Trade Proposal

There's a trade proposal that's been bouncing around my head for quite some time now. The Baltimore Orioles have said they want to shed payroll and are open to trading both closer Jim Johnson and catcher Matt Wieters. The Red Sox don't need a closer but a catcher like Matt Wieters would certainly be worth exploring.

I know the odds are slim that the Orioles would make a trade to improve a division rival but there has been precedent. Most notably in my mind was the Mike Boddicker trade that sent Curt Schilling and Brady Anderson to the Orioles. It could happen again and I keep thinking this could be a trade could make sense for both teams.

Matt Wieters would be a great fit for the Red Sox. He has two years left before free agency which would be the perfect amount of time for Boston before one of its two stud catching prospects (Blake Swihart and Christian Vazquez) are ready to take the reins. David Ross is only really good for 60 games per year and he's only signed for one more year. Wieters could come in and have a relaxing year for him (he led the AL in games caught last year) and the next year he could mentor Swihart or Vazquez as one of them back him up in his year heading into free agency.

Wieters is perhaps the best defensive catcher in the AL (Gold Gloves in 2011 and 2012). He's hit more than 20 HR in three straight years. He'd be an upgrade over Jarrod Saltalamcchia and salary wise - he would be cheaper with arbitration probably getting Wieters $8.5 million next year and maybe $10.5 in 2015. Salty's probably going to get a 3-year $30 million deal at the least in free agency.

What would be in it for Baltimore? I'd suggest trading catcher Ryan Lavarnway who right now is probably going to catch the majority of the games next year but who would be extraneous with the arrival of Wieters and starter Felix Dubront. Both players are just 26 and both under team control for at least another 4 years. Dubront could be the 3rd starter right away for the Orioles and Lavarnway could be their starting backstop. Both are also very cheap and the two in exchange for Wieters would save Baltimore more than $10 million in 2014 alone when you factor in what a starting pitcher is going for in the free agency market.

It should also be noted that Wieters agent is Scott Boras - so Baltimore knows they are probably going to lose him to free agency anyway. Why not trade him now and get more than just a draft pick for him (especially now when they could use salary relief)?

A deal worth thinking about.

Tulo to Red Sox

Ken Rosenthal had an article saying that the Colorado Rockies should listen to offers for Troy Tulowitzki. He mentioned the Cardinals as possible trade partners. Ever since reading the Rosenthal article - I've kept wondering "What about Tulo to the Red Sox?"

The Red Sox have top prospect Xander Bogaerts ready to take over for Stephen Drew if Drew moves on via free agency but Bogaerts could just as easily shift to third. What about Will Middlebrooks who was the Red Sox opening day 3rd baseman last season and is on track to be so again next season? Put him in a package with Felix Dubront (an MLB ready starter with 4 more years of team control), Allen Webster (the key prospect the Dodgers gave up for Adrian Gonzalez) and one AA prospect. That's a pretty good 4 for 1 package.

For the Rockies - they get 4 cost effective players including a potential 30-HR 3rd baseman who can play right now in Middlebrooks. Colorado already has 22-year old Nolan Arenado at third and he just won the NL Gold Glove for 3rd basemen. The solution is simple - just move Arenado over to short. He used to be a shortstop and he doesn't have the pop in the bat that you'd want from a corner playing half his games at Coors Field. Dubront would immediately become the Rockies number 3 starter and Webster could be a number 1 some day.

For the Red Sox - they get a proven player who has a career road OPS of .819 - as a shortstop! Tulo's career home OPS at Coors is .934 which is like Big Papi at Fenway. Tulo could play short to start then as he gets older move to third, first or DH.

Of course as Rosenthal says - right now the Rockies say Tulowitzki is unavailable. The Red Sox should dangle my proposed package and see if they change their mind.

Red Sox Offseason Moves - Pitchers

Here's my take on the Red Sox pitching staff for 2014. I'm assuming that the team will carry 12 pitchers and I'm also guessing one big name will be traded.

The starting pitching staff has 6 proven starters vying for 5 spots. Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and John Lackey are givens. That leaves Jake Peavy, Ryan Dempster and Felix Dubront fighting for the 4th and 5th starter spots. That also leaves an interesting question - do you hang on to all three in case someone goes down in spring training? Or do you trade a Peavy, Dempster or a Dubront to ease the logjam?

Peavy ($14.5 million) and Dempster ($13 million) make too much money to be long relievers.  Peavy cost a top prospect to get and he's only going to be 33 this season. My guess is he'd bring the most back in a trade (especially to an NL team). Dempster will be 37 next year but his numbers are just as good as Peavy and probably more durable.

Logic says that just because of salary if the Red Sox trade a starter it should be Peavy or Demspter but I wouldn't be shocked if the Boston front office traded Felix Dubront instead. Felix went 11-6 with a 4.32 ERA last season and is under team control for 4 more seasons. I see his ceiling as a 3rd starter and you know his conditioning and work ethic were in question last spring. Ben Cherington could sell high on Dubront and get back an MLB ready 1st baseman or outfielder in exchange. Boston's farm system is chock full of starters with higher ceilings than Dubront. Keeping Peavy and Demspter for one more season and trading Dubront both eases the logjam and gives those young pitchers another year to develop.

For the seven member bullpen - the Red Sox have the following under contract or team control; Koji Uehara returns as closer, Craig Breslow, Andrew Miller, Andrew Bailey, Junichi Tazawa, and Brandon Workman seems to be a John Farrell favorite. That leaves one spot which could easily come from Drake Britton, Rubby de la Rosa and Franklin Morales.

Boston seems to be in very good position of not even having to dip its toe into the free agent pool to put together its 2014 pitching staff. It will be interesting to see if someone gets traded. And who.