Linky Links

Stuff I found interesting or amusing and thought I'd share.

- Royals fan successfully demonstrates "Irish handcuffs"

- Anthony Bourdain's life advice

- Heh heh - NFL vs NBA?

- Excellent fracking rant! "The industry has better stuff to do than argue with self-righteous morons." Words to live by.

- Interesting Star Wars backstories. Imagine Christopher Walken as Han Solo?

Royals / Rays Trade

Jeff Passan (a favorite) has a very good breakdown of the big trade that just sent James Shields to the Royals and uber prospect Wil Myers to the Rays.

This trade very much reminds me of the trade that send Josh Beckett to the Red Sox and uber prospect Hanley Ramirez to the Marlins. That trade ended up being a win for both teams. The Red Sox got a final piece that allowed them to meet their goal of winning the World Series while the Marlins got a young superstar under team control. The extra piece that ended up giving value way beyond what was expected in that trade was Mike Lowell who would go on to become the World Series MVP for Boston. Wade Davis is giving off that vibe for me in this trade for Kansas City. Please note that I'm not saying Shields is the final piece for a Royals World Series - their goal is simply to be competitive in the AL Central and I think this trade helps them with that goal.

It should also be noted that if sabermetric GM Theo Epstein was in place at the time for Boston then that trade may never have happened and the Red Sox could still be searching for their second Series win. Point is sometimes sabermetrics doesn't tell the whole story. I consider myself a stats guy but I also realize that games aren't won on the spreadsheet.

Linky Links

Stuff I found interesting or amusing and thought I'd share.

- Jon Lester for Wil Myers? Alex Speier has an excellent look at the hypothetical (at this point) deal. For the record - if I'm the Red Sox I probably make that trade.

- A's donate one full playoff share to charity. Nice idea by Jonny Gomes and nice gesture by entire A's team.

- Holy crap! That's a bird straight out of a Stephen King horror story. Feathers the size of Samurai swords! Holy crap!

- Nice look at Notre Dame's head coach Brian Kelly's ability to adapt. Of course they forget to mention that everything Brian Kelly knows about football - he learned at Assumption College in Worcester.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

Gil Meche retired yesterday and some people are praising him for putting his family happiness ahead of the $12 million remaining on his contract. I think my family would have been happier if I took the $12 million... The Red Sox signed Jonathan Papelbon and Jacoby Ellsbury to one-year deals yesterday to avoid arbitration. Papelbon got $12 million and the consensus is that this will be his last season with the Red Sox. I would agree but not for the same reasons many think. The Sox have positioned Daniel Bard to be the closer in waiting with Bobby Jenks as insurance. Next year the Red Sox won't want to pay Papelbon what he'll think he's worth so they will let him walk. They will also covet the draft picks that will come for him as a Type A free agent. They will rid themselves of him and not the other way around... When you look at the stats - Gil Meche was basically same pitcher as Matt Clement except Meche was 30 pounds heavier and $10 million richer. Gil Meche was also basically the same as Kris Benson - 84-83 with a 4.49 ERA for Meche vs Kris Benson's 70-75 with a 4.42 ERA. Benson was the same player who just got less fanfare when he announced his retirement last week... To illustrate why those draft picks (a 1st and a sandwich) would be so important to the Red Sox if they were to let Papelbon walk next season consider Jacoby Ellsbury who signed a $2.4 million deal with the Red Sox yesterday was drafted in 2005 with a pick that was compensation for losing Orlando Cabrera to the Angels. Jed Lowrie, who could be the starting shortstop this year, was also compensation in 2005 for Anaheim signing Orlando Cabrera. Lowrie was the sandwich pick... LAPD confirms Milton Bradley was arrested for violating California penal code section 422 - making a "criminal threat". The Royals may have saved $12 million in 2011 with Meche retiring and now the Mariners may have just saved $12 million too with Milton Bradley being Milton Bradley... I can't believe this is true but I read yesterday that the Twins offered Francisco Liriano $5 million and he countered with $3.6 million. I wonder if this guy was Liriano's agent.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

Even if Jamie Moyer gets to 300 wins - does that make him a Hall of Famer? His ERA will most likely be north of 4.22. I know he'll be a very sentimental choice but Bert Blyleven was a better pitcher and he's been kept out... Surprising - no team in the AL has more hits than the Kansas City Royals (786). That's 15 more hits than the Rangers and 16 more than the Red Sox... Things are so bad for Joba Chamberlain that even Yankees fans are making meth jokes about his mom... Before the season started I made 2 bets with a Yankees fan buddy of mine. First that John Lackey would have more wins than AJ Burnett and secondly that Lackey would have a better ERA. I'm ahead in both bets but both players have pretty much sucked... I was fooled by Casey Kotchman. I thought he'd have a breakout season for the Mariners instead he's hit just .187 with a measly 3 HR... Dear Manny Delcarmen and Ramon Ramirez - would you mind if the Red Sox paid you in gum?

Linky Links

Some stuff I found interesting and thought I'd share.

- Antibacterial soap not good.

- I can't watch the Royals without thinking of this George Brett video. And as a coincidence - the Red Sox collectively shat their pants last night.

- The Other Guys - looks pretty funny

- Self-inflicted snow wedgie

- 50 funny TV screen shots

- Star Wars characters represented as samurai from traditional Japanese art

- Origin of all 30 MLB team nicknames

- 10 interesting things about JRR Tolkien

- Carlsberg staff strike over ban on drinking at work - as an aside - I always thought Carlsberg was a crappy beer

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

It's tough to evaluate a trade involving prospects because you never can tell how a prospect will pan out. For example - Baseball America rated the Rays Reid Brignac as the 17th best MLB prospect in 2007 and the 39th best in 2008. Now he's not even Tampa Bays best SS prospect. If you had traded for him two years ago you could boast that you netted the 17th best prospect in all of baseball. If you traded for him yesterday - not so much... Quote of the Day: "To do justice to a great man, discriminating criticism is always necessary." Winston Churchill... The Kansas City Royals haven't made the playoffs since 1985. Days like yesterday when they do nothing make that possible... Yesterday super prospect Brandon Wood of the Angels was sent back to AAA Salt Lake where he's hit 17 HR with a .959 OPS. The question remains if he can hit MLB pitching. In the bigs he's hit just .187 in 209 plate appearances... French proverb that best describes dynamics of the MLB trade deadline "In love there is always one who kisses and one who offers the cheek". Yesterday JP Riccardi didn't offer anyone his cheek when it came to Roy Halladay... I've seen Ryan Fitzpatrick when he was at Harvard. I've seen Joe Flacco when he was at Delaware. I'm telling you today that Dominic Randolph of Holy Cross is a better QB than either of them... Just a reminder - I called Jake Peavy getting traded 9 days ago. Makes me laugh when I see Buster Olney saying "nobody saw this coming" on ESPN...

Lugo vs Betancourt

The Mariners wanted to dump Yuniesky Betancourt and - voila! - the Royals obliged by taking his contract off their hands. The Royals gave up a couple of flotsam and jetsam prospects and will have to pay just $7 million of Betancourt's remaining contract ($2 mil in 2010, $3 million in 2011 and a $2 mil buyout in 2012). Joe Posnanski explains just how horrible Betancourt really is.

Reviewing the facts - I have to wonder where the Red Sox were on this deal? They are just as anxious to dump Julio Lugo and despite Lugo's current reputation - he's a much better player than Betancourt.

Fielding - Lugo has a -6.8 URZ this year and a -1.2 in 2008 but he's also been injured. What excuse does Betancourt have for his -8.3 2009 and -12.6 2008 numbers?

Base Running - Lugo is 15 for 19 in stolen base attempts the past two years. Betancourt is 7 for 12 in the same time period.

Hitting - Lugo may not be a great hitter but he's still better than Betancourt.

Sure Lugo is much older but honestly either player is just a rental for the Royals and the Red Sox could have made the finances work so that the Royals would be stuck for just $7 million overall for Lugo (same as Betancourt). Lugo's the better player for the Royals. I think this was a missed opportunity for the Red Sox to shed Lugo's contract.

Pick of the Day

Today I have a bit of a quandary. I'm trying to narrow my pick of the day (POTD) down from three choices which all have their own merits.

Choice 1 - Brazil over the USA in soccer. I think this game is a lock but I feel queezey betting against the US and the line at -$350 for Brazil would really punish me if I'm wrong.

Choice 2 - Kansas City with Zach Greinke pitching over the Pirates. The price is a bit high for a road team (KC -$150) but I think Greinke will dominate the Pittsburgh lineup.

Choice 3 - Tigers with Edwin Jackson (-$131) over Houston with Ancient Mariner Russ Ortiz taking the hill. The Tigers burned me the other night by blowing a 4 run lead against the Astros and Edwin Jackson always seems to bite me when I pick him or pick against him (if he was a college football team he'd be Syracuse).

Compromise is the answer I think. Today's POTD is a parlay using Brazil and Kansas City. Risking $100 would bring back $114.

POTD record 3-1 - plus $181.

The Not-So Killer G's

We are the killer bees. Give us all your honey! - John Belushi from a 1976 SNL skit

My buddy Bill pointed out to me that 7 of the 15 players that Kansas City used yesterday had last names that began with the letter G. When he mentioned that to me I made a crack about the "not-so killer G's".

As I reflect I think a better crack would have been a Sesame Street slant of "this loss brought to you by the letter G."

Kansas City Royals

This morning right before waking up - I had a dream where I owned the Kansas City Royals. I have no idea why I would have such a dream but it got me thinking - what would I do if I did own the Kansas City Royals?

Well the first thing I would do would be to hire Bill James as a Sr. VP to help consult with me and find ways for the Royals to maximize their meager assets. I'm thinking James would take the job because he's a Royals fan. I'd keep Dayton Moore as GM and Buddy Bell as manager but I would tinker with the roster.

Last year the Royals had a payroll of about $67 million but there's over $32 million that could come off this offseason. The money would come from:

Mike Sweeney - $11 million
Odalis Perez - $7.75 million
Jason LaRue - $5.2 million
Reggie Sanders - $5 million
Emil Brown - $3.45 million

There is a good core of young players to build around. The core includes (with ages in parenthesis):

Alex Gordon 3rd (23)
Mark Teahen RF (25)
Billy Butler DH (21)

Gil Meche SP (28)
Brian Bannister SP (26)

The major needs would be LF and 3rd starter. I would probably take a risk on Bobby Kielty for LF (or maybe Eric Hinske and possibly both). I figure Kielty and/or Hinske would cost less than $10 million over 2 years. For the 3rd starter I would take a risk on either Kris Benson or Matt Clement (whoever had the better medical prognosis). My thinking on 3rd starter is that either one of those guys need a season where they could get a lot of starts to show that they are back at top levels. They would come relatively cheap and if they showed lots of progress by the All-Star game then they could be dangled for prospects.

Overall I think the Royals should be competitive - not win the division competitive but at least .500 competitive next season. Dayton Moore has them moving in the right direction but if I were owner - I'd take all the credit.

Dotel to Braves

The Braves have acquired closer Octavio Dotel from the Royals in exchange for young starter Kyle Davies. This seems like another win-win trade for the Braves.

I don't think Dotel can handle the pressure of being a closer but he seems to thrive in a set-up role. I also think that Kyle Davies has better stuff than his 4-8 record and 5.76 ERA would indicate.

Let's be honest - from the moment the Royals signed Dotel to a 1-year $5 million deal (with a player's option in 2008) everyone knew the plan was to trade him at the trade deadline. The Royals got a soon to be 24-year old starting pitcher. The Royals can take a risk on Davies in the rotation next year and if he fails - hey just release him or send him to AAA. If the Royals, on the other hand, can help Davies overcome his early game problems (his ERA in his first 30 pitches is over 10.45 for his career) then they could have a real keeper.

I have to wonder if Liberty Media is behind this buying spree by the Braves or at least is OKing the moves? The Braves as an asset were pretty much lost among all the other Time Warner holdings but as a Liberty Media property they get a much higher corporate profile.

Kansas City Royals Trade Possibilities

With the trade deadline looming on the horizon - I will try to take a look at what chips some of the teams who are out of playoff contention may put in play. Earlier I looked at the Baltimore Orioles and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Today I will take a look what players from the Royals may hit the market.

- Reggie Sanders has been suffering from a torn hamstring and has been on the DL since May. If he can make it back before the end of the July then it is very likely he'll be traded (but that seems to be a big "if"). Sanders is in the last year of a 2-year $10 million contract and unlikely to be in the plans for the Royals in 2008. He's a veteran guy who can supply both a veteran presence and some pop at the plate. My favorite Sanders trivia bit is the fact that he is among only six players in MLB history to have both 300 HR and 300 stolen bases (and no Rickey Henderson is not one of the six).

- Octavio Dotel - what team in the playoff hunt couldn't use someone for their bullpen or to be closer insurance? Dotel was signed for just one year for $5 million. The Indians and Rockies are said to be interested and I'd probably add the Phillies to that list. Personally, I'm not sold on Dotel as a player who can flourish in a high pressure environment.

- Mike Sweeney - he's about to be 34-years old and his best days are behind him. At this point he's basically just a DH. Sweeney has spent his entire career with the Royals and is in the last year of his 5-year $55 million contract. Given that he's on the DL and expected to be out of action for most of August - I'm guessing that if he is traded it will be after the trade deadline. The Mariners or Angels may take a risk on Sweeney if they can get him in a waiver deal. Keep in mind that Sweeney can veto any trade since he's a 10/5 guy.

- Odalis Perez - the Royals would love to offload Odalis Perez but who would take his contract?

David Riske could also be on the auction blocks but I think if the Royals trade Dotel (which I think they will) that Riske slots in as the Royals closer for the rest of 2007 and maybe for 2008 (he's under contract for just $2.25 million for 2008). I also don't see them trading Zack Greinke who is still too young to give up on and who I think needs to avoid high pressure franchises like the plague.