MLB Hot Stove

With officially 150 days till 2015's Opening Day here's the first of what I'm sure will be many Hot Stove thoughts.

- I wonder if the Nationals would entertain an offer of 3-years of Clay Buchholz for free-agent to be Doug Fister? I think Buchholz would benefit from a change of scenery.

- Speaking of Boston trade targets - how about Jeff Samardzija of the A's? It would be just like Billy Bean to flip an asset like that. What does Oakland need?

- Troy Tulowitzki's agent comments on the Rockies potentially trading Tulo. Read the comments. Never realized the venom some Colorado fans have towards Tulowitzki. And comparing him to Gretzky, Shaq and Joe Montana? Jeez.

- I would agree with this sentiment.

- For the record - I am sick of stories on A-Rod. To paraphrase Jason Varitek "I don't read about .240 hitters."

Player Comparison

This player comparison struck me when I was reading Matt Snyder's Hall of Fame case for Edgar Martinez.

Edgar Martinez - 2055 G/  8674 AB/ .312 BA/ .418 OBP/ .515 SLG/ .933 OPS/ 147 OPS+
Player A -           2247 G/ 9453 AB/ .316 BA/ .414 OBP/ .539 SLG/ .953 OPS/ 133 OPS+

Player A actually played one fewer season than Edgar but was able to stay more consistently healthy during his career so that he was able to be in the field more often for his team. That has a value all its own. Snyder wrote that Martinez was the opposite of a compiler yet Player A was able to accumulate more runs, hits, doubles, triples, HR, RBI, and total bases in let me say again - one fewer season.

Many baseball scribes are writing that an anti-DH bias may hurt Edgar but there may just be the opposite effect in that some writers may vote for him just to prove they aren't biased against the DH. Player A also will be a victim of bias since he played all his home games at Coors Field. Yet I don't think any writer will go out of his way to show he doesn't hold that against a player's career.

Player A is Todd Helton who won a Gold Glove at first base (it should be mentioned). I am curious to see how the voting for the two players compares.

Tulo to Red Sox

Ken Rosenthal had an article saying that the Colorado Rockies should listen to offers for Troy Tulowitzki. He mentioned the Cardinals as possible trade partners. Ever since reading the Rosenthal article - I've kept wondering "What about Tulo to the Red Sox?"

The Red Sox have top prospect Xander Bogaerts ready to take over for Stephen Drew if Drew moves on via free agency but Bogaerts could just as easily shift to third. What about Will Middlebrooks who was the Red Sox opening day 3rd baseman last season and is on track to be so again next season? Put him in a package with Felix Dubront (an MLB ready starter with 4 more years of team control), Allen Webster (the key prospect the Dodgers gave up for Adrian Gonzalez) and one AA prospect. That's a pretty good 4 for 1 package.

For the Rockies - they get 4 cost effective players including a potential 30-HR 3rd baseman who can play right now in Middlebrooks. Colorado already has 22-year old Nolan Arenado at third and he just won the NL Gold Glove for 3rd basemen. The solution is simple - just move Arenado over to short. He used to be a shortstop and he doesn't have the pop in the bat that you'd want from a corner playing half his games at Coors Field. Dubront would immediately become the Rockies number 3 starter and Webster could be a number 1 some day.

For the Red Sox - they get a proven player who has a career road OPS of .819 - as a shortstop! Tulo's career home OPS at Coors is .934 which is like Big Papi at Fenway. Tulo could play short to start then as he gets older move to third, first or DH.

Of course as Rosenthal says - right now the Rockies say Tulowitzki is unavailable. The Red Sox should dangle my proposed package and see if they change their mind.

Linky Links

Stuff I found interesting and thought I'd share.

Very Cool - Single A team shows fans that there's more to Jamie Moyer than they know

Interesting recap of all the killings in Season 3 of Justified

Arctic ice caps are melting! Well now that we look at the data - not so much

The Dalai Lama loves George W. Bush. World leaders keep saying great things about George W. Bush. Do you think it will be the same for Barack Obama once he's out of office?

Todd Helton

I don't think Todd Helton gets his proper recognition. People discount him because they think he is just a product of Coors Field. I don't argue that Helton didn't post some awesome numbers at his home field but the same can be said of many many Hall of Famers.

Consider this, however, George Brett had a career OPS of .857 while Todd Helton has a career road OPS of .873. The stat of OPS+ is supposed to take into account park factors and when a player spent his career. This leveling stat has Brett at an OPS+ of 135 while Helton is at 137.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Delaying the Floyd Mayweather-Manny Pacquiao fight just serves to further slowly kill boxing as a sport. I hang with sports fans and none can name the heavyweight boxing champ. Most of these same guys know Brock Lesnar is the UFC champ. And honestly, Mayweather and Pacquiao are probably the only two boxers I could name right now... Awesome Pictures of Alaska. I think I could actually see Russia from one of the pictures... Next week the Rockies will have to face Josh Johnson on Thursday and then Roy Halladay on Friday - both on the road. That's a killer schedule... This is an awesome wine glass. If only it was a little bigger so you could fit ice cubes in it... It is tough to beat the first sip of a really cold beer on a hot summer day... Heh heh - Advice for young Girls from The Little Mermaid... RocknRolla is a very under rated movie. I hope they go through with the sequel. I've slowly become a Guy Ritchie fan... Mad Men thought for the day. The first thing Betsy learned from Henry Francis is that when you don't have the power - you delay. I think she was planning divorce for some time - even before their trip to Rome. She finally acted when she thought she had the power because of her knowledge of Don's past... I did not know this! Chris Farley was the original voice of Shrek. Almost a year after Farley died, Mike Myers took on the role... Hard to believe but Miguel Olivo of the Rockies is having a better year offensively than the Twins Joe Mauer. Olivo has more HR, more RBI and better BA, OBP and SLG numbers than Mauer... In the history of bad free agent signings - ESPN signing Rick Reilly has to be near the top of the list.

Pick of the Day

Today's pick of the day (POTD) is the Rockies over the Nationals. The price is high (Rockies -$200) but I feel pretty good about this one. Jason Marquis is starting for the Rox and Washington has struggled against Colorado.

POTD record - 8-3 and plus a mythical $453

World Series Notes

Miscellaneous World Series thoughts and observations.

The Red Sox now lead the series 3-0 and in the past when a team goes up 3-0 they win the series (22 out of 22 times)... With the series all but over in most people's minds - it is understandable that some folks like myself can't help but think of next year already. I have to say that I feel for Coco Crisp. Sure his offense was so-so this year but his defense was stellar. Every night it seemed you'd see Coco on ESPN's web gems. It is clear though that Jacoby Ellsbury is going to be the starting centerfielder from here on out. Coco has two more years on his contract (with and option for 2010) at reasonable prices - $4.75 million in 2008 and $5.75 million in 2009. Everyone will point to Atlanta, Minnesota and the Phillies as natural trading partners because those teams will likely be losing their centerfielders to free agency. The Red Sox will most likely trade Coco for prospects but why not shoot for the moon and offer Crisp, Jon Lester and a prospect to the Twins for Johan Santana?... I think Eric Gangne may even be booed during the celebration parade... I'm hoping that the Red Sox sweep and that Jon Lester gets the win. Can you imagine how inspirational that will be (not that Lester isn't already inspirational) to cancer patients all over the country (and world)? Even if you hate "Red Sox Nation" - you have to root for this guy... Its at the point now that when I see Mike Lowell on TV - I hear the Teddy KGB character from Rounders say, "Pay that man his money"... Professional sports journalists at work:

Reporter (to Francona): Since you came back from down 3 games to the Yankees, what advice... ummm... even though you don't want to help them... could you give Colorado?

Francona: I don't know how to answer this... I really don't want them to win. (laughter) I mean really, what kind of a question is that?

Everybody on the Red Sox has played so well that it will be difficult to pick an MVP. Let me just throw this out there but Jacoby Ellsbury just may be the front runner for the award right now. Of course if it gets to a game 5 and Josh Beckett shuts the Rockies down again - then there will be no question at all about who gets the award... Assuming the Red Sox re-sign Lowell and Curt Schilling ($13 million one-year) then the two biggest needs are another reliever and a back-up catcher. There is a good chance that Boston could turn to Japan to fill those two positions. Boston is getting to be very big in Japan.... Howard Bryant has a nice column up on the current state of the Red Sox.

There Has to be a Morning After

Last night I missed the first 3 and a half innings of game 1 of the World Series because I'm traveling in Atlanta and I was at a business dinner. I ended up missing the last two innings because I fell asleep in my hotel room. I'm completely fine with what I saw of the game.

I missed the first 3 and a half inning because of the business dinner but I'm not complaining. The dinner was at the Atlanta Grill which is at the Ritz Carlton. The food was unbelievable. I had the duck. More importantly the dinner went very well business wise.

It was 4-1 at the Red Sox were at bat in the 4th when I got back to my hotel room. I saw the Sawx score 2 in the 4th and tack on 7 more in the 5th. It was 13-1 and I was not surprised at all that the Red Sox got to Jeff Francis the same way they got to Cleveland's CC Sabathia. However, is it the mark of a New England fan that this blowout actually made me nervous?

My thoughts drifted back to the 1985 Boston Celtics who blew out the Los Angeles Lakers 148-114 in game 1 of the World Championship but ended up losing the series 4 games to 2. I know I shouldn't be nervous and that the 2007 Red Sox are not the 1985 Celtics and certainly the 2007 Rockies are not the 1985 Lakers which was one the best NBA teams ever assembled (with a starting five of Kareem Abdul-Jabaar, James Worthy, Magic Johnson, Byron Scott and Michael Cooper). Still the thought has been planted in the back of my brain.

Today's Red Sox have Josh Beckett who has quickly become one of the best playoff pitchers in history. Last night's win improved Beckett's playoff record to 6-2 (in 9 starts) and lowered his post-season ERA to 1.73. Amazingly Beckett gives up an earned run in the playoffs as often as he walks a hitter (14 post season earned runs and 14 post season walks). A team with Josh Beckett pitching in the playoffs just seems to be invulnerable to losing. Beckett's teams are 5-0 in playoff series. Then again those 1985 Celtics had Larry Bird (sorry can't help it.)

I should make it back home in time to catch the Boston College kickoff. You know I'm looking forward to working the remote tonight. As far as the title of this post is concerned - no I am not a closet Maureen McGovern fan. The phrase just popped into my head and seemed to fit.

World Series Notes

Some thoughts on the upcoming World Series.

- Many people are putting the Rockies hopes on team ace Jeff Francis who had 5 scoreless innings in the Rockies trip to Fenway during Interleague play. It has to be noted that historically left-handed pitchers don't do well at Fenway and this is especially true during the playoffs (let's call this strike one). Francis will be matched up against perhaps the biggest playoff money pitcher in modern history in Josh Beckett (strike two). Do people have such short memories that they forget that the same hopes that are being put on Francis are exactly the same as the hopes Cleveland fans put on CC Sabathia who also had a sparkling regular season outing at Fenway to his credit (strike three). I just don't see the hopes of Francis as the horse to ride to victory being justified by reality.

- SI's John Donovan compares the two teams, position by position and decides that the Red Sox will win in 5 games.

- If I ran a casino - I would have a prop bet that allowed you to either take the number of runs the Red Sox will score in the World Series or the number of points the Patriots will score against the Redskins on Sunday. I think the two numbers will be fairly close.

- Part of me wonders what baseball would be doing if the Padres beat the Rockies and they went on the run to the World Series instead of Colorado. Would the World Series be put off for a week because of the wildfires in California?

- I also have to say that I think the Rockies decision to pitch Josh Fogg in game 3 in Colorado instead of game 2 in Boston is a mistake. Fogg grew up in Lynn, MA and has pitched in Fenway before. Fogg also does much better on the road than at home (4.15 road ERA vs a 5.97 home ERA this season). Ubaldo Jimenez has never pitched at Fenway and will be asked to face players he probably grew up idolizing like fellow Dominicans Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. I think this is a mistake.

World Series Predictions

Here are my predictions about the upcoming World Series between the Rockies and Red Sox;

- I see the Red Sox winning in 5-6 games. This is no fanboy prediction. When you look at it dispassionately you see that the Red Sox have the advantage in just about every phase of the game. The Vegas betting line has the Red Sox as a -$225 favorite (meaning you would have to risk $225 to win $100). That's a prohibitive favorite.

- Some topics will get beat to death in the media such as the chance of snow and the trade that almost sent Todd Helton to the Red Sox. Don't waste your time on any articles you see regarding either subject and make a mental note about the author of such articles. Its an indication they don't have the imagination or insight enough to come up with anything better.

- Much will be made about the Rockies historic winning streak but it is their lack of playoff experience that will be a bigger factor. People will point to Arizona beating the playoff tested Yankees as proof to refute this point but the Rockies don't have two Hall of Fame starters in their primes to ride to victory like the Diamondbacks did. The World Series will be overwhelming for a team that is made up of players who have never been to a Fall Classic and especially for a team that has lived a pretty much media blackout existence for most of the year. It will be overwhelming whether they admit it or not.

- Strikeouts will maybe be the most important stat to monitor. Some good analysis at Sports Frog on the series but one thing jumped out at me. In his reasoning Nick uses sOPS to compare pitching staffs in the macro but then uses percentages in the micro. Red Sox pitchers struck out 18.93% of hitters while Colorado hurlers struck out 15.37%. That's a pretty big advantage for the Red Sox but in actuality its even bigger because the Red Sox pitchers did that against lineups with a DH while the Rockies were able to pad their strikeout numbers against pitchers trying to hit. The bare percentages don't take league factors into account. As much as any factor - the Red Sox won the ALCS because they put the ball into play more often than the Indians (who struck out an amazing 63 times).

- Josh Fogg will either have a stellar outing in game two or he'll get shelled. There will be no middle ground. Fogg grew up in Lynn, Lynn, the city of sin (you never come out the way you went in) and I'm sure dreamed of playing in a World Series at Fenway Park. My head says he gets shelled but my gut says he goes 7 innings and gives up just 2 or 3 cheap runs.

Another Reason to Root for the Rockies

This is an excellent story:

The widow of Rockies minor league coach Mike Coolbaugh, who died after getting hit by a line drive this season, will be granted a full share of the team's playoff winnings after a team vote.