Measuring Catcher's Defensive Value

Trying to gauge the defensive value of catchers is a crapshoot. Take David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range for instance. He has the Dodger's Russell Martin listed above Jason Varitek by his method. Just saying but the rumors are the Dodgers are interested in Varitek because of the defense he'd bring to the team over Martin.

This is not a slam at Pinto's method in any way. It's more to point out that the defensive value of a catcher is almost impossible to gauge. How do you factor in a good pitching coach or a bad one for that matter? Defensive Win Shares for catchers are an even worse measuring stick.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

Ken Rosenthal raises the interesting question about the Red Sox NOT exercising their option on Manny Ramirez for 2009. I think the Red Sox will exercise the option but if Manny finishes the year with 30 HR, 100 RBI and an OPS+ of 130 - then they will definitely think about it. And if Manny acts up again between now and the end of the year - then they will think long and hard about whether having Manny around is worth it. Manny is lucky that there are no big name outfielders available in this year's free agent crop. I think Rosenthal is correct that the Red Sox will check with the Rockies about the availability of Matt Holliday before they re-up Manny.... LyfLines has a great review of the Red Sox performance in June. I had forgotten that the Red Sox entered June a game back of Tampa Bay. It also looks like the Red Sox were actually a better club with Coco Crisp in the line-up. Crisp had an OPS of .880 for the month (compared to Jacoby Ellsbury's anemic .592). Good stuff... David Pinto points out that Edgar Gonzalez has been a hit for the Padres. A 30-year old career minor leaguer making the most of his opportunity is always a great story. I would like to point out that the Red Sox also have a career minor leaguer playing second in Pawtucket who I think would do well with a shot at the bigs. Joe Thurston is leading Pawtucket with a .324 BA but at 29-years old - time is running out for him... Tom Verducci has an excellent article on Tim Lincecum. Well worth the read...

Excellent Point

David Pinto makes an excellent point:

Something I've talked about before is the more often a manager changes pitchers, the more likely he's going to find one having a bad day. If a reliever is brought in and pitches well, and hasn't reached a credible pitch limit, why not let him continue?

Sadly - I can see two reasons why the status quo is not broached. First - the manager would be accused of messing with the confidence of the closer in the media and on talk radio. Second - the manager would be accused of attempting a "closer by committee" set-up which has become three most misunderstood dirty words in baseball today.

It will take a manager secure enough in his position with a closer secure enough in his confidence and who puts team wins above personal numbers to make this happen.

The current situation in Atlanta may prove to be the perfect setting to break the now traditional role of a 3-out closer. When John Smoltz and Rafael Soriano are both healthy - the younger Soriano will defer to the Hall of Famer Smoltz who is not a fragile ego guy in the least. Smoltz for his part will not mind if Soriano is cruising along and stays in for the 9th inning for the save. Smoltz wants to "conserve the bullets left in the gun" and he and Bobby Cox have seen too many blown saves in Atlanta to care about orthodoxy.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

I think the Yankees will be forced to include Philip Hughes in any package for Johan Santana and I think that's a mistake by the Yankees. The Red Sox would be forced to include Jacoby Ellsbury and that too would be a mistake. Why would it be a mistake? Consider that CC Sabathia led all AL pitchers in win shares this season with 24. Ichiro Sazuki had 33 and I would project Ellsbury to be Ichiro-lite but at a fraction of the salary cost. It would be a mistake for the Yankees to include Hughes because I think he's that good. I think the Red Sox brass know including Ellsbury is not worth it (I don't buy those recent reports that they have included him) but I do think the Yankees hand can be forced to include Hughes... Here's an excellent projection on how the Yankees could fare in 2008 if they acquire Santana for a package including Melky Cabrera and Philip Hughes. It projects the Yankees to 96 wins next season... Most people are calling the Marlins greedy for turning down the Angels trade offer for Miguel Cabrera but David Pinto doesn't blame the Marlins one bit. I have to agree with David. This deal smacks of 5 nickels for a quarter type of deal and those never pan out for the guy getting the nickels... Would anyone be surprised if the Orioles traded Miguel Tejada quickly before the Mitchell Report comes out?... I would love for the Red Sox to wind up with Dan Haren but Billy Beane drives a hard bargain and they may be asked to give up too much. I would love for the Red Sox to wind up with Erik Bedard but the Orioles would be hard pressed to trade him within the division. I would love for the Red Sox to come away with just one of Santana, Haren or Bedard but the reality is they probably won't overspend in prospects and you can't blame them for that...

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

John Donovan of SI does a position by position comparison for the NLCS and gives pretty much the edge to everything except starting pitching to the Rockies. I'll quibble on a couple of things such as saying Todd Helton is "just OK defensively" and that the Diamondbacks have the "intangibles" going for them (I'd disagree on both of these points). Donovan picks the Rockies in 6 games but with home field advantage and better starting pitching - I still find it tough to pick against the Diamondbacks... There is a pretty good chance that game 1 of the ALCS in Boston could be rained out. This would make it much more difficult to have the game 1 starters also start games 4 and 7 (if necessary) because it would eliminate an off-day between starts. This means the teams probably would be forced to go with 4 starters each which I think gives an edge to Boston since they have a deeper pitching staff. The Red Sox can use Tim Wakefield as their 4th starter with Jon Lester as long relief.... ESPN's Tim Kurkjian picks the Red Sox in 7... I think an aspect that is not discussed enough is how the Indians chose to support manager Eric Wedge in 2004 when they basically picked him over supposedly budding star Milton Bradley (who has never lived up to his supposed talent levels). That decision to trade away the disgruntled Bradley has allowed Cleveland to get to the point they are today - as a cohesive, gruntled unit. It is a lesson that GM's should not forget... David Pinto has an ALCS preview at The Sporting news which focuses in on strikeouts. Largely because Boston pitchers strikeout more batters and Cleveland hitters tend to strikeout more often - Pinto picks the Red Sox in 7 games.... Speaking of strikeouts - I've been meaning to mention the incredible fact that this year Dustin Pedroia has walked 47 times yet struck out just 42 times in 520 at bats. His number of strikeouts is mind numbingly low for a rookie who has a seemingly swing for it all approach at the plate. Which is why I'm bothered by the fact that Pedroia struck out twice against the Angels in the ALDS. If Pedroia can work the counts and not strikeout against the Indians - that's a big advantage in helping to get at Cleveland's bullpen...

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

Miguel Tejada may be out with his broken wrist until August. That's bad news for the Orioles in more than one way. It will be very difficult to deal Tejeda while he's on the DL and his return date will be past the end of the trade deadline. Looks like Baltimore will be stuck with Tejada for the rest of the season. I'd look for him to be dealt after the World Series... Manny Ramirez (1,386,522) has dropped to 4th in the AL All-Star voting behind Vlade Guerrero (2,043,824), Magglio Ordonez (1,445,899) and Ichiro (1,409,762). All three are very deserving of the honor but I'd still like to see Manny get the votes... I love Baseball-reference.com for many reasons and one of them is the sponsors they get for many of their pages. Here's what it says on Mark Buerhle's page: "Goliak sponsor(s) this page. We could've kept our season tickets, gone to the world series and seen Buehrle's no hitter. I hate you, joe." I'm guessing Joe decided not to renew some tickets or something and Goliak is no longer a fan of Joe the cheapskate... Nomar Garciaparra will be moving to third base for the Dodgers to make room for hard hitting James Loney at first base. David Pinto doesn't like the move. He thinks the Dodgers should just sit Nomar. I like the move and would have 3 responses to David Pinto (who I greatly respect): 1 - yes Nomar is having a down year but he has been hitting in the "clutch" - witness his .423 BA with RISP this year which is best in the NL; 2 - Nomar has a track record that says he'll break out of his power slump whereas Betemit has no such track record and is more of a risk; finally 3 - for better or worse Nomar is currently the face of the franchise and you just don't bench the one player the fans recognize for a marginal statistical upgrade...