Blake Swihart

Interesting article on Red Sox top prospect Blake Swihart. I didn't know he played shortstop in high school. Nor did I know he could throw 98 MPH in high school (rocket arm for a catcher). Even knowing all this new info - I'm still torn about whether Boston should use Swihart as the key to acquiring Cole Hamels.

Best case scenario - Swihart is the second coming of Craig Biggio, a catcher athletic enough to move to second base and center field. Biggio is a Hall of Famer - so this is a very high ceiling. Still - would I trade a young Biggio for a pitcher who might be the Jake Peavy of the last three years (low value return) or who could be the next John Tudor (who went 21-8 in his age 31 season). Probably I don't pull the trigger on a Hamels trade if I'm convinced Swihart is the next Biggio.

Still a good case scenario - what if Swihart is the next Rich Gedman (a power arm pitcher in high school converted to catcher)? Gedman played 13 years and was a 2-time All-Star. Do I trade a young Rich Gedman for Hamels? After serious consideration I probably do.

And as Rob Bradford points out - what if Blake Swihart is the next Jesus Montero who was supposed to be the Yankees' can't miss catching prospect? In that case absolutely you pull the trigger.

It will be interesting to see what the Red Sox do. I'm still torn on the question.

State of the Red Sox

Everyone knows that the Red Sox top three priorities are starting pitching, starting pitching and starting pitching. Everyone also knows that Plan A to address starting pitching is Jon Lester. However, I agree with Tony Massarotti that pitching not Lester is the priority for Boston. I also agree with Brian MacPherson that the Red Sox need to cash in their trade chips for a starter or two no matter what happens with Lester.

It would be best for Boston to trade Yoenis Cespedes, Jackie Bradley Jr.. Allen Craig, Will Middlebrooks and Shane Victorino. These guys really have no place in the 2015 line-up right now (although Middlebrooks and Bradley could be stashed in Pawtucket and I'm curious if Craig can bounce back after his awful 2014 season - I wouldn't mind keeping him as the 13th position player instead of selling low on a potential All-Star). I have Daniel Nava and Brock Holt as my super-utility guys so they are not on my trade list.

Use the above guys plus some pieces from the well stocked farm system to trade for two of the following (maybe just one if Boston signs Lester); Jeff Samardzija, Jordan Zimmerman, Doug Fister, Matt Latos, Rick Porcello, and of course Cole Hamels. If the Red Sox add two veteran starters they would be in good shape and well positioned to make a move at the 2015 trading deadline.

I have faith in Ben Cherington that he'll make the right moves. I am worried, however, that on Friday Boston principal owner John Henry goes to visit Jon Lester and then on Saturday we see the pieces from Massarotti and MacPherson saying "this isn't all about Lester you know." The conspiracy theorist in me questions the timing of the articles.

Top 5 - Red Sox Pitching Trade Targets

With Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval in the fold - now all Red Sox fans attention tuns to pitching. My number one wish remains that they sign (re-sign?) Jon Lester but the Sox have a glut of players and a trade for at least one starter is bound to happen. Here's who I would consider the Top 5 pitching trade targets for Boston.

1. Cole Hamels Phillies - has 5-years and $110 million left on contract (if you include the 2019 option year). Maybe a package of Clay Buchholz, Jackie Bradley Jr., Allen Craig and Brandon Workman would be a good starting point.
2. Jordan Zimmerman Nationals - free agent after this season. Maybe a package of Yoenis Cespedis and Allen Craig get this done.
3. Doug Fister Nationals - free agent after this season offer same package as above.
4. Rick Porcello Tigers - trade him for Yoenis Cespedis straight up.
5. Cincinnati Reds - a number of pitchers here (Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, and Mike Leake) are all free agents after 2015 but the Reds may wait till mid-season to do any trading.

Red Sox Thoughts

The Red Sox have brought in both free agents Jon Lester and Pablo Sandoval for visits. My hope is that they sign (re-sign?) Lester and let Sandoval go back to the Giants.

Lester is a workhorse and I would not have an issue with a 6-year $127-140 million deal. I see the 31-year old Lester as a left-handed Curt Schilling who was able to pitch until he was 40-years old.

Everyone remembers the heroics of Sandoval in the post-season but in the regular season he's basically just a 6-hole hitter. Brian MacPherson has a good breakdown of what Sandoval is and isn't. Don't over pay for that!

Let me also say that I wouldn't mind if Clay Buchholz was traded as part of a package for Cole Hamels or straight up for Doug Fister (I think 3-years of Buchholz at $38.5 million total is a good value for the free agent to be Fister).

So let it be written - so let it be done!

State of the Red Sox

The state of the Red Sox can be summed up in six words, "Too many outfielders, not enough starters."

Here's the outfielders Boston has under contract for next season; Yoenis Cespedes, Shane Victorino, Rusney Castillo, Allen Craig, Daniel Nava, Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, and Brock Holt. You only play 3 outfielders at a time - so having 8 seems a bit much. Even if you say Brock Holt and Mookie Betts are really infielders - that still leaves 6 outfielders for 3 starting jobs. Something has to give.

Meanwhile - here are the starters that are under control for next year; Clay Buchholz, Joe Kelly, Brandon Workman, Rubby Del La Rosa, Anthony Ranaundo and Allen Webster. Does any of those names jump out at you as a number 1 or 2 starter? Me neither.

So what to do? The obvious first answer is to sign Jon Lester to a long term deal. At this point 6-years for $150 million is what it will probably take. Then you hope Lester is more like Andy Pettitte when it comes to durability and less like Jack McDowell. 

Even if you sign Lester - a rotation of Lester, Buchholz, Kelly, Del La Rosa and pick a name doesn't sound like a playoff contender. Signing free agent James Shields would obviously help but what are the odds of one team signing 2 of the top 3 free agent pitchers? That's why a starter is probably the number one trade priority for the team this off-season. The most obvious name would be Cole Hamels who is owed $94 million over the next 4 seasons. 

The good news is that the class of free agent outfielders this year is pretty weak - and guess who has outfielders to spare? Pretty sad but I'm looking forward more to the hot stove than to the rest of the season. I think many fans feel the same.

State of the Red Sox

Here's five thoughts on the recent shake-up of the Red Sox roster.

1. The biggest difference between the pre-trade deadline line-up and the line-up today is the fact that Boston went from having two players (Ortiz, Napoli) with 25+ HR potential to having five (Ortiz, Napoli, Middlebrooks, Craig and Cespedes). I included Allen Craig even though the most HR he's hit in a season was 22 (but it was in just 119 games). That's a huge difference in pop in the line-up.

2. I have to wonder if Shane Victorino was healthy enough to pass a deadline physical whether he would have been traded too. My guess is he's shut down for the season and dealt once he's healthy. Did I say guess or hope?

3. How do the Red Sox hope to compete for top talent if they are not willing to pay the going rate? The Yankees gave Masahiro Tanaka a 7-year $155 million deal while Boston management looks like it was unwilling to give Jon Lester something comparable to a 5-year $110 million deal.

4. Conversely it should be noted that Oakland had the best record in baseball while relying mainly on young arms (plus 30-year olds Scott Kazmir and Jesse Chavez). Ace Sonny Gray 24, Tommy Milone 27, Dan Straily 25, and Drew Pomeranz 25 have made a combined 53 starts for the first place A's this season. Compare that to Boston's young arms of Brandon Workman 25, Rubby Del La Rosa 25, Allan Webster 24, and Anthony Ranaudo 24. It looks like Boston is looking to use the A's blueprint next season.

5. The speculation is that with payroll down to just $95 million for next season the Red Sox will use their stockpile of prospects to make a big splash in the trade market. The focus has been on Giancarlo Stanton but the two names I'd like to see on a Boston Opening Day roster next season are Troy Tulowitzki or Cole Hamels. Both would be great.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

If Jake Peavy was a free agent in any fantasy baseball leagues last night - I'm guessing that he's not this morning after pitching a complete game shutout... Teddy Bruschi conquers Kilimanjaro... I tend to think of Jeff Samardzija as kind of a flop for the Cubs but he has decent ERA (2.96) and is striking out more than a batter per inning pitched (27 K's in less than 25 IP)... Sherlock Holmes as a series of graphic novels... Has there been a bigger turnaround this year than the Pirates Charlie Morton? Last year he was 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA but this season he's 5-1 with a 2.62 ERA... This was the coolest moment from the NBA Draft Lottery... This is funny if true. Supposedly the Tropicana Field PA system played John Fogerty's Centerfield for Jorge Posada's at bats. You know "put me in coach/I'm ready to play"... Jesus Mary and Jerome would be a great name for a band... The Phillies' Cole Hamels has an impressive 2.14 ERA in the 8 starts since his first disastrous start vs the Mets... Very funny but I'm guessing they are not real - Best Damn You Auto Corrects of April... Todd Helton is quietly having very good season - hitting .323 with 6 HR and 20 RBI. Amazing that his .323 is actually below his career .324 mark... Tweet of the Day from @RumsfeldOffice:

Secrecy before the OBL operation was key to its success. The leaks since ensure the next one will be more dangerous for our troops.

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Red Sox fans have about had it with Daisuke Matsuzake. After an injury plagued 2009 season - a season in which Dice-K's conditioning was in question - the Japanese import is 1-1 with a 9.90 ERA.

Fans outside of Boston may not understand the frustration Red Sox fans have with a guy who just 2 seasons ago was 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA. Teams would love to have a guy like that right? Here's the two main reasons the frustration exists:

- Dice-K is a tight rope walker. The year he won 18 games it was not uncommon for Dice-K to walk the bases full, then strike out two batters and then get a fly ball out. Seriously. People were cracking jokes about Dice-K only feeling comfortable with the bases loaded. If a few of those fly balls turned into Texas-leaguers then suddenly he's 12-12 with a 4.10 ERA. Take the other night for example. In the first inning there was a grounder that was 50/50 being a double play. If it is a double play then he's out of the inning with just one run surrendered. He probably gets the win with 2 earned runs for the night. Instead he gave up 4 runs that inning and 5 for the night BUT STILL GOT THE W! Boston fans have enough drama in their lives. They don't need a tightrope walker in their lives to add more seemingly self-created drama.

- If the Red Sox are going to have a guy who can either throw a shutout or bomb completely - the fans would prefer that guy be Tim Wakefield. It's really that simple. Wakefield is a hard working old guy who does more community service than anyone on the team. Dice-K is taking Wake's spot in the rotation. Many fans aren't happy with that.

If anyone can sympathize with this situation it will probably be Philly fans. In 4 seasons with the Red Sox - Daisuke is 38-22 with a 4.14 ERA. In 5 seasons with the Phillies - Cole Hamels 50-36 with a 3.70 ERA. In both cases the numbers don't tell the story. Maybe the two teams could trade tightrope walkers?