Let's Not Make a Deal

John Donovan of SI has a column up on the Red Sox and Indians basically standing pat this offseason. Three things I think Donovan failed to mention:

1. The Red Sox may still make a deal to trade Coco Crisp now that the Santana deal has been finalized. Coco has said that he doesn't want to be a back-up and Theo has been pretty good at making reasonable player requests come true. If Coco is traded then the standing pat theme is kinda busted.

2. The Red Sox will have much lower payroll going into this year. The Sox payroll will be $15-25 million less than last year depending on what they do with Coco Crisp. Most of that money comes from Matt Clement's contract coming off the books.

3. The Red Sox farm system is still chocked full of prospects. Combine that with the reduced payroll and you have the perfect scenario for a mid-season trade.

Hot Stove

How soon they forget! John Donovan of SI has a pretty good recap of what's transpired in the hot stove season so far. I will take him to task for one thing - no mention of Curt Schilling re-signing with the Red Sox for a very reasonable amount. Schilling was the best available free agent starter and his deal at least should have been mentioned in his "Best risk for the buck" section.

World Series Notes

Some thoughts on the upcoming World Series.

- Many people are putting the Rockies hopes on team ace Jeff Francis who had 5 scoreless innings in the Rockies trip to Fenway during Interleague play. It has to be noted that historically left-handed pitchers don't do well at Fenway and this is especially true during the playoffs (let's call this strike one). Francis will be matched up against perhaps the biggest playoff money pitcher in modern history in Josh Beckett (strike two). Do people have such short memories that they forget that the same hopes that are being put on Francis are exactly the same as the hopes Cleveland fans put on CC Sabathia who also had a sparkling regular season outing at Fenway to his credit (strike three). I just don't see the hopes of Francis as the horse to ride to victory being justified by reality.

- SI's John Donovan compares the two teams, position by position and decides that the Red Sox will win in 5 games.

- If I ran a casino - I would have a prop bet that allowed you to either take the number of runs the Red Sox will score in the World Series or the number of points the Patriots will score against the Redskins on Sunday. I think the two numbers will be fairly close.

- Part of me wonders what baseball would be doing if the Padres beat the Rockies and they went on the run to the World Series instead of Colorado. Would the World Series be put off for a week because of the wildfires in California?

- I also have to say that I think the Rockies decision to pitch Josh Fogg in game 3 in Colorado instead of game 2 in Boston is a mistake. Fogg grew up in Lynn, MA and has pitched in Fenway before. Fogg also does much better on the road than at home (4.15 road ERA vs a 5.97 home ERA this season). Ubaldo Jimenez has never pitched at Fenway and will be asked to face players he probably grew up idolizing like fellow Dominicans Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. I think this is a mistake.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

John Donovan of SI does a position by position comparison for the NLCS and gives pretty much the edge to everything except starting pitching to the Rockies. I'll quibble on a couple of things such as saying Todd Helton is "just OK defensively" and that the Diamondbacks have the "intangibles" going for them (I'd disagree on both of these points). Donovan picks the Rockies in 6 games but with home field advantage and better starting pitching - I still find it tough to pick against the Diamondbacks... There is a pretty good chance that game 1 of the ALCS in Boston could be rained out. This would make it much more difficult to have the game 1 starters also start games 4 and 7 (if necessary) because it would eliminate an off-day between starts. This means the teams probably would be forced to go with 4 starters each which I think gives an edge to Boston since they have a deeper pitching staff. The Red Sox can use Tim Wakefield as their 4th starter with Jon Lester as long relief.... ESPN's Tim Kurkjian picks the Red Sox in 7... I think an aspect that is not discussed enough is how the Indians chose to support manager Eric Wedge in 2004 when they basically picked him over supposedly budding star Milton Bradley (who has never lived up to his supposed talent levels). That decision to trade away the disgruntled Bradley has allowed Cleveland to get to the point they are today - as a cohesive, gruntled unit. It is a lesson that GM's should not forget... David Pinto has an ALCS preview at The Sporting news which focuses in on strikeouts. Largely because Boston pitchers strikeout more batters and Cleveland hitters tend to strikeout more often - Pinto picks the Red Sox in 7 games.... Speaking of strikeouts - I've been meaning to mention the incredible fact that this year Dustin Pedroia has walked 47 times yet struck out just 42 times in 520 at bats. His number of strikeouts is mind numbingly low for a rookie who has a seemingly swing for it all approach at the plate. Which is why I'm bothered by the fact that Pedroia struck out twice against the Angels in the ALDS. If Pedroia can work the counts and not strikeout against the Indians - that's a big advantage in helping to get at Cleveland's bullpen...

Heh Heh

As Homer would say - it's funny because its true!

HT John Donovan at SI.com who is still making the mistake of ranking the Red Sox second even though the Red Sox have the best record in baseball and the last time the Red Sox played the Angels - Boston outscored the LAA of A 25 to 3.

Donovan on Clemens

SI's John Donovan agrees that Clemens in New York does not a World Series Champion guaranty.

Really, the Yankees? Heck, a week ago, the Yankees were ready to fire their manager. A week ago, this team was being buried alive. Just last Friday, in fact, they blew a 5-0 lead, gave up eight runs in one inning and lost 15-11. To the Mariners. Nobody should lose like that. Not to the Mariners.

This is Clemens' choice? The man either has a lot of misguided faith in that team or an unhealthy belief in his own ability to change the course of baseball events.