Matt Holliday's Diminishing HR Power

Back in April I predicted that:

I expect Matt Holliday to be a bust in the American League. I wish there was some place that would take a prop bet that at least one Rockies outfielder will have as many or more HR than Holliday this season.

I was right in my prediction so far (Brad Hawpe has 13 HR to Holliday's 8) but I didn't spot the trend. Now the trend is painfully obvious.

In 2007 Holliday hit a HR on average every 17.67 at bats. In 2008 it was a HR every 21.56 AB. This season it just one HR every 37.75 AB. If the progression continues then in 2010 we can expect to see Matt Holliday with Coco Crisp-like power numbers. I'm not even sure that even a return to the NL at this point will stem the tide for Holliday. We may have already seen his peak years.

Top 5 - AL Players Who May Be Trade Bait

Here are 5 AL players who are probably being shopped as you read this.

Matt Holliday - A's - $13.5 million 2009 contract - I think he definitely gets traded mostly for financial reasons. The A's just can't afford him. They should get a better haul back on Holliday than what they gave up for him. He would fit best with a NL team in need of a bat.

Aubrey Huff - Orioles - $8 million 2009 contract - Huff has a line of 10 HR / 52 RBI / .270 BA. He's an available 1B /DH for a team that needs a bat (especially a left-handed bat). I'm not a fan and I question how Huff would handle a big-city pennant race. Huff will probably be a Type A free agent so whatever a team gives up for him may come back to them with draft picks (assuming Huff does not accept arbitration which is a risk I wouldn't be willing to take on Huff - do you really want to take the risk of having to pay Huff $11 million in 2010?).

Cliff Lee - Indians - $5.75 million 2009 contract with a $9 million 2010 team option. If Lee is traded it will be because the Indians have too much money tied up in bad Kerry Woods, bad Jake Westbrook and bad Travis Hafner. If Cliff Lee is traded - Mark Shapiro and Eric Wedge should both be shown the door. My guess is that Lee will not be traded though because it would be admitting to everyone that the Indians have failed on the field and on the budget front and that would lead to Shapiro and Wedge getting fired. It's a Catch 22 for the Indians.

Adam Kennedy - A's - $4 million 2009 contract - would be a good fit for a playoff contender with a need at 2nd base (the Mets and Tampa Bay are two potential landing spots).

Mark Teahen - Royals - $3.5 million 2009 contract - Teahen is arbitration eligible for 2 more seasons and he can play 3rd, OF or 2nd in a pinch. That makes him attractive trade bait. For whatever reasons the Royals have been down on Teahen (Alex Gordon being reason A Teahen has been shunted in KC). I'm not sure the Royals want to be paying Teahen $5 million next season. If Mike Lowell's hip is worse than thought - I'd look for the Red Sox to make a play for Teahen.

Johnny Damon

After this season the Yankees will have some decisions to make about their outfield. Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui are both free agents. The top outfielder free agents will be Jason Bay and Matt Holliday. Knowing that the Yankees will have a hole to fill and the fact that Bay has fit in so well in Boston probably means the Red Sox get Bay wrapped up (they CANNOT let Bay go to the Yankees). That leaves Holliday as the top free agent but the problem there is the fact that maybe Holliday is not as good as his Coors Field inflated numbers would indicate. He has yet to hit a home run this season and I predicted that he'd be exposed this year.

Today the Yankees have Damon, Melky Cabrera and Nick Swisher as the starting outfield with Brett Gardner poised as the CF of the future and Xavier Nady as the corner insurance plan. Hideki Matsui is basically just a DH at this point and I don't see them re-signing Godzilla.

I guess the Yankees could live with an outfield of Cabrera, Gardner and Swisher but I think the Yankees will start to realize that Johnny Damon is more important to their plans than most people realize. My prediction is that Damon eventually gets a two-year extension from the Yankees and finishes his career having played more games in pinstripes than in any other uniform.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

I've never understood the appeal of Pirates shortstop Jack Wilson. He's the highest paid player on the Pirates and yet his career OPS+ is just 79 (an average player would be at 100). Pirates management even saw fit to give a player who has a career batting average of just .270 a limited no-trade contract. Maybe this, in a nutshell, explains why the Pirates suck... At one point Edwin Jackson was the highest regarded pitching prospect in baseball. The Dodgers wouldn't trade him for anyone. Then Jackson's decline came. Last year I pretty much took the over in any game Jackson started for Tampa Bay and I must say that was a nice little run for me. This season Jackson started out with a 7 1/3, one run no-decision for the Tigers and you have to wonder if he's finally put it together. Today's start against Kevin Millwood and Texas should go a long way in answering that question... The Cleveland Indians sport a league-worst 9.86 ERA and their pitching staff has allowed opponents to hit .357. That's beyond putrid... I've said it before but I expect Matt Holliday to be a bust in the American League. I wish there was some place that would take a prop bet that at least one Rockies outfielder will have as many or more HR than Holliday this season. I'd guess that two Rockies outfielders will out-homer Holliday... 17 years ago today Boston's Matt Young pitched eight no-hit innings at Cleveland but lost 2-1 in the opener of a doubleheader. Young was not officially credited with a no-hitter because he did not pitch a full 9 innings... Pick of the day - Atlanta (-$200 - meaning you would have to risk $200 to win $100) with Jair Jurrjens starting over the Nationals (and yes I know the odds are steep but they are steep for a reason)...

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

Ken Rosenthal raises the interesting question about the Red Sox NOT exercising their option on Manny Ramirez for 2009. I think the Red Sox will exercise the option but if Manny finishes the year with 30 HR, 100 RBI and an OPS+ of 130 - then they will definitely think about it. And if Manny acts up again between now and the end of the year - then they will think long and hard about whether having Manny around is worth it. Manny is lucky that there are no big name outfielders available in this year's free agent crop. I think Rosenthal is correct that the Red Sox will check with the Rockies about the availability of Matt Holliday before they re-up Manny.... LyfLines has a great review of the Red Sox performance in June. I had forgotten that the Red Sox entered June a game back of Tampa Bay. It also looks like the Red Sox were actually a better club with Coco Crisp in the line-up. Crisp had an OPS of .880 for the month (compared to Jacoby Ellsbury's anemic .592). Good stuff... David Pinto points out that Edgar Gonzalez has been a hit for the Padres. A 30-year old career minor leaguer making the most of his opportunity is always a great story. I would like to point out that the Red Sox also have a career minor leaguer playing second in Pawtucket who I think would do well with a shot at the bigs. Joe Thurston is leading Pawtucket with a .324 BA but at 29-years old - time is running out for him... Tom Verducci has an excellent article on Tim Lincecum. Well worth the read...

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

Today would have been Mickey Cochrane's 105th birthday. Cochrane was both one of the 5 best ballplayers to ever come out of Massachusetts and one of the 5 best catchers of all-time (Bill James has him ahead of Carlton Fisk). Not bad for a kid from Bridgewater... I thought OBP was Billy Beane's thing? Travis Buck is supposedly Oakland's leadoff hitter but Buck has yet to get a hit or a walk this season... Just when you thought the Eric Gagne trade to Boston couldn't get more aggravating. Last night Kason Gabbard went 7 scoreless innings to earn the win and outfielder David Murphy had a two hits (including a double), two runs scored and a stolen base in last night's 11-6 victory over the Angels. Gabbard and Murphy were traded for Gagne late last season... Last night Matt Stairs hit his 242nd HR. I like Matt Stairs if just for the simple fact that he doesn't look like an athlete. He looks like he should be tearing it up in a local beer league not the major leagues but there he is in his 16th season in the bigs. Stairs is also 2nd on the list of HR hit by a Canadian born player (Larry Walker tops the list)... Ian Kennedy gave up 6 earned runs in less than 3 innings yesterday and the Yankees were pounded by the Rays. I'm pretty sure that Clay Buchholtz can top Kennedy's start when Clay pitches for the Red Sox today. LaTroy Hawkins also managed to give up 6 earned runs last night but he did it in less than one inning. My guess is that Girardi may be better off only using Hawkins on the road until Hawkins gets his ERA under double digits... Matt Holliday probably has a large number of people second guessing their decision to take him with their first pick in their fantasy baseball drafts. Holliday has just one single so far this season but now's the time I remind you that the season is just a week old and to just wait. Holliday will put up the numbers (at least I hope so since I too took him with a first round pick)...

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

It looks like Mike Lowell will be back with the Red Sox. The reported contract would be 3-years and $37.5 million. I'm glad that the Red Sox did not go that 4th year but if they had approached Lowell in spring training they probably could have had a 2-year $20 million deal. I think the Red Sox should learn from this experience and get Jason Varitek to sign a 1 or 2 year extension before his contract expires at the end of next season.... The White Sox sent Jon Garland to the Angels in exchange for Orlando Cabrera. I think this was a good move by the Angels. They get perhaps the best pitcher available from either the free agent or trade market (assuming Johan Santana or Dan Haren are not yet on the market). You would think that the White Sox could have gotten more for Garland... I'm glad that Tom Glavine is back with the Braves. He deserves to end his career with Atlanta. This is no sentimental move by the Braves though. Glavine can still eat up innings and will be the 3rd or 4th starter for the Braves. Last year he was forced to be the number 1 starter for the Mets and that as much as anything is what caused the late season FAIL in Flushing. The Mets are just about desperate for starting pitching.... It was no surprise that A-Rod won the AL MVP. I think that the NL award goes to Matt Holliday of the Rockies. David Wright could have won the award if the Mets didn't fall apart at the end of the season. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera played for teams that did not make the post season and Jimmy Rollins may not have been the most valuable player on his won team. That leaves Holliday by process of elimination as the winner of the NL MVP award...

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

With the Padres and Rockies playing a 163rd game - I was reminded that in 1978 when the Red Sox went to a playoff - Jim Rice played in every game that season - all 163 of them. Adrian Gonzalez came close to Rice's mark by playing 161 games this season... I figured out who was to blame for the Mets' collapse - Mr. Met. Wally the Green Monster never would have allowed the Red Sox to fall apart like that... If I had a vote for NL MVP - I'd have to give it to Matt Holliday of the Rockies. Holliday was taken in the 7th round of the 1998 draft. In the first round the Rockies took pitcher Matt Roney with the 28th pick, outfielder Choo Freeman with 36th pick and catcher Jeff Winchester with the 40th pick. If I'm the Rockies I'm not sure how I feel about the success of those 3 first rounders... Prediction - if the Phillies go on to win the World Series then the number of people who die in the "celebration" will outnumber the US military deaths in Iraq for October... If I had a vote for NL Manager of the Year - I'd vote for Willie Randolph just to screw with people... The Red Sox having to carry 3 catchers on their playoff roster for the series against the Angels points out how much of an albatross Doug Mirabelli has become. His only skill is being Tim Wakefield's buddy. He's become Robert DiNiro in Bang the Drum Slowly. I understand the flexibility having 3 catchers give you in the late innings but come on - there's a reason no playoff teams normally carry 3 catchers...