Royals / Rays Trade

Jeff Passan (a favorite) has a very good breakdown of the big trade that just sent James Shields to the Royals and uber prospect Wil Myers to the Rays.

This trade very much reminds me of the trade that send Josh Beckett to the Red Sox and uber prospect Hanley Ramirez to the Marlins. That trade ended up being a win for both teams. The Red Sox got a final piece that allowed them to meet their goal of winning the World Series while the Marlins got a young superstar under team control. The extra piece that ended up giving value way beyond what was expected in that trade was Mike Lowell who would go on to become the World Series MVP for Boston. Wade Davis is giving off that vibe for me in this trade for Kansas City. Please note that I'm not saying Shields is the final piece for a Royals World Series - their goal is simply to be competitive in the AL Central and I think this trade helps them with that goal.

It should also be noted that if sabermetric GM Theo Epstein was in place at the time for Boston then that trade may never have happened and the Red Sox could still be searching for their second Series win. Point is sometimes sabermetrics doesn't tell the whole story. I consider myself a stats guy but I also realize that games aren't won on the spreadsheet.

Kendry Morales and Mike Lowell

Yesterday's freak injury to the Angels' Kendry Morales may set of a chain reaction that will result in Mike Lowell being traded by the Red Sox. Mike Lowell wants to be traded someplace where he can play. The Red Sox want to trade Lowell and almost had a deal done with Texas for catcher Max Ramirez before an injury to Lowell's right thumb put the kibosh on the deal.

The Angels suddenly find themselves in dire need of a 1st baseman. Do you think that they haven't already called the Red Sox about Mike Lowell? Since the Red Sox have shown a penchant for trading for players named Ramirez - how about catching prospect Carlos Ramirez from the Angels?

Knowing that the Angels may be desperate may spur the Rangers to get back on the trade horse in order to beat their Californian competitor to the punch. This may also get others into the mix.

The bottom line is that I'd be surprised if Mike Lowell is still with the Red Sox this time next week.

Mike Lowell

I'd love to have Mike Lowell coming off the bench for the Red Sox all year but you know he's not happy and would rather be someplace where he'd be able to play full-time. When I do an inventory of teams that could be trade partners for the Red Sox - I get three possibilities.

1. Texas - they were a trade possibility before and they remain one. Do they really want to rush stud hitter Justin Smoak? If after 20 games Smoak is still hitting sub .200 then a move for the veteran presence of Lowell would make lots of sense for Texas who has a real shot at the AL West. Let Smoak watch and learn from the bench how someone like Lowell goes about his business.

2. Florida - Mike Lowell was a big name for the Marlins before and could be a drawing card for the Marlins again (especially among the Cuban community). The problems are that Gaby Sanchez is doing a good jib at first base and since he's a Miami product - then sitting him for Lowell could have a negative impact on fan interest (plus it would be more costly for the cash conscious Marlins).

3. Toronto - would the Red Sox deal within the division? The Blue Jays certainly have a need as Lyle Overbay has been dreadful.

Of course someone could get hurt and create a need. The best thing to do, in my mind, is to sit tight and see how things play out. But if there is a trade - then I wouldn't be surprised if the deal was with one of the three teams listed above.

EDIT: I'd add Seattle to the mix. I had no idea how badly Mike Sweeney was doing for the Mariners as their DH.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

As bad as David Ortiz and JD Drew have been for the Red Sox - Mark Teixeira has been equally bad for the Yankees. By going 1-4 yesterday - Teixeira RAISED his batting average to an even .100... Most recent no-hitters by team. Of all the great Braves pitchers in the 1990's - it was Kent Merker who got their no-no. Not pictured - New York Mets, San Diego and Tampa Bay... Livan Hernandez (2-0) hasn't allowed an earned run in two starts this year for the Nationals. Why can't the Mets get pitchers like that?... Could the Angels be a trade partner for the Red Sox? Brandon Wood has been awful so far this season at 3rd base (hitting just .088) and the Angels could use a guy like Mike Lowell as insurance Wood doesn't completely crap the bed. Plus Lowell could spell Kendry Morales at 1st and Hideki Matsui at DH. The Red Sox probably wouldn't even be compelled to eat as much as Lowell's salary as they would have with the Rangers. Just a thought... The Red Sox have the same record as the Kansas City Royals... Going into yesterday's 20 inning marathon the Mets team ERA was 4.30. After giving up just 1 run in 19 innings their team ERA dropped to 3.63...

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

The Mike Lowell for Max Ramirez trade still makes sense but I'm torn. Part of me wants the classy Lowell to stay in Boston - make that most of me... The Mesopotamian god of the moon was called Sin which is appropriate since most sins are committed at night... Awesome April Fools prank... When Gerry Ford was President he took inflation down from double digits to 5% and decreased unemployment simply by decreasing government spending. Ford used something like 66 vetoes on what he considered unnecessary government expenditures. We could use a Gerry Ford today. Instead we get a Jimmy Carter... Dogs playing Poker - Reinterpreted for Geeks... I'm probably going to read Kick-Ass the graphic novel at a Barnes and Noble before seeing the movie... Brad Wilkerson has been released by the Phillies. I, like many, am puzzled by the career of Wilkerson. He hit 32 HR as a 27-year old. He's like this generation's Phil Plantier... Heh heh...

Lowell to Rangers for Max Ramirez

Supposedly the Red Sox will be sending Mike Lowell to the Texas Rangers for catching prospect Max Ramirez. My initial thought was "What's with all the Ramirez's?" First they trade Coco Crisp to the Royals for Ramon Ramirez. Then they trade for another guy named Ramon Ramirez. Now Max Ramirez? Are they still trying to make up for loss of Manny Ramirez? The trade of Hanley Ramirez? Probably just a coincidence but you have to admit it is a bit weird.

As far as the trade is concerned - I like it. Getting a top prospect (albeit one whose shine faded last season hopefully due to wrist injuries) is better than taking on someone else's bad contract (see Bradley, Milton). Lowell had become an obstacle in Boston. Even if he recovers even more from his hip injury the Red Sox can improve over what he has to offer both at the plate and in the field. However, Lowell is such a veteran presence that if he stayed in Boston and was healthy - then the Red Sox would almost be forced to play him.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

One of the most impressive facts about Albert Pujols this season is the fact that he's leading MLB in both runs scored and RBI. You usually lead the league in one or the other category but to lead all of baseball in both is incredible... Mike Lowell's hip makes him run like someone's athletic grandmother but he still leads all Red Sox hitters in doubles with 18. Go figure... If the season ended today a very good argument could be made that Matt Cain should be the NL Cy Young winner. Cain is 9-1 with a 2.28 ERA. His 9 wins are tied for first in the NL and his ERA is second only to Dan Haren's 2.23. Tim Lincecum gets all the attention but Cain has 3 more wins and his ERA is almost a half run lower than his reigning Cy Young teammate... Interesting - Matt Clement has been named the head basketball coach at his high school alma mater. Good for him. I'm also sure this won't get in the way of him making a try at a comeback. JP Riccardi was a very successful basketball coach in the offseason at Holy Name HS in Worcester while working for the Oakland A's and Matt Stairs still coaches high school hockey in Maine in the offseason. I'm rooting for Clement. He always seemed like a nice guy...

Morning Links

Some stuff I found interesting.

- Interview with Mike Lowell who brings up the interesting point that a HGH test that was 99% accurate would still lead to 7 false positives among major league players.

- It really looks like a shake-down attempt on Randy Moss. I hope his attorneys go on the counter-offensive and go after this seemingly slimeball attorney.

- Interesting look at school choice and where it stands in the country. I had not considered how the closing of Catholic schools due to the cash crunch caused by the priest sex scandals had harmed school vouchers before. Long article but very informative.

- Interesting look at the people who set the Vegas lines and their thoughts on the BCS:

“We laugh a little,” White says. “You just have to make a line on Hawaii and Georgia. The whole time you’re thinking, why are these two teams playing?”

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

It looks like Mike Lowell will be back with the Red Sox. The reported contract would be 3-years and $37.5 million. I'm glad that the Red Sox did not go that 4th year but if they had approached Lowell in spring training they probably could have had a 2-year $20 million deal. I think the Red Sox should learn from this experience and get Jason Varitek to sign a 1 or 2 year extension before his contract expires at the end of next season.... The White Sox sent Jon Garland to the Angels in exchange for Orlando Cabrera. I think this was a good move by the Angels. They get perhaps the best pitcher available from either the free agent or trade market (assuming Johan Santana or Dan Haren are not yet on the market). You would think that the White Sox could have gotten more for Garland... I'm glad that Tom Glavine is back with the Braves. He deserves to end his career with Atlanta. This is no sentimental move by the Braves though. Glavine can still eat up innings and will be the 3rd or 4th starter for the Braves. Last year he was forced to be the number 1 starter for the Mets and that as much as anything is what caused the late season FAIL in Flushing. The Mets are just about desperate for starting pitching.... It was no surprise that A-Rod won the AL MVP. I think that the NL award goes to Matt Holliday of the Rockies. David Wright could have won the award if the Mets didn't fall apart at the end of the season. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera played for teams that did not make the post season and Jimmy Rollins may not have been the most valuable player on his won team. That leaves Holliday by process of elimination as the winner of the NL MVP award...

Mike Lowell

OK - this will probably be my last post on Mike Lowell until he signs somewhere. I was curious what teams would be in need of a 3rd baseman who will bring Gold Glove caliber defense, a veteran presence and potentially 20 HR but would cost about $50 million over 4-years.

I thought the best way would be to look at this division by division.

AL East - The Red Sox obviously want him back but for a 3-year deal. The Yankees supposedly have A-Rod back in the fold and I doubt if Lowell really wants to switch to 1st right now. The Orioles have Melvin Mora signed up till 2009 and they need to get younger not older. Forget the (Devil) Rays. Mike Lowell rakes the ball in Toronto but they already have Troy Glaus and his no trade contract to deal with. So that just leaves the Red Sox as a probably landing spot for Mike Lowell.

AL Central - The Indians have Casey Blake and Andy Marte supposedly waiting in the wings. I doubt they make Lowell a better offer than the Red Sox. The White Sox could do something but they already have Joe Crede who has not yet turned 30 at a third the cost and Josh Fields waiting in the wings. They won't make an offer to match the Red Sox. Kansas City? They have two young stud 3rd baseman. Why would they need an old one? The Tigers have Brandon Inge signed up till after the 2010 season. I don't see them making a play. The Twins wouldn't even offer Torii Hunter a 4-year deal. Sure they could use Mike Lowell but they will be getting younger when they trade Johan Santana - why would they need a high priced veteran on their limited budget? I see no potential suitors for Lowell in the AL Central.

AL West - The Angels have Chone Figgins, Dallas McPherson and Brandon Wood potentially to man the hot corner. Sure they were interested in A-Rod but that is because they need a big bat to protect Vlade Guererro in the line-up. Lowell doesn't fit that bill but Miguel Cabrera would. The A's have too much tied up in Eric Chavez to be involved in the bidding. Same is true with the Mariners with Adrian Beltre. Jon Daniels wants the Rangers to get younger so a deal for Lowell is improbable. I see no potential suitors for Lowell in the AL West.

NL East - The Mets have David Wright, the Nationals Ryan Zimmerman and the Braves have Chipper Jones. That leaves the Phillies. They have Wes Helms under contract until 2009 but he's cheap. The Phillies could use a veteran presence like Mike Lowell but do they outbid the Red Sox is the question. Lowell has hit the ball very well at Citizens Bank Park in the past and the Phillies could use a big splash signing. Philadelphia is a very real potential landing spot for Mike Lowell.

NL Central - The Cubs have Aramis Ramirez, the Brewers have Ryan Braun (and Bill Hall), the Reds have 24-year old Edwin Encarnacion, the Astros have Ty Wiggington at a cheap price and the Cardinals have Scott Rolen (but they would love to be rid of him). That just leaves the Pirates and the odds of the Pirates out-bidding the Red Sox are as great as Dennis Kucinich winning the White House. I don't see any potential suitors for Lowell in the NL Central but that could change if the Cardinals off-load Scott Rolen.

NL West - Mark Reynolds is just 24 and a keeper for the Diamondbacks. The Rockies have two young stud 3rd baseman - so scratch them. The Padres have young Kevin Kouzmanoff. The Dodgers have Nomar for one more year and I doubt they would out bid the Red Sox. That leaves just the Giants. The Giants have Rich Aurilia under contract for one more season but at short money. They could potentially try and make a splash with Lowell - especially with Barry Bond's money coming off the books. Brian Sabean has proved time and again that he's not afraid of signing older players. The Giants could be the real wildcard in the pack. If they are the only team to offer Lowell a 4th year and that's a sticking point with Lowell then the Giants could win the bidding by default.

So I see three real suitors for the services of Mike Lowell. The Red Sox have an offer on the table for 3-years and Lowell will probably give the Red Sox the option to meet any offer. Pat Gillick of the Phillies is on record as saying the Phillies are only interested in spending free agent money on pitching and pitching should be their number one priority. However, if they start to lose out on on starter after starter who refuse to go to Citizens bank Park on their own volition - then they may want to make a splash with Lowell. I think San Francisco would be Lowell's third choice of the bunch. When you look at it logically - it adds up to Mike Lowell re-signing with the Red Sox.

EDIT: Lyford has a very good post on Mike Lowell's numbers. He comes to the same conclusion that a 3-year deal is OK but a 4-year deal would not be. I agree.

Throwing Stuff Against the Wall - Take II

Here's a prime example of journalistic standards being thrown out the window during the hot stove season. No by-line and no named source. Yup - every reason in the world to take this report as the Gospel truth. Just for the heck of it - let's deconstruct this report.

7Sports has learned that Mike Lowell has received contract offers from four separate MLB teams: the Braves, Angels, Cardinals, and Yankees.

For those outside of New England - WHDH subscribes to the Inside Edition-type school of pop journalism. So right away - you have to take everything with a grain of salt. Now consider the teams:

Braves - they already have Chipper Jones at 3rd and at his age I'm sure he doesn't want to move to the outfield and Chipper can't move to 1st because Atlanta has Mark Teixeira for at least one more year. With limited financial resources signing Lowell just doesn't make any sense.

Angels - this sort of makes sense. The Angels were very interested in A-Rod so they may be trying to bed Lowell on the rebound. However, Lowell projects to a .280 batting average, 15-20 HR guy playing in Anaheim. Those are Chone Figgins-type numbers and they already have Chone Figgins.

Cardinals - they have Scott Rolen clogging the way at 3rd and I'm doubtful they would sign Lowell before dealing with that situation first.

Yankees - of course the Yankees have to be brought into the discussion about any "name" free agent. How else are you going to jack up the contract price?

A source close to the Lowell side of the negotiations tells 7Sports that each offer is a 4-year contract, worth between $55-60 million.

So basically this "information" is coming from Lowell's agent. Hmmm... no possible agenda there.

The Yankees offer includes a request that Lowell play First Base, something the Gold-Glove-winning third baseman does not want to do.

So if this is coming from Lowell's agent - this is their way of saying Lowell does not want to play for the Yankees. This is good news for Red Sox fans.

The Red Sox have previously offered Lowell a 3-year contract worth $36 million.

Lowell is now waiting to see if the Red Sox will up their initial offer and try to keep him in Boston, in lieu of these newest offers from the four previously mentioned teams.

Translation - "please trust us that other teams have offered Mike 4-year deals. Just add in one more year and he'll sign. Mike just wants to stay in Boston."

My guess is that a deal gets done and the Red Sox sign Lowell to a 3-year deal with a vesting 4th year option. So let it be written - so let it be done.

Throwing Stuff Against the Wall

I'm amused by this time of year. It really is the most entertaining part of the baseball season. Baseball writers just throw stuff up against the wall because every once and a while - they'll be right. I bring this up because of Ken Rosenthal's (and the AP's) report that now the Yankees want A-Rod back at third but also want to sign Mike Lowell to play 1st.

In no other area of journalism can you make the kind of claims sportswriters can make during the hot stove season. It would be akin to me having a friend who is a registered Democrat saying that Hillary should tab Colin Powell as her running mate and me running a story saying "sources inside the Democratic Party say that Hillary may make a run at Powell for VP." Then when Hillary picks someone else - completely forgetting I ever wrote anything about Colin Powell. During the hot stove season rumors of barely a scant chance of becoming real are reported as breaking news. It happens every year.

Sure its true that someone in the Yankees has probably considered Lowell at 1st and maybe that person has even talked to Lowell's agent about Lowell's willingness to play 1st. Its also true I've talked to friends about leaving my wife to hook up with with Jessica Alba. And I think if I were Hank Steinbrenner I could hook that up, too. I bet Jessica Alba digs dudes with money.

Sometimes I think baseball writers have a Yankees version "Jump to Conclusions" mat. If the Yankees bring back A-Rod and Lowell is the next best free agent available then let's all jump to the conclusion that the Yankees will obviously have to make a huge offer to Lowell and put him somewhere other than 3rd base.

The funny thing is that if the Yankees were to overpay Mike Lowell and sign him to a 4-year contract to play 1st - most Red Sox fans would be disappointed but in no way heartbroken. They would sincerely wish him well. I know it must seem contradictory for me to say that on one hand I really want Mike Lowell back but on the other not mind him being overpaid by the Yankees and leaving for the Bronx but that's the way it is.

Mike Lowell's swing was made for Fenway Park. Yankee Stadium? Not so much. Lowell knows that but if the money is overwhelming - then what are you going to do?

Most people who follow baseball know that if the Yankees developed home-grown talent and then coupled that with strategic big free agent signings - then that is when they are at their most dangerous. It's no coincidence that the Yankee dynasty came with the emergence of home grown stars like Jeter, Pettitte, Posada and Rivera. It's also no coincidence that the failure years came with the meddling Steinbrenner at the helm putting together a roster of top free agents willy-nilly.

If Lowell is over-paid to play 1st - then its a sign that the clearheadedness strength through the farm system of Brian Cashman is being replaced by the whims and tantrums of the new Steinbrenner on the block. That's good news for Red Sox fans. Under Steinbrenner the ratio of people to cake is too big.

I'm especially amused by the wrinkle of Hank Steinbrenner wanting to deal with A-Rod without agent Scott Boras being involved. I can just picture the way that he explains his reasoning for wanting to deal with A-Rod directly; "Well look - I already told you. I deal with the god damn players so the agents don't have to. I have people skills. I am good at dealing with players. Can't you understand that? What the hell is wrong with you people?"

Hey Brian Cashman you going fishing on Saturday? "Nah, Hank Steinbrenner's going to have me come in on Saturday - I just know it."

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

Jorge Posada has signed a 4-year $52.4 million contract to stay with the Yankees. Three thoughts on this signing. First - Jorge got that extra $100,000 per year because it now makes his contract the richest in history for a catcher (Mike Piazza had a $13 million per year contract). Second - does anyone think that Jorge will be worth the money in that last year? As a 40-year old catcher or as a DH? He may not be worth the money in the 3rd year. Finally - Jorge had a career year (in hits and batting average) at age 36 - would anyone be shocked if he's named in the Mitchell Report? As a Red Sox fan - I love this signing.... The Tigers re-signed Todd Jones to a 1-year $7 million deal. It's strange that Jones gets all that money mainly due to a guy making the minimum (Joel Zumaya) getting hurt. Seriously - Jones should send $1 million over Zumaya's way as a thank you for having such great stuff but being such a clumsy bastard... I think if the Yankees didn't give Posada the 4th year then the Mets would have. I don't think the Red Sox would operate that way. I think they put a dollar number and a number of years down next to a player and very rarely will they go over those numbers. Varitek being the exception that proves the rule... I think its a sign of how much the stock in Dontrelle Willis has fallen that even in a year with no real free agent pitchers worth the money there is almost no buzz about any team acquiring Willis and he's on the market! Willis has always pitched better on the road than at home (3.85 career ERA at home vs 3.71 career road ERA) and I think that maybe the South Beach nightlife may have sucked out his mojo last season. Just saying that I'm surprised his name doesn't come up more often... Having said that the Red Sox normally don't go over what they feel a player's true worth is - it will be interesting to see if the Red Sox offer Mike Lowell a 4th year. Lowell is a great clubhouse guy and the Red Sox really don't have anyone in the minors ready to play in the bigs. Lowell just may be another exception to the rule. If not I'd look for the Red Sox to sign Brad Wilkerson to play 1st and move Kevin Youkilis to 3rd... Congrats to Dustin Pedroia for winning the AL Rookie of the Year award. He deserved it. Let's hope Josh Beckett wins the Cy Young today.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

The legend of Dustin Pedroia continues to grow. Now it comes out that he played the last 2 months of the season with a broken hamate bone. What's not to like about this guy? He plays hurt and never says a word? Pedroia could be to the Red Sox what Jeter was to the Yankees. A rookie mid-fielder who wins a World Series in his first year and becomes a symbol of team success... I've seen Mike Lowell's free agent situation compared to that of Jason Varitek a few years ago. There is one major difference that most people don't note. When Varitek was a free agent he was far and away the best catcher on the market and the rest of the alternatives would have been a clear step down from what Jason was to offer the Red Sox. This year Lowell isn't even the best free agent on the market and the Red Sox have a guy playing 1st who could take his place (the Sox would then have to get a 1st baseman). Apples and oranges. Again - for the record I want Lowell back but I will understand if the Red Sox think his price gets too out of whack... Interesting - the top 40 pitchers of the 20th century. I think the fact that Sandy Koufax is not in the top 40 points out that this is a compilation based largely on longevity and not a true rendering of "the best". In fact not having Koufax in the top 40 should have been a tip off to the authors that their methodology was not ready for prime time. I also have a big problem listing Roger Clemens over Warren Spahn...

Jeff Passan on the Red Sox

Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports looks at the possible offseason moves by the Red Sox.

Passan thinks the Red Sox will be able to re-sign Mike Lowell to a 3-year deal (I hope that's true). It should be noted that if the Red Sox can't re-sign Lowell - then they would have about $25 million coming off the books (Lowell's $9 million plus Matt Clement's $9 million and a bunch of filler). That gives them the flexibility to sign a player like A-Rod but they will not sign a player to a 10-year contract. That just ain't going to happen.

One move I hope the Red Sox make is to sign Jonathan Papelbon to a long term deal (I know I just got done explaining how the Red Sox loathe long-term contracts but I think a deal with Papelbon that would take him past his first free agent year would be fiscally prudent).

After 3rd base - the big questions for the Red Sox will be:

1. Do they trade Coco Crisp and if so for who?
2. What do they do about a back-up catcher? I don't think the Red Sox want to carry Doug Mirabelli and his useless bat.

Hot Stove Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

The Washington Nationals forgotten man has to be 1st baseman Nick Johnson who missed all of last season with complications that arose from a broken leg. Johnson is known as a player with a sweet swing and even better plate discipline but who just can't stay healthy. The Nationals signed Dmitri Young to an extension so Nick Johnson's $5.5 million contract may very well be in play. Who needs a 1st baseman or a DH?... Speaking of the Nationals - they seem intent on making a splash signing a centerfielder (Torii Hunter is the hot rumor). I wonder where that leaves Ryan Church? Maybe - just maybe - if the Red Sox fail to sign Mike Lowell at 3rd and the Nationals cannot land the "name" free agent CF - then the Red Sox and Nationals could do a Coco Crisp for Nick Johnson and Ryan Church deal. The Red Sox could then move Kevin Youkilis to 3rd, hope for the best health-wise with Johnson at 1st and have a solid 4th outfielder in Church. Of course this won't happen because the Red Sox will re-sign Mike Lowell (to a reasonable 3-year $40 million contract)... Who has had the harder time over the years? The Twins trying to fill 3rd base or the Phillies trying to fill the closer role?.... Will anyone be surprised if the St. Louis Cardinals completely implode next season? Not me... If I were a team that needed a 3rd baseman - I would approach the Pirates about what they would want for Freddy Sanchez... Finally let me say this about the Red Sox re-signing Curt Schilling - GOOD! This was such a no-brainer from the Red Sox point of view. Schilling was the top available free agent pitcher on the market and he just wanted one year. Good for Schilling for choosing the lifestyle and family considerations over the take the money and run approach. The Red Sox are in a great position right now. Their big need is to sign their 3rd baseman (who also wants to stay put) and find a back-up catcher. The Red Sox also have the prospects available to make a deal for a Johan Santana or Miguel Cabrera. Good time to be a Red Sox fan...

Hot Stove Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous offseason baseball thoughts and observations.

Less than a week removed from the Red Sox winning the World Series and the sentimentality is starting to drop by the wayside. Monday if you asked me - I would have said that the Red Sox need to do whatever it takes to sign Mike Lowell. Today I'm not so sure. Yes I think it would be worth it to sign Lowell to something like a 3-year $40 million deal but anything over that in time or in money may not be worth it. Don't get me wrong - I want Lowell back and I think even though he's 34-years old I don't see a great drop off for Lowell either offensively or defensively, however, I do see him being dead money in 2011 if a 4th year is added to the contract... I would bring back Curt Schilling for the one-year deal he's looking for. The Red Sox have Josh Beckett, Dice-K, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholtz in the rotation for next year but Tim Wakefield is a question mark. Having Schilling back as the number 3 starter (he did have a 3.34 ERA post All-Star game this year) would take the pressure off the younger pitchers and would be insurance against injury. There is no pitcher available for free agency that could give the Red Sox such a known quantity at just a one-year deal. If all six starters remain healthy that also gives the Red Sox the flexibility to rest the starters more often which paid big dividends during the playoffs this year. Even though you are over-paying Schilling at $13 million its just for one year and that allows them to wait for the free agent class after next season to add a big arm... If I were Joe Girardi - I would be lighting prayer candles around the clock hoping that Andy Pettitte returned to pitch for the team in 2008. Pettitte is the rock of the Yankees pitching staff. All the other starters have question marks - Wang is so-so away from home, Mussina may be cooked, Hughes is young and has injury issues and Chamberlain may be better suited to the bullpen. The Yankees need Pettitte if they are to contend next year... I'm sure the Red Sox will offer Eric Gagne arbitration. It will be interesting to see down the line what becomes of the draft picks the Red Sox will get when Gagne signs elsewhere... I wasn't aware that Tom Werner was such a disliked person in San Diego. Just knowing that he had anything to do with Rosanne signing that national anthem that time makes my respect for Werner drop several notches...

Hot Stove Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous hot stove baseball thoughts and observations.

The biggest item on the Red Sox offseason "to-do" list is to sign Mike Lowell. I think in spring training they could have gotten a 2-year $20 million deal done but now it will probably be at least 3-years and $40 million. Here's what I wrote about signing Lowell back in April:

One final note - if the Red Sox let Mike Lowell's contract lapse into free agency then they run the risk of being used as a pawn by Scott Boras in his attempt to get A-Rod an even bigger payday. Signing Mike Lowell before the end of the season lets them avoid that circus.

Edgar Renteria traded to Tigers. I like this trade for both teams. The Braves acquire a couple of top prospects and the Tigers fill their top need at short. By shedding Renteria's contract the Braves now have close to $20 million (Renteria's contract and Andruw Jone's money) to sign Mark Teixeira and fill the hole in centerfield. I admit that my first thought when I saw this trade was that the Braves would bring back Marcus Giles at a reduced price and move Kelly Johnson over to short (similar to the Rangers moving Michael Young to short when A-Rod was traded) but that was silly. Giles may have been a fan favorite but his time has past. More likely the Braves will hand short to Yunel Escobar... I just don't see Joe Torre going to the Dodgers. He could easily make as much doing advertisements in New York and occasional talks to business groups as he would make as manager of the Dodgers. Why would he want the headache?

World Series Notes

Miscellaneous World Series thoughts and observations.

The Red Sox now lead the series 3-0 and in the past when a team goes up 3-0 they win the series (22 out of 22 times)... With the series all but over in most people's minds - it is understandable that some folks like myself can't help but think of next year already. I have to say that I feel for Coco Crisp. Sure his offense was so-so this year but his defense was stellar. Every night it seemed you'd see Coco on ESPN's web gems. It is clear though that Jacoby Ellsbury is going to be the starting centerfielder from here on out. Coco has two more years on his contract (with and option for 2010) at reasonable prices - $4.75 million in 2008 and $5.75 million in 2009. Everyone will point to Atlanta, Minnesota and the Phillies as natural trading partners because those teams will likely be losing their centerfielders to free agency. The Red Sox will most likely trade Coco for prospects but why not shoot for the moon and offer Crisp, Jon Lester and a prospect to the Twins for Johan Santana?... I think Eric Gangne may even be booed during the celebration parade... I'm hoping that the Red Sox sweep and that Jon Lester gets the win. Can you imagine how inspirational that will be (not that Lester isn't already inspirational) to cancer patients all over the country (and world)? Even if you hate "Red Sox Nation" - you have to root for this guy... Its at the point now that when I see Mike Lowell on TV - I hear the Teddy KGB character from Rounders say, "Pay that man his money"... Professional sports journalists at work:

Reporter (to Francona): Since you came back from down 3 games to the Yankees, what advice... ummm... even though you don't want to help them... could you give Colorado?

Francona: I don't know how to answer this... I really don't want them to win. (laughter) I mean really, what kind of a question is that?

Everybody on the Red Sox has played so well that it will be difficult to pick an MVP. Let me just throw this out there but Jacoby Ellsbury just may be the front runner for the award right now. Of course if it gets to a game 5 and Josh Beckett shuts the Rockies down again - then there will be no question at all about who gets the award... Assuming the Red Sox re-sign Lowell and Curt Schilling ($13 million one-year) then the two biggest needs are another reliever and a back-up catcher. There is a good chance that Boston could turn to Japan to fill those two positions. Boston is getting to be very big in Japan.... Howard Bryant has a nice column up on the current state of the Red Sox.

Red Sox Magic Number - 20

With the Red Sox beating the Orioles and the Yankees losing to the Devil Rays - the Red Sox magic number is now 20 or as Abraham Lincoln would say "a score".

The number 20 is currently worn by 1st baseman Kevin Youkilis. Preseason and even during the season there was much talk that the Red Sox would shift Youkilis back to 3rd base because of a trade for the Rockies' Todd Helton which would have sent Mike Lowell to Colorado (along with Julian Tavarez). Its a good thing for the Red Sox that trade was never made. Never mind the huge contract the Red Sox would have been taking on with Helton (even though Colorado would be paying a large share) - take a look at the production.

Lowell - .329 BA / 63 R / 17 HR / 95 RBI / .891 OPS
Youkilis - .291 BA / 78 R / 15 HR / 75 RBI / .856 OPS
Helton - .306 BA / 66 R / 12 HR / 70 RBI / .888 OPS

There would not have been any appreciable upgrade at the plate and as far as defense is concerned - Kevin Youkilis has not made a single error at 1st this season. How could you improve on that?

I like Todd Helton but I'm liking Mike Lowell better and I really hope the Red Sox re-sign Lowell for another year or two.

Just as an aside on Kevin Youkilis - some people wanted to nickname him "Jelly" because his initials are K-Y but that nickname did not stick. Maybe they should call him "Ribbed (for the Pitcher's Pleasure)" for the way he's always getting hit by a pitch.