadier but that's a coin flip at best and what the heck - they are keeping it in the family. Orlando Hudson started off hot but has really cooled off. He's probably getting the Tim Wakefield good guy slot.

Was Cincinnati's Francisco Cordero more deserving than teammate Johnny Cueto or did Cuerto get stuck because of the arbitrary ratio of starters to closers? Ryan Franklin's not one of the 10 best pitchers in the NL. Johan Santana made the team based upon past performance but adding him or Ryan Franklin probably cost Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo a spot on the roster.

An argument could be made that Mark Reynolds and Pablo Sandoval are more deserving than Ryan Zimmerman but Zimmerman is the Nationals sole representative and all three players are very close in value. There some slim pickens for outfield in the NL - isn't there? You could argue Matt Kemp over Hunter Pence but that just points out how thin the position is. That will have to boost Matt Holliday's trade value.

I'm still amused at the fact that the Cubs with their $135 million payroll have to use the "every team gets a representative" rule to get Ted Lilly on the roster.

Pick of the Day

My first choice was Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals against San Francisco but the price of -$200 was just too high. Almost as good a pick is Johan Santana and the Mets looking to halt a 4-game losing skid.

Today's pick of the day (POTD) is the Mets -$130 at Milwaukee (odds via Bodog).

POTD record - 5-1 overall with a plus $395 mythical dollar amount.

Just Sayin'

Compare these two players:

Player A: 16 GS / 7-6 / 107.7 IP / 2.92 ERA / 139 ERA+
Player B: 17 GS / 6-2 / 103.7 IP / 3.13 ERA / 138 ERA+

Figured it out yet? More hints:

Player A: 95 SO / 103 H / 35 ER / 29-years old
Player B: 65 SO / 99 H / 36 ER / 24-years old

Player A is of course Johan Santana and Player B is Jon Lester. I wonder how Twins fans feel when they see Lester pitching or Jacoby Ellsbury playing the outfield. I know how I would feel and it wouldn't be very charitable towards the Twins GM. I'm guessing that the Red Sox weren't ever really serious about making any trade for Santana though.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

Brad Wilkerson had me fooled. I thought he'd be productive this year. Now he's hitting just .185 in 15 games for Toronto and now I'm thinking that there is probably at least one pitcher on the Blue Jays who could do better than that... There are 15 1st basemen in baseball who had a better OPS than Mark Teixeira going into the night's action, 18 who had more HR, and 8 who had more RBI but it will still be Teixeira who will cash in big at the end of the season... Ex-Red Sox outfielder David Murphy leads the AL in doubles with 19. Thanks Eric Gagne! (Then again - Murphy probably wouldn't have gotten a chance in Boston.)... Dan Uggla may be the most under-rated player in baseball... Only 3 of the top 21 HR hitters in baseball are from the American League so far this season. I wonder why that is?... Johan Santana had only 7 wild pitches all of last season. This year with the Mets he's already matched that number. I'm guessing that's just part of the problem he's running into in New York...

Jon Lester

Last night Jon Lester was just awesome in every meaning of the word. I've been skeptical of his talent ceiling in the past but I'm not afraid to say when I have been wrong. Jon Lester is a stud. Consider the following:

Lester 3-2 / 3.41 ERA / 66 IP / 42 SO
Santana 5-2 / 3.30 ERA / 60 IP / 57 SO

Can there be any argument that the Red Sox did the right thing in not trading Jon Lester in a package for Johan Santana? Also consider that Lester is just 24 and will make just $421,500 this year while Santana is 29 and will cost the Mets $19 million this season.

Awesome. Just awesome.

Johan Santana Trade

It looks like Johan Santana is getting traded to the Mets (pending physical and the Mets signing Santana to an extension). The Twins will be receiving outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra in exchange for Santana.

It seems many people think that this deal is less than what the Twins could have gotten if they had made a deal with the Red Sox or Yankees at the Winter Meetings. I agree.

The Transaction Guy has a nice first look at the trade.

My first thought was to wonder how this trade stacks up to some other recent blockbuster trades for Ace starters.

The Twins have traded a Cy Young winning pitcher to the Mets in the past. In 1989 they traded Frank Viola to the Mets in a 5 for 1 trade. Of the 5 the Twins got back in exchange only Rick Aguilera and Kevin Tapani were worth it. David West, Tim Drummond and Jack Savage - not so much. Aguilera made 3 All-Star teams for the Twins while Frankie V won 20 games in his first season in Flushing, was below average in his second season and was in Boston by year 3.

In 1997 the Expos traded Cy Young winner Pedro Martinez to Boston for Carl Pavano and Tony Armas. This was a huge one sided win for the Red Sox. This is the cautionary tale the Twins are afraid of duplicating with the Santana deal.

It is tough to compare the Santana deal to the deal that brought Cy Young winner Randy Johnson to the Yankees because the deal for the Big Unit ended up being so convoluted. In 2005 the Diamondbacks sent Johnson to the Yankees for 3 players and cash. Two years later - they sent 4 players to the Yankees for the Big Unit and more cash. The net for the Diamondbacks was pretty much getting Randy Johnson back plus top prospect Chris Young along with a bunch of George Steinbrenner's cash.

Finally and maybe most significantly - Dan Haren was traded just over a month ago to the Diamondbacks from the A's. Haren and Connor Robertson went from Oakland Athletics in return for Carlos Gonzalez, pitchers Brett Anderson, Greg Smith and Dana Eveland, outfielder Aaron Cunningham and first baseman Chris Carter - a 2 for 6 deal. It can be argued that the A's got a better group of prospects for Haren than the Twins got for Santana. It will be interesting to compare how Carlos Gonzalez does in comparison to Carlos Gomez.

Johan Santana Trade Proposals

Aaron Gleeman has a very good analysis of the proposed packages being offered for Johan Santana.

Aaron likes either the Yankee package with Hughes or the package from the Red Sox that includes Jacoby Ellsbury who he compares to a young Kenny Lofton. I've long thought that the best comparison to Ellsbury was Brett Butler but the Lofton comparison works too.

Gleeman's analysis does not take into consideration any package from the Mets and that I think is the one drawback. I think the Mets will end up putting together the biggest package.

Paying for Santana

Just thinking about Johan Santana possibly playing for the Red Sox and it occurred to me that if they acquired and signed him it is very possible that he could have almost ZERO impact on the Red Sox payroll. Consider that between Matt Clement and Eric Gagne the Red Sox have approximately $14.5 million coming off the books for this season. If Coco Crisp is part of the package that lands Santana then that's another $5 million. That's a total of $19.5 million.

Next year the Red Sox will most likely have Curt Schilling's $10 million coming off the books ($8 million base plus $2 million in incentives). So if the Red Sox sign Santana for $20 million for 2008 with a $25 million annual salary for years 2009-2012 with another $25 million option for 2013 then that's a 6-year deal (including the option year) at $145 million. That should get the deal done. That would also basically put the Red Sox for those years at or possibly below what their overall payroll was for 2007.

That's mind blowing.

The Unbearable Whiteness of Being

Johan Santana to the Red Sox is all but done. Jon Lester, a center fielder, Justin Masterson and Ryan Kalish are the package. More details now.

--Will Carroll, 5:15 p.m.

Last night that was the announcement that makes me think that the Red Sox will be getting Johan Santana. As I mentioned before - a trade like this won't be announced for hours or days after an agreement has been made because the team trading for Santana will have a 72-hour window to get him signed to a new contract. The deal could have been done last night and now the Red Sox and Santana are just getting the physical done and contract details hammered out.

It will be awesome if the Red Sox get Santana for the rumored package of players. It will make them prohibitive favorites to win multiple World Series over the next few years. However, there is one aspect of the proposed package that bears closer examination.

Almost every Red Sox fan hopes that center fielder mentioned will be Coco Crisp and not Jacoby Ellsbury. However, if it is Coco Crisp then that means there is a very good chance that the Boston Red Sox's Opening Day 25-man roster will have ZERO African Americans. I know, I know - who cares? I care only that the Red Sox field the most competitive team possible but I bring this up because some people will make an issue out of it. Make no mistake. And yes I'm talking about the Boston Globe here.

It's a stupid issue but something the Boston Globe made a big deal out of 4-years ago. If Coco Crisp is traded - I'm betting they make it an issue once again.

Johan Santana and Jacoby Ellsbury

Last week it was the Eagles having the blueprint to beat the Patriots. This week the parroted sports media meme being tossed about by all the talking heads is to compare Jacoby Ellsbury to Al Jefferson.

The meme goes something like this - "a few months ago Boston fans were against trading the young Al Jefferson for Kevin Garnett but now they are all happy with the result. Including Jacoby Ellsbury in a trade for Johan Santana would be the same thing."

I have problems with this line of thinking. First in basketball one player can make a much bigger impact because there are only five players per team and a guy like Koby Bryant can take 40% of the shots. In baseball a player can't take 40% of the at bats and a pitcher like Santana can only pitch once every 5 games. Maybe if Al Jefferson played every game but Kevin Garnett was only allowed to play once every 5 days then the comparison would hold more validity.

It's apples to oranges and just wrong. The meme being picked up and repeated over and over shows a lack of original thinking on the part of the Boston sports media.

Johan Santana

All the baseball hotstove talk is about Johan Santana being traded and updates of whether he's been traded yet. One thing all the talking heads keep forgetting to mention is that any potential deal for Santana will include a 72-hour window for the team trading for Santana to try and get him signed. That means a deal could have already been reached but the new contract for Santana hasn't been hammered out.

Just thought that point should be mentioned by someone.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

I think the Yankees will be forced to include Philip Hughes in any package for Johan Santana and I think that's a mistake by the Yankees. The Red Sox would be forced to include Jacoby Ellsbury and that too would be a mistake. Why would it be a mistake? Consider that CC Sabathia led all AL pitchers in win shares this season with 24. Ichiro Sazuki had 33 and I would project Ellsbury to be Ichiro-lite but at a fraction of the salary cost. It would be a mistake for the Yankees to include Hughes because I think he's that good. I think the Red Sox brass know including Ellsbury is not worth it (I don't buy those recent reports that they have included him) but I do think the Yankees hand can be forced to include Hughes... Here's an excellent projection on how the Yankees could fare in 2008 if they acquire Santana for a package including Melky Cabrera and Philip Hughes. It projects the Yankees to 96 wins next season... Most people are calling the Marlins greedy for turning down the Angels trade offer for Miguel Cabrera but David Pinto doesn't blame the Marlins one bit. I have to agree with David. This deal smacks of 5 nickels for a quarter type of deal and those never pan out for the guy getting the nickels... Would anyone be surprised if the Orioles traded Miguel Tejada quickly before the Mitchell Report comes out?... I would love for the Red Sox to wind up with Dan Haren but Billy Beane drives a hard bargain and they may be asked to give up too much. I would love for the Red Sox to wind up with Erik Bedard but the Orioles would be hard pressed to trade him within the division. I would love for the Red Sox to come away with just one of Santana, Haren or Bedard but the reality is they probably won't overspend in prospects and you can't blame them for that...

One of the Great Trades in Baseball History

With Johan Santana on the market and the Twins asking a king's ransom for him - I started thinking about the trade that brought Pedro Martinez to Boston. The more I look at the trade the more I start to marvel at how one-sided it was.

In November of 1997 Pedro Martinez was traded to Boston from Montreal in exchange for pitching prospects Carl Pavano and Tony Armas. With the Red Sox - Pedro went 117-37 and won 2 Cy Young Awards. Carl Pavano went 24-35 for Montreal before being part of a 8 player deal in 2002 that sent Pavano to the Marlins. Tony Armas went 32-41 for Montreal before leaving as a free agent after the 2004 season. Pedro had more than double the wins and less than half of the losses of the guys he was traded for.

When the greatest trades of all-time are mentioned - the deal that brought Pedro Martinez to Boston is often oddly left out of the discussion. Dan Duquette doesn't get the credit he deserves. Not only did he trade for Pedro Martinez but he also made the deal that sent Heathcliff Slocumb to Seattle in exchange for Jaso Varitek and Derek Lowe.