World Series Predictions

Here are my predictions about the upcoming World Series between the Rockies and Red Sox;

- I see the Red Sox winning in 5-6 games. This is no fanboy prediction. When you look at it dispassionately you see that the Red Sox have the advantage in just about every phase of the game. The Vegas betting line has the Red Sox as a -$225 favorite (meaning you would have to risk $225 to win $100). That's a prohibitive favorite.

- Some topics will get beat to death in the media such as the chance of snow and the trade that almost sent Todd Helton to the Red Sox. Don't waste your time on any articles you see regarding either subject and make a mental note about the author of such articles. Its an indication they don't have the imagination or insight enough to come up with anything better.

- Much will be made about the Rockies historic winning streak but it is their lack of playoff experience that will be a bigger factor. People will point to Arizona beating the playoff tested Yankees as proof to refute this point but the Rockies don't have two Hall of Fame starters in their primes to ride to victory like the Diamondbacks did. The World Series will be overwhelming for a team that is made up of players who have never been to a Fall Classic and especially for a team that has lived a pretty much media blackout existence for most of the year. It will be overwhelming whether they admit it or not.

- Strikeouts will maybe be the most important stat to monitor. Some good analysis at Sports Frog on the series but one thing jumped out at me. In his reasoning Nick uses sOPS to compare pitching staffs in the macro but then uses percentages in the micro. Red Sox pitchers struck out 18.93% of hitters while Colorado hurlers struck out 15.37%. That's a pretty big advantage for the Red Sox but in actuality its even bigger because the Red Sox pitchers did that against lineups with a DH while the Rockies were able to pad their strikeout numbers against pitchers trying to hit. The bare percentages don't take league factors into account. As much as any factor - the Red Sox won the ALCS because they put the ball into play more often than the Indians (who struck out an amazing 63 times).

- Josh Fogg will either have a stellar outing in game two or he'll get shelled. There will be no middle ground. Fogg grew up in Lynn, Lynn, the city of sin (you never come out the way you went in) and I'm sure dreamed of playing in a World Series at Fenway Park. My head says he gets shelled but my gut says he goes 7 innings and gives up just 2 or 3 cheap runs.