Top 5 - Offseason MLB Moves

Here's what I see as the Top 5 MLB offseason moves - so far!

1. Doug Fister to Nationals and Steve Lombardozzi, Robbie Ray and Ian Krol to Detroit. This wasn't even a five nickels for a quarter deal. This was three nickels for a quarter. Fister would be THE ace on half the teams in baseball and the Tigers got a bench guy, a bullpen guy and a AA guy in return for him. Absolute steal by the Nationals.
2. Robinson Cano - signs 10-year $240 million free agent deal with the Mariners. Cano got PAID!
3. Mark Trumbo to Diamondbacks, Adam Eaton to White Sox while Angels get starters Tyler Scaggs and Hector Santiago. A potential 40-HR guy, a starting centerfielder, and two starting pitchers. Most impactful deal for three teams so far.
4. Yankees trade Robinson Cano for Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann. OK so it wasn't actually a trade but I sure feels like one doesn't it? Question - if someone made this trade in your fantasy baseball league - which side would you say was getting the better deal?
5. Prince Fielder to Rangers for Ian Kinsler and $30 million from Tigers. Too early to tell the impact of this deal but considering that Fielder was signed by Detroit in the first place because Victor Martinez got hurt (and is now healthy) and moving Fielder now opens a spot for rookie Nick Castellanos at third my inclination is that this works for both teams.

I said these were my Top 5 so far. I think there's still a blockbuster waiting to happen.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Holy crap! What a great way to wake up in the morning! I went to bed when the Red Sox were losing 5-1 and I find out this morning they won 6-5! Holy crap!... Not sure what it says about me but I found Boy Dance Party pretty funny... I think in real life you would have to feed a Ticket Oak newborn infants at midnight on a full moon for the magic to actually work... Can you blame me for going to bed early? Boston fans already had their great comeback for the day when Tom Brady threw a TD pass with almost no time left to beat New Orleans and make Rob Ryan react like this...  Have you seen that "Hey lady that's diesel!" commercial? I hope some blonde out there mis-understands the point and puts diesel into her car... Heh heh - vintage birth control... Confession - when I was a kid I thought dining "al fresco" meant eating while wearing no underwear. Now as an adult when I hear a woman suggesting eating al fresco I immediately think she has no panties... Either the smartest or luckiest seal in in the world... I hope Boston sports fans realize how truly blessed we are... Do you want to see pictures of beautiful women wearing nothing but milk? Of course you do...

Jake Peavy Trade

Here's my initial thoughts on the trade that brings Jake Peavy to Boston and sends Jose Iglesias to the Tigers (via the White Sox).

At first glance this trade is a winner for all three teams involved. The Red Sox get a top of the line starter in Jake Peavy (the second best starter available after Cliff Lee); the White Sox get potential future all-star outfielder Avisail Garcia (and they shed Peavy's big salary), while the Tigers get perhaps the best defensive shortstop in the AL.

I do agree that the Red Sox sold high on Jose Iglesias but I would also say that the Tigers probably know exactly what they are getting in Iglesias. And they are pretty happy - Iglesias is just that good with his glove.

My first hope was that the Red Sox would land Cliff Lee but the Phillies asking price was just too high. Reportedly the Phillies wanted three top prospects plus the trading team to pick up all of Lee's massive contract. The Red Sox got Peavy for just one top prospect. How can you argue with that? I do find it ironic that the last time Peavy was on the trade market in 2009 he was viewed as the second best pitcher available after Roy Halladay and this time around he was second to Halladay's teammate Lee.

In regards to Iglesias - Boston has super shortstop prospect Xander Bogaerts waiting in the wings and it must be said that no matter how good Iglesias' glove-work was he would eventually be booed in Boston for not hitting. Iglesias is probably better off in Detroit.

EDIT: I meant to mention both Peavy's age (at 32 - he's basically 2-years older than Jon Lester and 2-years younger than John Lackey) and the effect he might have on the bullpen (Peavy is basically a quality start waiting to happen - helping the bullpen by lightening the load is a bonus that shouldn't be overlooked). Also here were two more good takes on the trade:

Ken Rosenthal and Richard Justice

The Granderson Trade

The Tigers beat the Yankees and the seeds of that defeat for the Yankees were sown back in December of 2009 when as part of a three-team trade Curtis Granderson was traded to the Yankees.

Here's what I wrote about the trade at the time.

Granderson supporters will say their guy hit 43 HR. Big deal! For the record - Austin Jackson had a .856 OPS with 260 total bases while Granderson had an .811 OPS and 293 TB. Let me also add that Jackson is under team control until 2016 and by the way he had a .353 batting average against the Yankees in the Tigers sweep of the series.

I'd say the Tigers won the trade even if it was just Granderson for Jackson but the Tigers also got Phil Coke (who had 2 saves against New York) and Max Scherzer (who beat the Yankees in game 4).

Red Sox Magic Number - 163 (Yes still)

The Red Sox haven't opened the season with 3 losses since the 1930's. The Red Sox are slight underdogs in this game (+111) and I think they would be a good pick. The Tigers are at home and probably slightly distracted by family Easter obligations. Clay Buchholz is a better pitcher than Max Scherzer. Pick the Sox today.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

If you had bet $100 on the first game of the first game in the Detroit Red Wings 23-game winning streak and let it ride for every game - that $100 would be up to over $3.9 million today...  Damn it! I started watching Downton Abbey and now I can't stop!!.... If anyone ever asked me if they could pay me in gum - I think I would punch them in the face... The Detroit Tigers are such huge favorites to win the AL Central (-$1800) that if you placed $100 on the other 4 teams in the division you would be guaranteed to win at least $1400 if the Tigers failed to win... How the greatest prankster in political history messed with Richard Nixon... Two things that I am giving up are playing solitaire on my computer and playing Keno when out at a bar. They are both wastes - one of time and one of money... The over / under for wins for the Red Sox is set at 87.5 games. I really like the over. Last year they got off to an awful start and completely collapsed in September and still managed to win 90 games... Happy 66th birthday to Boston Globe great Bob Ryan who announced his his retirement recently.

Justin Verlander

Let me say off the top that I'm not a supporter of Justin Verlander for AL MVP. I think Adrian Gonzalez is the best choice right now (though there's still a lot of games to play). I did want to comment on the idea that Verlander shouldn't get support because he's not a "everyday player". I think that argument is nonsense. And here's why.

The so called "everyday player" can play offense and can play defense. That's it. In regards to defense - there's a stat called put-outs (PO) to measure how many "outs" the player is "responsible" for (sorry for all the "scare" quotes - I can't help myself). Jacoby Ellsbury has 315 PO, Curtis Granderson has 287 PO and Dustin Pedroia has 231 PO. Of course Adrian Gonzalez has as of this morning exactly 1,000 PO on the season. His PO total is more than Ellsbury, Granderson and Pedroia combined but that's because Gonzo plays 1st base. It would be silly to say that even the worst fielding 1st baseman is more valuable than a Gold Glove caliber outfielder like Ellsbury or a Gold Glove winning 2nd baseman like Pedroia simply because the stone hands 1st baseman has more PO and is thus more involved with the defense. That would be like arguing that a pitcher shouldn't be an MVP because he's not as involved as an "everyday player".

Actually the point I was trying to make was the fact that Justin Verlander has 212 strikeouts plus 10 PO. That means he has been directly "responsible" for 222 outs this season on defense which would be fairly close to Pedroia's number of PO. So it can be argued that a dominating strikeout pitcher is almost as involved overall as any "everyday" player. So what about offense?

Well the argument against a pitcher for the MVP is usually that the pitcher is not as involved in a team's success as an everyday player. That he's only a factor every fifth game (which would be 20% of the time in a 5-man rotation). But if you think about it - on offense no matter who the player is they only get to be a factor once every nine at-bats (or about 11% of the time). The rest of the time the player is just watching from the bench or from the on-deck circle having just as much impact as the pitcher who started the game before and is hanging out on the bench. A player at the top of the order will naturally get more plate appearances than a guy batting ninth but even if he accounts for 15% of the team's plate appearances - how is that more important than a starting pitcher who is starting 20% of the games?

OK - you may argue that a starting pitcher may start a game but that doesn't mean he finishes a game and that point is fair enough. However, consider that the Tigers have played 131 games with a total of 1161 innings. Justin Verlander has accounted for 209.67 of those 1161 innings -which equates to 18% of all the team's innings pitched. Not even the best leadoff man is going to equate to 18% of the team's plate appearances.

So tell me again - why is a guy like Verlander less valuable to his team than a "everyday" player?

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Do you get the feeling that the Yankees management just wants to be rid of Jorge Posada? Here's a thought if that's true - if Jorge Posada continues to struggle then Yankees management should raffle off chances for a lucky fan to pinch hit for Posada in games that are out of reach one way or another (up or down by 4 runs after the 7th inning). The Yankees could charge $5 per ticket in the raffle and use that money to help pay Posada's $13 million salary... Yesterday I mentioned Donald Rumsfeld saying leaks about Osama bin Laden raid will make future raids more dangerous for soldiers and as if to illustrate that very point - Leon Panetta sends out memo warning CIA staff against leaks and of course the memo leaks... Trivia - the silent one in Penn and Teller duo changed his name from Raymond Joseph Teller to just Teller - he's the Madonna of magic... This is the greatest police report of all time (HT Baseball Crank)... Justin Verlander has made 10 starts this season - each of which was a quality start. Yet his record in those games is just 4-3 and the Tigers' record in those games is just 4-6... I laughed at this - you may find it tasteless: Can pregnant women go swimming?

Player Comparison

Take a look at these similar pitchers:

Player A: 50-67 / 5.05 ERA / 918 IP / 6 Seasons
Player B: 20-24 / 4.47 ERA / 493.2 IP / 8 Seasons

Pretty nondescript players who made close to the same money over their careers, they were even about the same size (both 6 foot and about 190 pounds). To cap it off these two guys were even traded for each other back in 1999.

Player A is Mike Maroth who just officially retired. Jason Beck had a very nice article on Mike Maroth - who as the article points out is best remembered by the average fan for losing 21 games back in 2003.

Player B is Bryce Florie who is probably best remembered by the average fan for suffering a severe facial injury in September 2000 at Fenway Park off a line drive by the Yankees' Ryan Thompson.

The thing is - no matter how many similarities the two players have the thing that struck me the most from stories I've read over the years of both players was how good of persons they were first and foremost. That's what made me take the time to post this in the first place.

Victor Martinez

So Victor Martinez has signed with the Tigers for 4-years and $50 million. Supposedly the Red Sox offered 3-years $36 million or 4-years $42 million. I don't blame Victor for taking the bigger offer from the Tigers nor do I blame the Red Sox for not matching the offer.

At the 2009 trading deadline - Martínez was traded from the Indians to the Red Sox for Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price. The Red Sox gave up some pretty good prospects (Masterson for whatever reason hasn't blossomed in Cleveland) and in exchange they got 1.5 years of Martinez and now they will also get two top daft packs (Detroit's 1st round and a sandwich pick). You can hardly quibble with this deal from Boston's perspective. If they overpaid what they thought Martinez would be worth 4-years from now (and have foregone the compensatory picks in the process)- then fans would have a gripe.

At this point it looks like Jarrod Saltalamacchia could be the starter at catcher and maybe Jed Lowrie at 3rd for Adrian Beltre. I know that won't be popular with the average fan but the truth is those changes won't result in that much of an offensive drop-off. It really won't.

Vaya con Dios Victor. Thanks for the memories.

The Person Who Really Cost Armando Galarraga a Perfect Game

I haven't seen anyone make this point regarding Armando Galarraga's near-perfect game last night so I'll make it because it is a pet peeve of mine.

Miguel Cabrera - not Jim Joyce - cost Armando Galarraga a perfect game. Watch the replay. Cabrera ranges too far away from 1st base to snag a ball that should have gone to the 2nd baseman - Carlos Guillen - who was in perfect position. Cabrera should have stayed at home. If he did that then Cabrera simply takes the throw and the game is over. Instead he ranged too far away from the bag which forces the pitcher to cover which sets in motion the events which will live in baseball infamy.

Jim Joyce will get the blame but Miguel Cabrera is the real culprit.

Armando Galarraga’s Perfect Game was a Lesson in Grace

Joe Posnanski once again pens a wonderful column. This time on Armando Galarraga's perfect gem and Jim Joyce's horrible mistake.

There have been 20 perfect games pitched in the history of major league baseball. If Jim Joyce made the right call last night then there would have been 21. People would have celebrated the great achievement for a few days and then slowly forgot it. I can remember Dallas Braden and Roy Halladay's perfect games but if you were to ask me who pitched the ones just before them - I would draw a blank. Perfect games and no-hitters get jumbled up in people's memories - mine included.

I will remember Armando Galarraga's perfect game that wasn't though. I'll remember how he was robbed of history by an honest mistake. I'll remember how he handled the situation with class and yes grace - grace in the religious metaphysical sense. I'll remember how he smiled.

Armando Galarraga's game and his reaction to it were truly unforgettable.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Joel Sherman with a nice little article today on Johnny Damon. Simply put - not re-signing Damon and trading for Curtis Granderson were both mistakes. Still early in the season and small sample size and all but consider the following - both Nick Johnson and Granderson have an OPS less than .700 and both have missed significant time being on the DL. Damon and Austin Jackson (the main player in the Granderson trade) have OPS's of .867 and .901 respectively. Damon has played in all 32 games so far for the Tigers.... OK - I'll say it! First Janet Napolitano and now Elana Kagan? You have to wonder if Obama has a thing for chubby white women (just kidding)... 15 Celebrities Servicing Invisible Men... If people are going to start retroactively taking back awards from people who used performance enhancing drugs then the 1988 AL MVP should go to Mike Greenwell. Jose Canseco admitted to using steroids that year and he won the award... "Let us cross over the river, and rest under the shade of the trees" famous last words of General Stonewall Jackson...

Johnny Damon Signs with Tigers

Johnny Damon has signed a one-year $8 million contract with the Detroit Tigers.

Just a reminder that back on December 22nd I wrote, "Prediction - Johnny Damon signs 2-year, $16 mil contract with Detroit." I was right about the dollar amount but wrong about the number of years.

Maybe later today I'll be done patting myself on the back.

Granderson to Yankees

Curtis Granderson went to the Yankees as the main part of a three team, seven player trade. As a Red Sox fan - I like this trade. I like it a lot.

Granderson's defense is over-rated and his offense has been in steady decline the past three years (his OPS has declined from .913 to .858 to .780 this season). He plain can't hit lefties (.210 career batting average against lefties) and if the Yankees plan to use him as a lead-off hitter then this year's line-up will be a step down from last year's line-up that had Johnny Damon setting the table. On top of all that - Granderson has a career .728 OPS against Boston.

The Yankees greatly weakened their bullpen with this trade by sending Phil Coke who was a rock last season. They also gave up two of their biggest trading chips in Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson - meaning that they probably cannot make another big trade this offseason without completely depleting their farm system.

The Yankees trading Austin Jackson is akin to the Red Sox trading Lars Anderson. It was a nice move by Detroit landing Jackson. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Jackson at least matched Granderson's .780 OPS from last season if the 22-year old Jackson is given the chance to start this season.

Adding Jackson also puts in question the Yankees determination to sign either Jason Bay or Matt Holliday.

As a Red Sox fan - I like this trade a lot.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

The Cleveland Indians are 1.5 games ahead (behind?) the Orioles for the worst record in the American League. Who saw that coming? I know I saw some people picking the Indians to go to the World Series in their pre-season picks. I can't recall anyone picking them to contend to be the worst team in the league... For all the complaining that their are no races this year in baseball - only less than half of the teams in the league (14) are numerically eliminated... Of all the teams that will make the playoffs - the Detroit Tigers have by far the worst road record (33-44). They also have the worst overall record of any team who will probably make the post-season. Which means they probably win their first round match-up with the Yankees... Alex Rodriguez needs one more RBI for 1696 and to pass Cal Ripken for 23rd place on the All-Time RBI list. He also needs just 1 more run for 1677 and to pass Mickey Mantle to move into a tie with Bid McFee for 26th place on the all-time runs list. I'm guessing that privately both these milestones mean a lot to A-Rod... Speaking of milestones - did you know that Todd Helton was tied with Babe Ruth for 44th place on the all-time doubles list with 506? Helton needs 4 more doubles to catch Rickey Henderson. As impressive as Helton's record of hitting doubles has been - he's only 5th among active players for two-baggers - behind Garrett Anderson (515), Ken Griffey (522), Manny Ramirez (530) and Ivan Rodriguez (547)... Quietly Florida's Chris Coghlan has made a pretty good case for NL ROY. Coghlan is hitting .314 with a respectable .836 OPS. I think JA Happ of the Phillies has the nod for the NL ROY though with a 10-4 record and a 2.77 ERA. In the AL - I think Rick Porcello of the Tigers deserves the award with a 14-9 record with a 4.14 ERA... Today is Rafael Palmeiro's 45th birthday. Has anyone ever fallen off the grid as quickly as finger-wagging Palmeiro?

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Happy Labor Day!... With the win over Oklahoma - many people are asking "can an undefeated BYU team realistically reach the national championship game?" I say yes. If BYU can also beat TCU, Florida State and Utah and if they are the only one or two undefeated teams in college football then they deserve to be in the championship game. SI's Stewart Mandel looks at the question in depth... If I'm a Detroit fan - then I'm hoping that Jim Leyland names Rick Pocello as the #3 starter in the playoffs over Jarrod Washburn. Good line-ups like the Red Sox or Yankees will pound Washburn... In most articles about Richard Seymour you'll notice that people bring up D-lineman Ron Brace as a reason the depth was there to trade Seymour. I'd appreciate it if people started referring to him as "Worcester's Ron Brace". Thanks... As pointed out at the Sports Frog - one of the rules to live by for every young man is never dip your wick in crazy. Shawn Merriman obviously never heard that piece of advice... It's been six years to the day since the passing of legend Warren Zevon. Play some Zevon today. Play it all night long...

Pick of the Day

Today I have a bit of a quandary. I'm trying to narrow my pick of the day (POTD) down from three choices which all have their own merits.

Choice 1 - Brazil over the USA in soccer. I think this game is a lock but I feel queezey betting against the US and the line at -$350 for Brazil would really punish me if I'm wrong.

Choice 2 - Kansas City with Zach Greinke pitching over the Pirates. The price is a bit high for a road team (KC -$150) but I think Greinke will dominate the Pittsburgh lineup.

Choice 3 - Tigers with Edwin Jackson (-$131) over Houston with Ancient Mariner Russ Ortiz taking the hill. The Tigers burned me the other night by blowing a 4 run lead against the Astros and Edwin Jackson always seems to bite me when I pick him or pick against him (if he was a college football team he'd be Syracuse).

Compromise is the answer I think. Today's POTD is a parlay using Brazil and Kansas City. Risking $100 would bring back $114.

POTD record 3-1 - plus $181.

Pick of the Day

Today's pick of the day (POTD) is Detroit with Justin Verlander taking the hill. Bodog has the Tigers as a slight -$119 favorite. The Astros are the oldest team in baseball (average age over 30 years) and I think Verlander's fastball may prove to be overpowering tonight. I'm looking for him to hit double digits in strikeouts.

POTD record 2-0.

Edgar Renteria

ESPN is reporting that the Tigers won't be bringing Edgar Renteria back next season. I can't say this is much of a surprise. Renteria was so-so in the field (16 errors) and at the plate this season (.699 OPS) for the Tigers. Letting him go is not a problem. It's what it cost the Tigers in the first place that is the problem.

To get Renteria - the Tigers had to give up pitcher Jair Jurrjens who is just 22-years old and whose 13 wins and 3.68 ERA would have tied for best on this year's Tigers team. Jurrjens is a stud pitcher who should be the anchor of the Braves staff for years to come.

I bring this up not to rank on Edgar Renteria or the Tigers but to point out another example of bringing in a aging "All-Star" at the cost of young talent that once again back-fired. This is the Steinbrenner method and it doesn't work. It will be interesting to see which teams learn from this and which teams repeat the mistake.

It will also be interesting to see where Renteria ends up next year. If he doesn't land a job - don't feel too bad for him. He's made over $68 million over the course of his career.